【新刊速递】第54期 | International Affairs, Vol. 96, 2020 / 开普饭

期刊简介

<国际事务> International Affairs 是经国际关系领域同行评审的学术期刊，创办于1922年。该杂志总部设立于英国皇家国际事务研究所查塔姆研究所（Hatham House）。在2018年ISI Journal Citation Reports中，它的影响因子为3.748，在全球排名第五，因其严谨的学术性和政策相关性而备受学术界推崇。

本期编委

【编译】唐一鸣赵婧如朱家羲阮镇炜缪高意郭新靓杨帆宋翔宇

【审校】唐一鸣赵婧如朱家羲兰星辰缪高意郭新靓杨帆宋翔宇徐一君

【排版】马璐

本期目录

1. 为何应对新冠疫情需要国际关系学？

Why the COVID-19 response needs International Relations

2. 新冠疫情的后果：美国如何从安全提供者转变为安全消费者

The consequence of COVID-19: how the United States moved from security provider to security consumer

3. 新冠肺炎疫情会是美国霸权的终结么？公害、领导失误与金融霸权

Is COVID-19 the end of US hegemony? Public bads, leadership failures and monetary hegemony

4. 是字节而不是浪潮：信息通信技术、全球圣战主义与反恐怖主义

Bytes not waves: information communication technologies, global jihadism and counterterrorism

5. 未来战争研究与中国军事改革

The future war studies community and the Chinese revolution in military affairs

6. 叙利亚冲突中的水资源武器化：支配与合作战略

Water weaponization in the Syrian conflict: strategies of domination and cooperation

7. 反女权主义话语中的全球-地方动态过程：对印度、俄罗斯和美国网络社区的分析

Global–local dynamics in anti-feminist discourses: an analysis of Indian, Russian and US online communities

8. 谁偷走了裁军？废核话语中的历史与怀旧

Who stole disarmament? History and nostalgia in nuclear abolition discourse

为何应对新冠疫情需要国际关系学？

【题目】Why the COVID-19 response needs International Relations

【作者】Sara. E. Davies，澳大利亚格里菲斯大学；Clare Wenham，伦敦经济学院

【摘要】新冠疫情的蔓延影响到所有国家，但是各国政府如何应对取决于政治。在此过程中，世界卫生组织（WHO）尽力协调各国，对疫情实施持续的管控。考虑到疫情受政治因素的驱动，作者认为现在正是将国际关系知识作为一种必要和独特的方法，纳入世卫组织流行病控制方法库的关键时机。历史上，在应对危机时强调专业技术胜过政治的做法不仅多余且过时：世卫组织长期被会员国政治化。世卫组织需要接受政治的存在，聘用对外政策和外交方面的专家。作者认为国际关系方法可以为公共卫生决策和技术政策协调提供切入点，并对实践案例进行分析。作者将本文作为入门指南，供在世卫组织、多边组织、捐资部门、政府和国际非政府组织就职的人员使用，以对新冠疫情进行政治分析而非回避。协调一致的政治合作对于克服疫情至关重要。

The COVID-19 pandemic affects all countries, but how governments respond is dictated by politics. Amid this, the World Health Organization (WHO) has tried to coordinate advice to states and offer ongoing management of the outbreak. Given the political drivers of COVID-19, we argue this is an important moment to advance International Relations knowledge as a necessary and distinctive method for inclusion in the WHO repertoire of knowledge inputs for epidemic control. Historical efforts to assert technical expertise over politics is redundant and outdated: the WHO has always been politicized by member states. We suggest WHO needs to embrace the politics and engage foreign policy and diplomatic expertise. We suggest practical examples of the entry points where International Relations methods can inform public health decision-making and technical policy coordination. We write this as a primer for those working in response to COVID-19 in WHO, multilateral organizations, donor financing departments, governments and international non-governmental organizations, to embrace political analysis rather than shy away from it. Coordinated political cooperation is vital to overcome COVID-19.

