矿产资源估值

Valu

A

tion

矿·产·资源·估·值

Shaun Barry, Principal Consultant (Project Evaluation)

主任咨询师（项目评估）

第二节

Valuation Approaches 

估值方法

Conclusions and Wrap-up

结论和总结

Valuation Approaches

估值方法

The selection of Valuation Approach depends on the stage of development: 估值方法的选择取决于项目开发阶段：

• Income – based on expected future income stream 收入–基于预期的未来收入

• Market – uses transaction prices of projects in similar geographical, geopolitical, and geological environments to derive a Market Value 市场–利用相似地理、地缘政治和地质环境下的项目交易价格来得出市场价值

• Cost – based on seeking a reimbursement of sunk costs with a risk premium 成本–基于寻求用风险溢价来偿还沉没成本

At least two or more Valuation Methods should be used. 至少应使用两种或更多种估值方法

Valuation Approach	Exploration Projects	Pre-development Projects	Development Projects	Production Projects
Market	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Income	No	In some cases	Yes	Yes
Cost	Yes	In come cases	No	No

The Value of a project generally increases with the stage of development. 项目的价值通常随着开发阶段的推进而增加。

Source来源: Lilford, 2011

Cost Approach 成本法

• Appraised Value Method 估定价值法

• Multiples of Exploration Expenditure Method 勘探支出倍数法

• Geoscientific rating Method 地学评级法

• Depreciated Replacement Cost Method 折旧重置成本法 –not used for Market Value 不用于市场价值

Appraised Value 估定价值 (Roscoe, 2002)	Multiples of Exploration Expenditure 勘探支出的倍数(Schodde, 2002)	Geoscientific Rating地学评级 (Kilburn, 1990)
Meaningful past expenditures (3-5 years) 有意义的过去支出（3-5年)	Meaningful past expenditures (3-5 years)有意义的过去支出（3-5年）	YBase Acquisition Cost (BAC) $500 per km2基本采购成本（BAC）每平方公里500美元
Inflated to current cost 通胀至当前成本	Inflated to current cost 通胀至当前成本	Factor multipliers to estimate Technical Value使用因子乘数估算技术价值
Multiply each year’s expenditure by retaining factor 将每年的支出乘以保留系数	/	Multiply by factor to reflect current Market Value 乘以系数来反映当前市场价值
Add warranted future costs 增加必要的未来成本	Add warranted future costs 增加必要的未来成本	/
Multiply total with Fair Market adjustment factor 将总数乘以公平市场调节系数	Multiplied total expenditure by retaining factor (PEM from 0 to 5 ×)  将总支出乘以保留系数（PEM从0到5×）	/

Cost Approach caveats: 成本法警告：

• ASIC suggests Valuers work 'backwards’  ASIC建议估值师“逆向”工作

• Too subjective 太主观

• Self-fulfilling 自我验证

Cost Approach safeguards: 成本法保障措施：

• Use more than one approach 使用不止一种方法

• Must not be primary valuation approach 一定不能作为主要估值方式

• Be descriptive for reasons for subjective factors 对主观因素的原因进行描述

Market Approach市场法

• Comparable Market Transactions Method 可比市场交易法

• Joint Venture Terms Method 联合风险协议法

• Yardstick Method 码尺法

• Peer Group trading multiples Method 同行交易倍数法

Comparable Market Transactions 可比市场交易

–Outright acquisitions 全面收购

–Joint Venture Terms 联合风险协议法

–Peer Group trading multiples 同行交易倍数

· Can be expressed as: 可表述为：

–$ per unit of production / $ per resource (tonnes of coal, ounces of gold equivalent, etc.) 美元/单位产量或美元/资源（每吨煤、每盎司黄金当量等）

–$ per unit area (hectare and km2) 美元/单位面积（公顷和平方公里）

Yardstick or 'Rule of Thumb’ 码尺法或“拇指法则”

• Specified percentages of the spot price of the metal are applied to the defined Mineral Resources or Target  将金属现货价格的指定百分比应用于定义的矿产资源或目标

• $ per resource (tonnes of coal, ounces of gold equivalent, etc.)  美元/资源（每吨煤、每盎司黄金当量等）

Resources	Percentage of the spot price
Measured	2%-5%
Indicated	1%-2%
Inferred	0.5%-1%
Inferred	0.1%-0.5%

