临床模型预测文献分享

这篇文章是韩国团队做的，这篇文章来源于世界上很出名的一个期刊，那就是Plos One, 估计大家都认识这个期刊，所以期刊就不介绍了。

文章题目：

Survival Nomogram for Curatively Resected Korean Gastric Cancer Patients: Multicenter Retrospective Analysis with External Validation

摘要：

Background

A small number of nomograms have been previously developed to predict the individual survival of patients who undergo curative resection for gastric cancer. However, all were derived from single high-volume centers. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for gastric cancer patients using a multicenter database.

Methods

We reviewed the clinicopathological and survival data of 2012 patients who underwent curative resection for gastric cancer between 2001 and 2006 at eight centers. Among these centers, six institutions were randomly assigned to the development set, and the other two centers were assigned to the validation set. Multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazard regression model was performed, and discrimination and calibration were evaluated by external validation.

Results

Multivariate analyses revealed that age, tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, depth of invasion, and metastatic lymph nodes were significant prognostic factors for overall survival. In the external validation, the concordance index was 0.831 (95% confidence interval,0.784–0.878), and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic was 3.92 (P = 0.917).

Conclusions

We developed and validated a nomogram to predict 5-year overall survival after curative resection for gastric cancer based on a multicenter database. This nomogram can be broadly applied even in general hospitals and is useful for counseling patients, and scheduling follow-up.

作者就做下面这几样东西：

1、对各种因素做Cox回归分析

2、画张列线图，预测一下5年生存率

3、画一下ROC曲线，看看模型准不准确

希望本文对大家有所帮助。