【编译】唐一鸣

【校对】赵婧如

【审核】朱家羲

新冠疫情的后果：美国如何从安全提供者转变为安全消费者

【题目】The consequence of COVID-19: how the United States moved from security provider to security consumer

【作者】Simon Reich, 美国罗格斯大学; Peter Dombrowsk, 美国海军战争学院

【摘要】关于新冠疫情对全球均势带来何等长远影响的思考引发了一场广泛而激烈的争论。其中，一种推测是新冠疫情会改变对国家安全的定义，以及什么是国家安全的重心。毫无疑问，这种争论将持续下去。但是一点已经十分明显：在过去的七十年中美国一直将自身塑造成为所有关键领域的安全提供者，这也构成了美国能够领导全球的重要内在因素。基于美国与新冠疫情做斗争的过程，作者得出结论：美国在进一步放弃其综合性的领导地位。新冠疫情更深刻地向人们剖析一个新现实：在一个自然威胁和人为威胁都能对国家安全造成巨大挑战挑战的世界中，数十年的错误假设和政策选择创造了一种新的环境。至少在与致命传染病传播有关的国际公共卫生问题上，美国可以被重新定义为安全消费者。

Deliberations over the COVID-19 pandemic's long-term effects on the global balance of power have spurred a large and rancorous debate, including speculation about a shift in the definition of national security and prescriptions about where it should focus. That argument will no doubt continue. But we argue that one consequence is already evident: the United States has spent the last seventy years portraying itself as a security provider in all key domains—for many an intrinsic component of its status as a global leader. One reasonable broad conclusion from the US struggle with COVID-19 is that it has further forfeited its broad leadership position on the basis of its behavior. Yet that, although possibly true, would only portray one element of the story. The more profound insight exposed by COVID-19 is of a new reality: in a world where both naturogenic and anthropogenic threats pose immense national security challenges, decades of mistaken assumptions and policy choices have created a new environment, one where the United States has been redefined as a security consumer, at least in terms of international public health issues associated with the spread of deadly infectious diseases.

【编译】赵婧如

【校对】朱家羲

【审核】徐一君

新冠肺炎疫情会是美国霸权的终结么？公害、领导失误与金融霸权

【题目】Is COVID-19 the end of US hegemony? Public bads, leadership failures and monetary hegemony

【作者】Carla Norrlöf，多伦多大学政治学系

【摘要】

新冠肺炎疫情危及人类活动的各个层面，堪称战后最具侵略性的全球危机。这场疫情会导向美国霸权的终结么？通过将新冠肺炎疫情理论化为 "公害"，作者阐释了20世纪和21世纪关于美国霸权衰落的条件，及其与集体行动、国际机构和自由主义国际秩序关系的一场巨大争论。

文章结构如下：首先，作者将新冠肺炎疫情危机定性为公害。其次，作者讨论了美国在国内和国际上对这场卫生危机的反应。在国内，美国政府未能有效管控新冠疫情产生的“公害”，已经损害了其保障本国公民健康和国内经济的能力，而这正是美国国际领导地位的基础。在国际上，美国战略性利用这场危机，加强了对国际自由流动的反对，同时抛弃了负责打击“公害”的主要国际机构--世界卫生组织（WHO）。美国唯一发挥其领导作用的是在货币领域力求保持国际经济的稳定。在美元霸权的推动下，作为自由国际秩序中最不制度化的组成部分，美联储因此充当了全球最后贷款人的角色。在结论中，作者通过评估美国未能应对“公害”对其他公共产品所造成的破坏程度和对世界其他权力中心影响力扩张的促进作用，预测了新冠肺炎疫情对美国霸权体系的影响。

COVID-19 jeopardizes all dimensions of human activity, qualifying as the most invasive global crisis of the postwar era. Is COVID-19 the final nail in the coffin for US hegemony? By theorizing COVID-19 as a ‘public bad’, I shed light on one of the great debates of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries regarding the conditions for the decline of US hegemony and its relationship to collective action, international institutions and the liberal international order (LIO).

The article is organized as follows. First, I characterize the COVID-19 crisis as a public bad. I then discuss the United States’ domestic and international response to the health crisis. Domestically, I argue that failure to effectively manage the COVID-19 public bad has compromised America’s ability to secure the health of its citizens and the domestic economy, the very foundations for its international leadership. Internationally, the US has used the crisis strategically to reinforce its opposition to free international movement while abandoning the primary international institution tasked with fighting the public bad, the World Health Organization (WHO). The only area where the United States has exercised leadership is in the monetary sphere, to stabilize the international economy. Powered by US dollar hegemony, the least institutionalized component of the LIO, the Federal Reserve has thus served as global lender of last resort. In concluding, I predict the effects of COVID-19 by evaluating the likelihood that US failure to manage this public bad may undermine other public goods and advance other centers of power at the expense of US hegemony.