Market Approach caveats: 市场法警告：

• Yardstick or 'Rule of Thumb’ is very generic 码尺或“拇指法则”是非常通用的

• Style of mineralisation 矿化类型

• Geographic location 地理位置

• Metal equivalent in the ground 地下金属当量

• Market is very cyclical 市场具有很强的周期性

Market Approach safeguards:市场法保障措施：

• Use more than one approach 使用不止一种方法

• Ensure comparability of market transaction: mineralisation, geography, etc. 确保市场交易的可比性：矿化、地理等

• Metal equivalent should apply recoveries of each metal type 金属当量应适用各金属类型的回收率

• Normalise to current commodity price 正常化为当前商品价格

Income Approach收益法

• Discounted Cashflow Method 贴现现金流法

• SRK Geological Risk Method  SRK地质风险法

• Real Options Method 实物期权法

• Capitalised margins Method 资本化利润率法

• Earnings multiples Method 收益乘数法

Discounted Cashflow – Free Cash Flow贴现现金流-自由现金流

• Revenue收入

• Less: Operating costs减：运营成本

  –Royalties权益金

  –Operating: mining, milling, smelting, refining, etc.运营：采矿、磨矿、冶炼、精炼等

  –Administration: overheads管理：一般费用

  –Maintenance: plant and machinery, etc.维护：工厂和机械等

• Less: Capital costs资本成本

  –Initial初始

  –Sustaining/ replacement维持/更换

• Less: Working capital减：营运资金

• Less: Taxes减：税收

• Less: Mine closure减：闭矿

Don’t take past 'sunk costs’ into account 不要将过去的“沉没成本”考虑在内

Discounted Cashflow – Measure of Value 贴现现金流–价值尺度

• Net Present Value ($ M) – value added over and above investment  净现值（百万美元）–投资之上的增加值

• Internal Rate of Return (%) – the return on investment, the discount rate at which the NPV equals 0, returning invested capital (not a good indicator when comparing investments, must be used in conjunction with NPV) 内部收益率（％）–投资回报率，即NPV等于0时的贴现率，回报投资资本（在进行投资比较时不是一个好指标，必须与NPV结合使用）

• Capital Efficiency Factor (Ke) – the value added by each dollar invested 资本效率因子（Ke）– 每投资一美元所增加的价值

• Discounted Payback Period (years) – time to repay the investment with interest 贴现回收期（年）– 偿还投资利息的时间

Capitalised Margin资本化利润率

• Capitalisation of future maintainable earnings (EBITDA)  未来可维持收入的资本化（EBITDA）

• More suitable for mining company with portfolio of mining assets 更适合拥有矿业资产组合的矿业公司

• Simple method and easy to understand 方法简单易懂

Real Option Analysis 实物期权分析

• NPV of stand alone case + Value of option 独立案例的净现值+期权价值

• Probabilistic Value derived 概率值推导

• Use of decision Tree analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation 使用决策树分析和蒙特卡洛模拟

• Not generally used in public reports as it is complex and hard to understand 因其复杂且难以理解，一般不用于公开报告

Income Approach Caveats: 收益法警告：

• Market is very cyclical 市场具有很强的周期性

• ASIC requires use of discounted cashflow only for projects where an Ore Reserve is declared  ASIC要求仅在声明矿石储量的项目中使用贴现现金流

Income Approach Safe Guards: 收益法保障措施：

• Use more than one approach – check against market multiples 使用多种方法–检查市场倍数

• Sensitivity analysis: stochastic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo analysis)  敏感性分析：随机的和概率性的（蒙特卡洛分析）

• Can not apply discounted cashflow to early stage exploration 不能将贴现现金流应用于早期勘探阶段

Conclusion and wrap-up

结论和总结

Mineral Assets are comprised of several components: 矿产资产包括几个组成部分：

• Whole business, Mining Right, Mineral Resource, P&E, etc. 整体业务、采矿权、矿产资源、P＆E等

Overlap with Real Property valuation: 与不动产估值重叠：

• Understand legal framework 了解法律框架

Many Valuation Codes: 诸多估值准则： 

• Drive to standardise, some are specific to asset class 推动标准化，有些是针对资产类别的

Define the 'basis of value’: 定义“价值基础”： 

• Market Value, Technical Value, Highest and Best Use, etc. 市场价值、技术价值、最高和最佳用途等

Three valuation approaches with several methodologies:  三种估值方式和几种方法论： 

Use two or more methods 使用两种或更多种方法 

The valuation approaches chosen depend on stage of development of assets 选择的估值方式取决于资产的开发阶段