经济学人财经||美联储逾十年来首度降息 / 开普饭

Interest rates set by the Federal Reserve have been rising since 2015. The gradual approach, explained the Fed’s chairman, Jerome Powell, last September, was intended to leave time to see how well the economy could absorb each raise. “So far the economy has performed very well, and very much in keeping with our expectations,” he said back then.

自2015年以来，美联储一直不断抬升利率。美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)去年9月解释说，渐进的加息节奏是为了给市场留出时间，看看美国经济能否消化每一次加息。“到目前为止，经济表现十分亮眼，很大程度上符合我们的市场预期，”他当时表示。

Now America is being treated to what some are calling “Powell’s pirouette”. On July 31st Mr Powell announced America’s first interest-rate cut in over a decade, of 0.25 percentage points (see chart). At the press conference after the announcement he blamed weak global growth, trade policy uncertainty and muted inflation. “We’re trying to sustain the expansion,” he said.

现在美国正面临所谓的“鲍威尔式转体”。当地时间7月31日，鲍威尔宣布美国逾十年来首度将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点 (见图表)。在当天结束货币政策例会后的新闻发布会上鲍威尔将此次此次降息归咎于全球经济增长疲软、贸易政策的不确定性以及温和的通胀压力。他表示: “我们将继续维持美国经济温和扩张。”

注：

“Powell’s pirouette.” That’s what some have called the Fed chief’s gradual easing of an interest rate that’s been rising since 2015.

The move was widely expected, though not universally understood. By many measures America’s economy still seems buoyant. After dipping a little, earlier in the year, consumer confidence is almost back to its post-recovery peak. Figures published on July 26th revealed that Americans are still spending enthusiastically. Some recent risks have subsided, notably those to do with the public finances. On July 22nd politicians agreed on a deal to raise America’s debt limit, and to avoid steep spending cuts. According to Oxford Economics, a consultancy, had they failed, the squeeze could have knocked 0.4 percentage points off real gdp growth.

这一利率变动符合市场广泛预期，虽然并未得到普遍认可。从各方面来看，美国经济表面上仍然欣欣向荣。虽然今年年初消费者信心略微下降了一些，但现在几乎已回升至经济衰退后复苏时期的顶峰。据7月26日数据显示，美国人消费热情依旧高涨。最近的一些风险，特别是涉及公共财政方面的风险已经减弱。7月22日，政客们一致同意提高美国债务上限，避免开支大幅削减。咨询机构牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)表示，该政策一旦失败，开支紧缩可能导致GDP实际增长下降0.4个百分点。

注：

1. buoyant: tend to rise趋于上升的，上涨的

例句： a buoyant economy 欣欣向荣的经济 ——《朗文英汉双解词典》

2. dip: to move down, or to make something move down, usually for just a short time （使）下降，下落

例句：We watched the sun dip below the horizon. 我们看着太阳落到地平线下。

She dipped her head and spoke into the microphone.

她低下头对着麦克风讲话。 ——《朗文英汉双解词典》

3. subside: if a feeling, pain,sound,etc subsides, it gradually becomes less and then stops（感情、痛苦、声音等）逐渐减弱；平静下来，平息=die down

例句： Simon waited until the laughter subsided.

西蒙一直等到笑声平息下来。 ——《朗文英汉双解词典》

4. squeeze:(noun) a situation in which wages, prices, borrowing money etc are strictly controlled or reduced 拮据；紧缩

例句： a credit squeeze 信贷紧缩 ——《朗文英汉双解词典》

5. Knock off: to reduce the price or value of sth 降价；减价；贬值

——《牛津英汉双解词典》

6.衍生资料：

http://mil.chinanews.com/gj/2019/07-26/8907604.shtml

But businesses do not appear to share consumers’ confidence. Non-residential investment shrank in the second quarter of the year. Residential investment has fallen for six consecutive quarters. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, investors are pricing government debt at a level that has historically been associated with a one-in-three chance of a recession within 12 months.

但企业似乎没有消费者那么有信心。今年第二季度非住宅投资出现萎缩，住宅投资已连续六个季度环比下降。纽约联邦储备银行 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)数据显示，投资者对政府债券定价之低，历史上在12个月内出现经济衰退的可能性是三分之一。

注:

Price：to decide the price of something that is for sale 给...定价

注:

1. abate: to become less strong or decrease减弱，减轻，减少

例句：We waited the storm to abate.我们等风暴减弱。 ——《朗文英汉双解词典》

2. subdued: an activity that is subdued does not have as much excitement as you would expect（活动等）冷清的，沉闷的

例句：The housing market is fairly subdued. 住宅市场低迷。

3. precarious: a precarious situation or state is one which may very easily or quickly become worse （局势或状态）不稳定的；不安全的，危险的

4. project: (verb) to calculate what sth will be in the future, using the information you have now 预计，推断

5. pickup: an improvement in sth which will be good for economic success （对经济有益的）好转 ——《朗文英汉双解词典》

Finally, as Mr Powell emphasised on July 31st, inflation is uncomfortably weak. On a measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices, it sagged to 1.6% in June, well below the Fed’s 2% target. That has paved the way for members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee to adjust the path of interest rates downwards and to implement an “insurance cut”—a tactical reduction intended to keep the expansion alive. With interest rates so low, there is little room for an aggressive move. Rate-setters hope that a small and speedy cut will mean one will not be needed.

