TE||Fed and Federico
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Fed and Federico
美联储与费德里科·斯托尔兹涅格
英文部分选自经济学人Finance and economics版块
Emerging markets
新兴市场
Fed and Federico
美联储 与 费德里科·斯托尔兹涅格（前阿根廷央行行长）
Why emerging markets get in a tizz about their currencies
新兴市场为何出现货币恐慌？
IMAGINE if Milton Friedman had been put in charge of a central bank, only to lose his job for expanding the money supply too quickly. Or if Robert Shiller, the Nobel-prizewinning author of “Irrational Exuberance”, were given a similar post, only to depart having allowed a stockmarket bubble to inflate. That is the kind of irony that attended the resignation under pressure of Federico Sturzenegger as governor of Argentina’s central bank on June 14th, a casualty of deepening turmoil in emerging markets.
假设米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)被任命为央行行长，加快扩张货币供给可能会成为他丢失工作的唯一理由。又或者，如果诺贝尔文学奖得主罗伯特·希勒 (Robert Shiller)——《非理性繁荣》(IrRational Exuberance)的作者，被授予类似的职位，也会因为任由股市泡沫的膨胀而离职。令人讽刺的是，6月14日，阿根廷央行行长费德里科·斯托尔兹涅格（Federico Sturzeneggeras）迫于种种压力递交辞呈，，而他的离职也进一步加剧了新兴市场的动荡。
米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman): 1976年获诺贝尔经济学奖, 美国当代经济学家、芝加哥大学教授、芝加哥经济学派代表人物之一，货币学派的代表人物。以研究宏观经济学、微观经济学、经济史、统计学、及主张自由放任资本主义而闻名。
罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller): 2013年因“资产价格实证分析方面的贡献”获得诺贝尔经济学奖，1946年3月26日生于底特律，美国经济学家，学者，畅销书作家。当年凭借基本面分析、以一部《非理性繁荣》准确预测了互联网泡沫的罗伯特·希勒（Robert J. Shiller）教授近来对全球主要股票市场进行了独到的分析
Mr Sturzenegger was a former professor at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in Buenos Aires. His most-cited paper showed that stated currency policy was often a poor guide to actual policy. Many countries claim to let their currencies float freely but in fact “intervene recurrently to stabilize their exchange rates”. Their deeds often belie their words.
斯托尔兹涅格先生曾是布宜诺斯艾利的斯托尔夸托·迪特拉（Torcuato Di Tella）大学的教授。他的被引用率最高的论文表明：官方所公开的货币政策往往是实际政策的不良向导。 许多国家声称让其货币自由浮动，但事实上“政府经常干预以稳定汇率”。政府常常言行不一。
Mr Sturzenegger lost his job for much the same thing. Financial markets struggled to reconcile his statements on the currency with his management of it, eroding his credibility. After Argentina agreed on a $50bn loan from the IMF, he said he would intervene in the foreign-exchange market only in “disruptive situations”. But when the peso soon came under renewed pressure, he resumed selling foreign-exchange reserves, which fell by $665m on June 12th-13th. He gave up the fight on June 14th, allowing the currency to drop by 5.3% against the dollar on a day that ended with his departure.
斯托尔兹涅格先生也因几乎同样的事情无法继续履职。金融市场很难将其对货币的观点与其实际对货币调控手段所结合在一起，因此其信誉受损。在阿根廷与国际货币基金组织（IMF）达成500亿美元（USD）贷款协议后，他表示只有在“破坏性局面”下才会干预外汇市场。但当比索面临新一轮（下跌）压力时，他重新采取抛售外汇储备的举措，致使 6月12日至13日的外汇储备减少了6.65亿美元。6月14日，他放弃了这场斗争，一天内比索对美元（USD）的汇率暴跌5.3%，最终导致他的离任。
Why do policymakers in emerging markets fret so much over exchange rates? A weak currency, after all, makes a country’s exports and assets more competitive. And when capital flees, it can be better to let the currency fall than to put up interest rates (and throttle growth) in an effort to keep the exchange rate stable.
