疫情中，富裕国家房价逆势高涨的背后原因 | 经济学人精讲第780期
文章导读
本文选自《经济学人》9月26日刊文章。现在全球陷入疫情危机中，主要经济体处于封锁状态，但几大富裕国家的房价却逆势高涨，美国房价比一年前上涨5%，德国上涨11%，英国在八月份的房价创下了历史新高。房价飙升的背后，是政府政策和人们购房欲望的双重推动。为应对疫情，大部分政府采取宽松货币政策，降低贷款利率，补贴家庭收入，停止征收购房印花税；于此同时，受疫情影响在家办公的人们这时候更想换一套更大更宽敞的房子，推动了房地产市场的繁荣。但高房价让那些无法凑够首付买房的年轻人更加不安，再加上抗击疫情的经济费用主要由年轻人来承担，这让问题更加棘手，本文认为政府应该建立监管良好的房屋租赁市场，征收房产税来抑制房价，让国家健康发展。
选文精讲
The house party returns 买房党回来了
Booming house prices spell more trouble for the social contract
不断上涨的房价给社会契约带来了更多的麻烦
spell trouble: 带来麻烦
Low interest rates and changing preferences explain housing’s strength during the pandemic
低利率和变化的偏好解释了房地产在大流行期间的强劲表现
Oct 3rd 2020 |
STOCKMARKETS HAVE not had a good September, but their strength for the year as a whole remains a source of wonderment. Less noticed has been the equally remarkable buoyancy of another asset class: housing. Many rich countries are seeing house prices surge even as their rate of infections is rising for a second time. In the second quarter, although economies were under lockdown, house prices rose in eight out of ten high- and middle-income countries. According to unofficial series—which are timelier though less accurate than government data—America’s house prices are up 5% on a year ago. Germany’s are 11% higher. Britain’s hit an all-time high, in nominal terms, in August. The boom shares some causes with the strength of stockmarkets, but reveals more about the pandemic’s effect on economies. It is also more consequential.
股票市场9月份表现不佳，但其全年表现仍令人惊叹。还有一种资产同样高涨但不太为人所注意——房地产。在许多富裕国家，尽管他们正在迎来第二波新冠感染率的上升，但房价依然在飙升。在第二季度，尽管经济处于封锁之中，十个高收入和中等收入国家中有八个的房价上涨。根据非官方的数据（这一数据比政府的数据更及时，但没那么准确），美国的房价比一年前上涨了5%，德国上涨了11%，英国在八月份的房价创下了名义上的历史新高。房价的上涨与股票市场的坚挺有一定的关系，但更多地揭示了大流行对经济的影响，这个影响也更大。
Like stocks, house prices are being supported by loose monetary policy. In the past year the rate at which Americans can obtain 30-year fixed-rate mortgages has fallen by roughly a quarter, to about 2.9%. As well as making monthly mortgage payments more affordable, low rates make houses more attractive, because they depress the returns on alternative safe investments. Other economic policies are also helping. Mass government support for household incomes, as well as mortgage-repayment holidays, have saved jobless workers from having to sell their homes, as they otherwise might. Britain has temporarily suspended stamp duty, a tax on buying houses.
fixed-rate mortgage: 固定利率贷款
monthly mortgage payment: 月供
mortgage-repayment：抵押偿付
stamp duty：印花税
和股票一样，房价也受到宽松货币政策的支撑。去年，美国30年期固定利率抵押贷款的利率下降了大约四分之一，降至约2.9%。低利率不仅使月供更容易负担，还让房子更具吸引力，因为它们压低了其他安全投资的回报。其他经济政策对此也有所帮助，政府大规模扶持家庭收入，以及抵押贷款还贷假期，让失业的工人不必卖掉他们的房子，否则他们可能会卖掉房子。英国已经暂时停止征收购房印花税。
感谢阅读