高度 | 基辛格：新冠大流行将永远改变世界秩序
作者
基辛格
“如果有人在我1971年第一次踏上中国土地时向我描绘中国今天的样子，即使只是想象一下高楼林立的景象，我也一定会说那是不可能的，……如今，这一切都已经成为了现实。我非常有信心，下一个十年他们甚至会超越他们在过去的所有成绩，如果我能有幸见证的话。”—— 基辛格
中文部分内容转自中评网（原标题：基辛格：新冠大流行将永远改变世界秩序），英文部分来自华尔街日报（原标题：The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order，源网页：https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-pandemic-will-forever-alter-the-world-order-11585953005）。可点击“阅读原文”了解更多详情。
中评社华盛顿4月4日电（记者 余东晖）美国政坛元老基辛格指出，新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序，各国领导人在应对当前危机时要着眼于未来的建设。他坚持要美国维持“自由世界秩序”的原则，但当前需要保持克制，确定优先顺序。
美国前国务卿基辛格3日在《华尔街日报》发表题为“冠状病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序”的文章，希望美国在开始规划新时代的紧急工作时，保护其公民免受疾病的侵害。
经历过“二战”战火的基辛格指出，与那时不同的是，现在在分裂化的美国，要克服前所未有的障碍，有效率和有远见的政府是必要的。维持公众的信任对社会团结、社会之间的关系以及国际和平与稳定至关重要。
“事实上，在冠状疫情之后，世界将不再是原来的样子。现在对于过去的争论只会让我们更难去做该做的事。”基辛格写道。
当基辛格写这篇文章时，新冠疫情正在美国飙升。他认为，美国政府在避免立即发生灾难方面做了扎实的工作。最终的考验将是病毒的传播是否能被控制住，然后以能保持公众对美国人自我管理能力的信心的方式和规模逆转形势。
基辛格指出，应对这场危机的努力，无论多么巨大和必要，都不应挤掉启动向“后冠状病毒秩序”过渡的平行事业的紧迫任务。
基辛格指出，各国领导人主要是在国家层面上处理这场危机，但这种病毒对社会的溶解作用是不分国界的。虽然对人类健康的攻击可能是暂时的，但它所引发的政治和经济动荡可能会持续几代人。
基辛格强调，没有一个国家，甚至美国也无法单靠一个国家的努力战胜病毒。解决当前的需要，最终必须与全球合作的愿景和计划相结合。“如果我们不能同时做这两件事，我们将面临最坏的结果”。
从“马歇尔计划”和“曼哈顿计划”中汲取教训，基辛格建议，美国有义务在三个领域做出重大努力：
第一，增强全球应对传染病的能力。需要开发感染控制的新技术和技术，并在大规模人群中开发相应的疫苗。城市、州和地区必须不断做好准备，通过在科学前沿进行储备、合作规划和探索。
第二，努力治愈世界经济的创伤。从速度和全球范围来看，冠状病毒引发的经济收缩与历史上任何已知的情况都不同。应设法减轻即将到来的混乱对世界上最脆弱人群的影响。
第三，维护自由世界秩序的原则。启蒙思想家重新构建了这一概念，认为合法国家的目的是满足人民的基本需求:安全、秩序、经济福祉和正义。在一个繁荣有赖于全球贸易和人员流动的时代，这场大流行引发了一场时代错误（anachronism），让城墙环绕的城市再起。
基辛格称，世界上的民主国家需要捍卫和维持他们的启蒙价值观。在全球范围内放弃平衡权力与合法性，将导致社会契约在国内和国际上瓦解。然而，这一合法性和权力的千年问题不能与克服新冠病毒的努力同时解决。无论是国内政治还是国际外交，各方都需要克制。必须确定优先次序。
最后基辛格表示，各国领导人面临的历史性挑战是，在应对危机的同时建设未来。失败可能会引火烧身。
以下是本文英文原版
APRIL 4, 2020
The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order
Wall Street Journal
By Henry A. Kissinger
The USNS Comfort hospital ship travels under the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge in New York, March 30. PHOTO: DIMITRIOS KAMBOURIS/GETTY IMAGES
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.
The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away.
The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans’ ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.
Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.
Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.
Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable populations.
Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people.
The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.
We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.
Mr. Kissinger served as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations.
来源：中评网 & WSJ