为什么新兴市场的决策人如此担忧汇率呢？毕竟，疲软的货币政策让国家的出口和资本更富有竞争力。当资本外流时，为了稳定汇率，更好的办法是让货币贬值，而不是提高利率（阻碍经济增长）。
One reason to worry is inflation. Weak- er currencies push up import costs, jeopar- dising price stability. The plummeting Turkish lira, for example, has hampered the fight against inflation in a country where prices respond quickly to currency weakness. In response, Turkey’s central bank, like Argentina’s, has been forced to raise interest rates dramatically, despite the opposition of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeking re-election as president.
通货膨胀是担忧的原因。疲软的货币政策推高进口成本，危害价格稳定。在一个国家价格会迅速对疲软的货币政策做出反应。例如，（国际汇率市场上）急剧下跌的土耳其里拉阻碍了（土耳其国内）对抗通货膨胀的斗争。作为回应，像阿根廷央行一样，土耳其中央银行被迫大幅度提高利率。尽管此举遭到谋求连任的土耳其总理埃尔多安的反对。
According to Capital Economics, finan- cial conditions in both countries have tightened by more this year than they did in the same period of 2013, the year of the “taper tantrum”, when America’s Federal Reserve said it would eventually slow its pace of quantitative easing. In many other countries, however, this year’s tantrum is not yet as bad as its forerunner. Brazil’s cur- rency has fallen by 9% since mid-April. But the central bank has refrained from raising interest rates, insisting that there is no “me- chanical relationship” between recent shocks and monetary policy.
根据资本经济，今年两国的经济状况，与2013年同期相比，更为紧缩。2013年被称为“QE缩减恐慌症”，当时美联储宣称最终会放缓量化宽松的速度。然而，在许多国家，今年的QE缩减恐慌不像先前者那样糟糕。自四月中旬以来，巴西货币贬值9%，但是央行限制提高利率，坚持认为最近的动荡与货币政策之间没有“机械化固定的关系”。
Taper Tantrum：Taper tantrum is the term used for the 2013 surge in U.S. Treasury yields, which resulted from the Federal Reserve's use of tapering to gradually reduce the amount of money it was feeding into the economy. The taper tantrum ensued when investors panicked in reaction to news of this tapering and drew their money rapidly out of the bond market, which drastically increased bond yields.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/taper-tantrum.asp#ixzz5JOoUV33x
缩减恐慌（taper tantrum）曾被用来描述2013年美国国债收益率短期内急剧上升的现象，而这一现象源自于美联储当年逐渐减少其向实体经济的资金注入的财政政策行为。由于缩减恐慌导致大量债券投资者对于未来货币宽松的预期变小，从而大量抛售债券，使得短期内债券的收益率急剧上升。）
Another reason to worry about exchange rates is debt: a weaker currency makes dollar or euro liabilities harder to repay. According to the Institute of International Finance, the combined foreign-currency debt of Argentina’s government and non-financial companies exceeds 50% of GDP. In Turkey, it is 47%. But the burden elsewhere is modest. It is less than 25% of GDP in Mexico and South Africa, less than 20% in Brazil and Malaysia, and closer to 10% in India, China and Thailand.
担心汇率的另一个原因是债务：货币贬值会使美元或欧元债务难以偿还。根据国际金融研究所（IIF）的数据，阿根廷政府和非金融公司的外币债务超过GDP的50%。在土耳其，这一比例为47%，然而其他国家这一比例是中性适度的。墨西哥和南非的外币债务不到GDP的25%，巴西和马来西亚的外币债务不到GDP的20%，印度、中国和泰国则接近10%。
In Indonesia, both inflation (3.2%) and foreign-currency debt (19% of GDP) are low. Its central bank nonetheless raised rates twice in May to stabilise the rupiah. The country, still haunted by the Asian financial crisis, associates a falling currency with a faltering economy. And like other emerging markets, it fears that currency weakness can feed on itself, as declines fuel speculation about further declines.