最后，正如鲍威尔先生在7月31日所强调的，通胀率已经低至让市场不安的水平。剔除了波动较大的食物和能源价格后的统计数据表明，六月的核心通胀率下降至1.6%，远低于美联储2%的目标水准。而这也为美联储利率制定委员会成员们提供了调整契机，他们开始下调利率，并实施“保险性降息”——旨在维持经济扩张势头的策略性下调。而现行市场利率如此之低，留给美联储激进操作的空间也很有限。因此利率制定者们希望现在的一次快速小幅利率修正，可以避免未来需要采用更激进的措施。

As Mr Powell finished speaking on July 31st, market prices reflected a 73% chance of a further cut of 0.25 percentage points this year. But he studiously avoided committing to anything more, saying that any further cuts would depend on both incoming data and “evolving risks to the outlook”.

在鲍威尔先生7.31讲话结束后，市场行情显示有73%的可能性今年还会迎来一次25基点的利率下调。但鲍威尔刻意没有做出任何保证，只是说任何未来的进一步削减都取决于市场数据和“不断变化的前景风险”。

A further cut would not be universally welcome. Catherine Mann of Citigroup, a bank, is sceptical that the latest round of monetary easing will boost business confidence enough to rekindle investment. The Trump administration’s trade policy, not the cost of capital, is holding businesses back, she thinks. She fears that the Fed may be causing asset prices and the broader economy to move apart, generating risks to financial stability.

进一步的降息可能不会广受欢迎。花旗集团银行的凯瑟琳·曼对最新一轮的货币宽松政策能否提振企业信心，重新点燃投资热情深表怀疑。她认为阻碍市场发展的是川普政府的贸易策略，并非资本成本。她担忧美联储的政策将会导致资产价格与整体经济背离，引发金融市场稳定性风险。

注：

关于最后一句的理解，彭博找的另外一篇报道有解释道，即量化宽松、强劲的增长率和低通胀率，高股价会使得美国政府在贸易政策中采取更强硬的措施，增加全球经济风险

Citigroup economists Cesar Rojas and Catherine Mann last week wrote that “looser monetary policy amid robust growth, low inflation and high stock prices could indeed give the U.S. administration additional room for a more aggressive trade policy stance.” That wouldn’t be good, they said, as it “would prolong the uncertainty currently clouding the global economy.”

Nonetheless investors could react badly if Mr Powell fails to meet their expectations, warns Neil Shearing of Capital Economics, a consultancy. A strengthening dollar, wobbling equity markets or tightening credit conditions could then bounce the Fed into a further burst of loosening.

尽管如此，咨询公司资本经济(Capital Economics)的尼尔·希林(Neil Shearing)警告称，如果鲍威尔先生未能达到投资者预期，可能会招致投资者的强烈回应。美元走强、股市动荡或信贷环境收紧，都可能促使美联储进一步放松货币政策。

注：
bounce sb into sth.

迫使…做（不情愿做的事）to force someone to do something that they do not want to do, usually relating to politics:

e.g. Attempts have been made to bounce member states into decisions with major financial implications.

已经努力迫使成员国制定具有重大金融意义的决策。

America’s monetary-policymakers also need to consider the actions of other countries’ central banks, which have already started to ease. Julia Coronado of MacroPolicy Perspectives, a consultancy, points out that there are limits to how much the Fed can depart from the global trend before it starts causing problems in capital markets. Too much divergence and the dollar will strengthen, tightening supplies of dollar credit and further crimping global trade. Mr Powell has executed a fine pirouette. But he is going to need even more fancy footwork in the coming year.

美国的货币政策制定者也需要考虑其他国家央行的动作，这些央行已经开始放松银根。经济咨询公司MacroPolicy Perspectives的茱莉亚·科罗纳多（Julia Coronado）指出，在这一全球趋势造成资本市场问题之前，美联储偏离这一趋势的范围是有限的。分歧过大，美元将走强，收紧美元信贷供应，且进一步抑制全球贸易。鲍威尔先生已完成一次漂亮的脚尖旋转，但在未来一年里，他将需要更多花哨的步法。

注：

1.divergence

(意见、态度等的)分歧，差异A divergence is a difference between two or more things, attitudes, or opinions.

e.g. There's a substantial divergence of opinion within the party.