【编译】朱家羲

【校对】唐一鸣

【审核】徐一君

是字节而不是浪潮：信息通信技术、全球圣战主义与反恐怖主义

【题目】Bytes not waves: information communication technologies, global jihadism and counterterrorism

【作者】Michael Chertoff，美国前国土安全部长；Patrick Bury，英国巴斯大学；Daniela Richterova，伦敦布鲁内尔大学

【摘要】拉波波特(Rapoport)对于四波全球浪潮中的最后一波宗教浪潮的构想至今仍然极具影响力。但是，它和其它分类法一样，几乎没有关注信息与通信技术(ICTs)对全球圣战活动发展的影响。通过发展一个新的以信息通信技术为基础、用于理解圣战士演变的分类，以及对成功的恐怖袭击的关注，本文针对已有理论增补两个新的意见。我们的核心论点是：自20世纪90年代以来，信息通信技术推动了全球圣战主义在战略、组织和战术上的巨大转变，而这些转变可以被理解为四个交叠的迭代。“圣战主义1.0”是指在千禧年的拐点实施标志性袭击的恐怖组织，这些组织是等级制的、自上而下的，他们接受海外资助，并且在海外接受训练。随后，圣战主义发展成2.0版本和3.0版本。“圣战主义2.0”认识到众多小规模协调性的袭击也能产生全球影响。“圣战主义3.0”是与核心的恐怖组织没有联系、受鼓动的恐怖主义，只是利用个人和粗略的战术。最后，圣战主义向“圣战主义4.0”演变，或称“网络恐怖主义”。作者认为，本文提出的分类为学者和相关从业人员概念化影响全球圣战主义的信息通信技术提供了一个有用的基础，而且这些概念可能也适用于其他类型的全球恐怖分子。在本文的结论部分，作者分析了反恐机构如何回应这些演变，并指出了未来的研究领域。

Rapoport's conceptualization of the last, religious wave of four global waves remains highly influential. But it, and other typologies, have placed too little emphasis on the influence of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on the evolution of global jihadist activities. This article makes two new contributions by developing both a new ICT-based typology for understanding jihadist evolutions, and by focusing on successful attacks. Our central argument is that ICTs’ impact on global jihadism has facilitated dramatic transformations of its strategy, organization and tactics since the 1990s, and that these can be understood as four overlapping iterations. ‘Jihadism 1.0’ describes the hierarchical, top-down directed and overseas financed and trained terrorist organizations that conducted iconic attacks at the turn of the millennium. Jihadism has since evolved into ‘Jihadism 2.0’ and then ‘Jihadism 3.0’. Jihadism 2.0 recognizes that a number of smaller, coordinated attacks can have a global impact. Jihadism 3.0 is inspired terrorism that has no links to the central terror organization, utilizing individuals and crude tactics. Finally, jihadism is evolving toward ‘Jihadism 4.0’, or cyberterrorism. We argue this typology provides a useful basis for scholars and practitioners to conceptualize the ICT dynamics influencing global jihadism, and these may be applicable to other global terrorists. The conclusion analyses how counter-terrorism services can respond to these evolutions and charts areas for future research.

【编译】阮镇炜

【校对】杨帆

【审核】朱家羲

未来战争研究与中国军事改革

【题目】The future war studies community and the Chinese revolution in military affairs

【作者】Kai Liao, 知远战略与防务研究所

【摘要】本研究将《解放军报》的“军事学习”专栏和军事沙龙视为20世纪80年代初在中国出现的未来战争研究（The future war studies community，FWSC）的核心内容。在考察1980-1993年间青年解放军专家群体的活动和思想后，作者发现这些专家对领导解放军进行军事改革（revolution in military affairs，RMA)作出三大贡献。第一，青年解放军专家影响了1985年中国人民解放军战略指导思想的转变。第二，1985年“战略转移”后，解放军面临着认识未来战争、寻求和平时期军队建设新战略的复杂问题和不确定性。第三，其中一些专家提倡基地化训练的概念，并直接参与创建训练基地。这些训练基地在检验军改相关概念和思想方面发挥了重要作用。本研究结果亦显示，培养解放军军官的创新思维对政策制定有深远影响，尽管这在短期内并不明显。理解中国军改自下而上的过程是为了更好地了解中国军事改革和军事创新的基本原理。

