全球债务赤字激增，是买入白银的好时候？
Debt, Deficits and Stimulus Boosting Silver
债务，赤字和刺激刺激白银
2020 was good to some investors. Stocks gained, with the S&P 500 ahead about 13%, while the Nasdaq is up some 17%.
2020年对某些投资者而言是个好消息。股市上涨，标准普尔500指数上涨约13％，纳斯达克上涨约17％。
Precious metals investors fared even better. Gold has gained around 23%. Yet silver outshone all of these with an outstanding 44%. But as I'll explain, I think gold's cheaper cousin is set for another year of outsized gains.
贵金属投资者的表现甚至更好。黄金上涨了约23％。然而，白银以其出色的44％胜过所有这些。但是，正如我将要解释的那样，我认为黄金的表弟便宜又一年了。
I believe we're entering a perfect storm for silver. Not only are central bank balance sheets exploding, but major economies are passing stimulus bills that, just a few years ago, would have been near-scandalous. What's more, they're doing so not just with relative ease, but outright encouragement.
我相信我们正在进入白银风暴。不仅中央银行的资产负债表激增，而且主要经济体正在通过刺激法案，而仅仅几年前，刺激法案就已经几乎是可耻的。更重要的是，他们这样做不仅相对容易，而且是完全鼓励。
The Fed's balance sheet was $4.2 trillion at the start of the year. Today, it's $7.3 trillion and growing. This year the U.S. Federal deficit will be triple that of 2019.
年初以来，美联储的资产负债表规模为4.2万亿美元。如今，它已达到7.3万亿美元，并且还在不断增长。今年美国联邦赤字将是2019年的三倍。
And yet, almost no one seems to care. Until…inflation.
然而，几乎没有人在乎。直到……通货膨胀。
I think inflation will be the dark horse of 2021. As vaccination rates climb and the visible effects of the pandemic subside, I expect our wild rates of money printing will start to take effect. Currencies, in particular the U.S. dollar, are likely to weaken.
我认为通货膨胀将是2021年的黑马。随着疫苗接种率的攀升和流行病消退的明显影响，我预计我们疯狂的货币印刷率将开始生效。货币，特别是美元，可能会贬值。
That's what gold and silver have been sensing, especially since massive stimulus programs and a Fed promise of near-zero rates until at least 2023 appeared.
这就是黄金和白银一直在感知的东西，尤其是自从大规模刺激计划和美联储承诺至少在2023年之前实现接近零利率的承诺以来。
Not only is silver demonstrating its ability to hedge against expected inflation, it's also flexing its industrial-metal muscle. Fifty percent of silver is consumed in industry, plus 10% goes into solar technologies. Factor in exploding investment demand, and the metal's outlook is robust.
白银不仅显示出对冲预期通胀的能力，而且还在展示其工业金属的力量。工业中消耗了50％的白银，还有10％用于太阳能技术。投资需求激增的因素，并且金属的前景看好。
What's more, silver's technical picture is providing a terrific setup.
更重要的是，白银的技术画面提供了绝佳的设置。
Silver's Bullish Technical Setup
白银的看涨技术设置
The gold/silver ratio is a useful gauge to assess silver's relative value against gold.
金/银比是评估白银相对于黄金的相对价值的有用指标。
In March, the ratio spiked over 125, meaning it took an astounding 125 ounces of silver to buy one of gold. That's a historic high which quickly reverted.
3月份，该比率飙升至125以上，这意味着需要125盎司惊人的白银才能购买一种黄金。这是一个历史高点，很快就恢复了。
For most of the last 20 years, this ratio has bounced around between 50 and 70. Typically, when the ratio runs up above 80 and reverses, it tends to run down to 50 or even lower. Currently, the gold/silver ratio is near 73, and has been trending down. That's what it does during precious metals bull markets. I think it has further to fall, even if gold moves higher, which is likely. As a result, I expect silver's gains will easily outpace gold's in 2021.
在过去20年的大部分时间里，该比率一直在50到70之间反弹。通常，当比率超过80并反转时，它往往会下降到50甚至更低。目前，金银比接近73，并且一直在下降。这就是在贵金属牛市期间所做的。我认为，即使金价上涨，它也有可能进一步下跌。因此，我预计2021年白银的涨幅将轻松超过黄金。
What's more, the silver chart is confirming bullish price action.
此外，白银图表正在确认看涨的价格走势。
Silver 'tested' support at $23 several times since September, and has just broken out above resistance. It's now trading well above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, and the latter has just turned up. The RSI and MACD momentum indicators are both trending higher and are not yet overbought. All of these are bullish signals.
自9月以来，白银“测试”了23美元的支撑位，并且刚刚突破阻力位。现在，它的交易价格远高于其200天和50天移动平均线，而后者刚刚开始上涨。 RSI和MACD动量指标均呈上升趋势，且尚未超买。所有这些都是看涨信号。
The same holds true for silver stocks.
白银股票也是如此。
Layer on top of that the seasonal trend for silver, and it becomes difficult to paint a more favorable outlook.
白银的季节性趋势之上，因此很难描绘出更有利的前景。
As you can see, silver tends to perform particularly well from December through February.
如您所见，从12月到2月，白银的表现尤其出色。
So here's how I see it.
所以这就是我的看法。
Ignore the daily noise in silver prices. One day traders buy the rumor, the next they sell the news. Instead, we need to focus on the bigger trend: silver has already more than doubled since March. It's in a bull market.
忽略白银价格的日常噪音。交易员有一天买了谣言，第二天又卖了新闻。相反，我们需要关注更大的趋势：自三月以来，白银已经翻了一倍多。在牛市中。
Most of us are anxious to welcome 2021. And those who invest in silver and silver stocks are likely to find next year particularly rewarding.
我们大多数人都渴望迎接2021年。那些投资白银和白银股票的人明年可能会发现特别有益的收获。
It's time to buy silver.
是时候买白银了。
来源网站:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk，文章采用人工智能翻译技术