党内存在着重大的意见分歧。

e.g. This overall figure conceals wide divergences between the main industrial countries.

这项综合数据掩盖了主要工业国家间的巨大分歧。

2.crimp

限制;减少To crimp something means to restrict or reduce it.

e.g. The dollar's recent strength is crimping overseas sales and profits.

美元最近的坚挺影响了国外的销量和利润。

3.dollar credit美元信贷，美元贷款

https://m.csai.cn/loan/1237465.html （扩展阅读:美元贷款和本币贷款区别是什么美元贷款真的更吃香吗？）

翻译组：

Olivia，教育从业者，经济学人粉丝

Leon, 男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉

Lucia ，女，翻译学硕士三年制，经济学人粉丝

Summer（琚儿），女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯

校对组：

Emily，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝

Alex，男，工科研究生，文学与科学爱好者，经济学人忠实读者

观点|评论|思考

本期评论员

Jessie Lulu, 金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人

美国的加息周期结束了，横跨超过三年，期间总共9次加息。

7.31日的降息25bp被鲍威尔称作一次“保险式降息”，但是以目前2.15%的基准利率是不足以应对下一次衰退的。而欧元区和日本人的情况更是糟糕，0%的利率该怎么应对衰退？央行的工具箱真的不足以应对衰退了？

Ray Dalio不这么认为。他把货币政策分成三类。第一类货币政策主要是升息降息，第二类货币政策主要是QE量化宽松，第三类货币政策主要是一种财政货币相结合的政策，谁得到资金以及货币以多直接的方式提供取决于具体的政策。

这张图纵轴是第三类货币政策提供货币的直接程度，横轴是政策对应的是私人部门还是公共部门。不要指出的是，第三类货币政策和前两类政策主要不同的地方在于它作用的对象从储蓄者/投资者转变成了消费者。同时，在未来的世界中税收可能会是比利率更加有效的逆周期调节的工具。虽然我们目前生活的经济中，央行的操作方式主要是用利率来调节经济运行的速度，经济太热就让借贷变得更昂贵所以加息，经济太差了就让借贷变得更便宜鼓励信贷增长来促进经济所以降息，但是在未来因为利率会长时间停留在零的位置上，所以税率会变成另一个更好的调节工具。如果政府能将税收的制定权力交给央行的话，央行就可以在经济太热的时候调高税率，在经济太冷的时候调低税率，原理和央行调整利率的逻辑是一样的。但是，再一次强调，作用对象从投资者/储蓄者变成了更广泛的消费者群体。

上图罗列的各式各样的第三类货币政策的有些类型在最近几年已经被有些国家尝试过了，例如中国在最近几年经济下行的时候央行就总是鼓励甚至催促商业银行给小微企业贷款，被形容为“精准滴灌”，即钱只流到小微企业那里而不是大型国企，具体的政策方法是给小微企业贷款占总贷款达到一定比例即可享受一定的准备金率下调，也就是说你给小微企业贷的多你就可以少给我央妈钱。对应的是上图右下角。

还有比如央行向商业银行的超额准备金收负利率，但是对要求准备金给予正利率的优惠，这样可以提高商业银行的盈利水平，最近的欧洲日本英国都有做此尝试。对应右侧第三个。

还有很多很多例子，比如央行会把钱给半私有的机构（一般是发展银行）让它们来执行相关财政支出，比如近几年来的中国就在此列，央行给三大政策性银行资金，政策性银行执行央行希望的比如基建类的稳增长的任务。

具体的政策类型各式各样，但是可以看出来央行有相较于前两种传统货币政策多的多的第三类货币政策的方法。需要指出的是，财政政策历来并不是应对衰退的首选，因为通过一项政府财政支出需要冗长的国会法案的通过，而这样长时间的制定财政计划和使其获得通过让财政政策的即时性远远不如货币政策。同时在短时间内制定出的财政支出计划往往缺乏全面的考虑，使得很多项目最后发现是不可持续和盈利的，那么其有效性也有一定的折扣。

但是我猜争论最大的恐怕是公平问题。因为第三类货币政策中涉及到很多收入再分配的问题，比如向低收入者提供救济补助、半独立机构得到央行的资金执行对应财政支出任务，但是为什么低收入者就可以在衰退时得到补助？什么收入水平才是低收入者？为什么是这个半独立机构得到资金而不是另一个？很显然，在运用第三类货币政策之前，财政的透明性以及关于公平的争论先要被严肃探讨一番。

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经济学人财经||美联储逾十年来首度降息

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