在印度尼西亚，通货膨胀率(3.2%)和外币债务(GDP的19%)都很低。尽管如此，为了稳定卢比汇率，印尼央行在5月份曾两次上调利率。这个国家，仍然饱受亚洲金融危机的困扰，将货币贬值与摇摇欲坠的经济联系在一起。和其他新兴市场一样，由于卢布本身作为弱势货币会进一步加剧其未来的贬值预期，印尼政府担心货币的疲软可能会自食其果。
This is presumably the kind of “disruptive situation” that Mr Sturzenegger had in mind when positing exceptions to his rule of non-intervention. He was perhaps unfortunate that such a situation arose so shortly after he had promised to step back: the sharp drop in Argentina’s peso on June 11th was exacerbated by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals after its meeting on June 12th-13th. In emerging markets, currency policy can be complicated—not least because of the financial markets’ demand for simplicity.
这大概是斯图塞内赫尔先生在提出他的不干涉主张时所考虑到的那种“破坏性局面”。很不幸，在他宣布退位不久，就出现了这种情况：美联储在6月12日至13日的会议后发出的鹰派信号所加剧了6月11日以来阿根廷比索的急剧下跌的状况。新兴市场的货币政策往往能够变的很复杂，尤其当市场上存在着大量简单性需求。
翻译组：
Olivia，女，教育行业，经济学人粉丝
Vivian，女，国际商务硕士， 经济学人粉丝
Fiona， 女 ，教雅思的民工， 经济学人粉丝
Lucia ，女，翻译学硕士三年制，经济学人粉丝
校核组：
Yoga，女，政府行业，经济学人粉丝
Leon, 男，ANU finance在读研究生，经济学人铁粉
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观点|评论|思考
本次观点由Alan全权执笔
Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝
从三月份的567.07亿外汇储备，到了五月份的446.82亿美元，短短两个月阿根廷就流失了120多亿的外汇储备来用于冲销干预汇率，但是在6月11这天阿根廷比索还是从1:25直窜到了1:27。
不由得让人联想到了2001阿根廷也同样经历了一场似曾相识的金融危机。当时的阿根廷因为债务危机和国内经济需求放缓导致投资者失去信心，其间隔夜拆借利率飙升至200-300%。加上股市过山车式的波动以及财政赤字，IMF拒绝向阿根廷政府提供12.64亿美元贷款，进而国际市场恐慌性抛售阿根廷国债。最后阿根廷不得不宣布放弃1:1的固定汇率，将比索贬值为1:40兑美元。
同样的剧本还在上演。财政赤字78.17亿，经常项目赤字12.85亿，资本外流83.35亿，6.12日货币当局将利率从27.5%上调至40%，银行拆借利率38.44%，五月通胀率26.3%，外汇储备446.82亿将将足够6个月的进口额（一半认为外汇储备是进口额的3-6月是安全的），政府外债23.3亿（截止至2018.1月）。
这样的宏观统计数字绝对不会让任何投资者抱有信心，阿根廷很可能会再一次从01年那样的债务危机和财政赤字演变为金融危机的故事。1）加上美国的强势加息短期内不会改变，给了比索更大的贬值压力 2）丧失了投资者的信心后，资本外流加剧也会进一步导致比索贬值。3）而国内的通胀率居高不下，必须将利率调至高于通胀率的高度才能压制通胀，但是40%的国内利率与2%的利差又会进一步让比索贬值。
而阿根廷的外债大多以美元计，这样又进一步地增加了阿根廷的债务问题。
目前的经济问题对于阿根廷来说十分棘手，尽快得到IMF的财政援助，与债务国协商债务重组，重新挽救投资者的信心，暂时禁止资本外流是阿根廷政府要做的当务之急。
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