This study has identified the PLA Daily’s ‘Study Military’ column and the Military Salon as the core elements in a FWSC that emerged in China in the early 1980s. Having examined the activities and ideas of this community of young PLA experts from 1980 to 1993, it finds that they made three major contributions leading the PLA to the RMA. First, they played a role in influencing the PLA’s change of its strategic guiding thought in 1985. Second, after the 1985 ‘strategic shift’, the PLA was confronted with the complex and uncertain issues associated with understanding future wars and searching for a new strategy for peacetime army-building. Third, some of them advocated the concept of base-ized training, and became directly involved in creating training bases that have been important in testing concepts and ideas related to the RMA. The findings of this study also suggest that fostering innovative thinking among PLA officers had a less obvious but long-term influence on policy-making. The significance of understanding the bottom-up process of the Chinese RMA is that it provides us with a better understanding of the rationale behind the Chinese RMA and military innovation in general.

【编译】缪高意

【校对】郭新靓

【审核】唐一鸣

叙利亚冲突中的水资源武器化：支配与合作战略

【题目】Water weaponization in the Syrian conflict: strategies of domination and cooperation

【作者】Marwa Daoudy, 美国乔治敦大学

【摘要】行为体如何在国家间冲突中使水资源武器化？根据现有的关于“伊斯兰国”的文献和访谈，聚焦于叙利亚冲突，作者提出了一种水资源武器化的新类型。首先，作者用图表解释了叙利亚复兴党政权如何把水资源变成控制库尔德人的合法武器，并指出这些基础设施如何提升了伊斯兰国控制叙利亚东北部的能力。其次，作者研究了伊斯兰国和库尔德民主联盟党等非国家行为体如何针对选定和开通具有重大战略意义的水资源系统实施水资源武器化战略。最后，作者研究了伊斯兰国和阿萨德政权等敌对双方如何合作将用水协定武器化，以增强其共同利益。基于此，作者将水资源武器化战略分为四类：控制与合法性，军事工具，军事目标以及合作。

How do actors weaponize water in intrastate conflicts? Existing typologies of water weaponization make deterministic differentiations between state and non-state actors and invoke opaque labels like ‘terrorism’. Furthermore, these typologies ignore how various actors engaged in violent conflict also cooperate over water, and whether water weaponization occurs beyond war. I propose a new typology for water weaponization in an analysis of the case of Syria, drawing on the leaked ‘ISIS papers’ as well as primary sources and interviews. The study begins by charting how the Ba'athist regime used water as a weapon of domination and legitimacy against its Kurdish population with infrastructure that would later facilitate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria's (ISIS) ability to take hold of northeast Syria. I then turn to how non-state armed groups like ISIS and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) have adopted strategies of water weaponization similar to the Syrian government by targeting and channelling water systems with major tactical implications. Finally, I show how enemy parties such as ISIS and the al-Assad regime weaponized cooperative water agreements to advance their mutual interests with violent implications for civilians. As such, I sort strategies of water weaponization into four categories: domination and legitimacy, military tools, military targets, and cooperation. In doing so, this new typology makes three main contributions, by: 1) accounting for how water is weaponized in state-society relations outside conflict; 2) refining existing definitions of water as a military tool and target; and 3) appraising the weapon-like effects of water cooperation.

【编译】郭新靓

【审校】宋翔宇、朱家羲

反女权主义话语中的全球-地方动态过程：对印度、俄罗斯和美国网络社区的分析

【题目】Global–local dynamics in anti-feminist discourses: an analysis of Indian, Russian and US online communities

【作者】Ann-Kathrin Rothermel，波茨坦大学博士研究生、研究助理

【摘要】女权是全球人权共识的核心部分，然而，目前反女权主义和厌女主义政治的日益流行可能颠覆女权主义取得的成果。为了解释当前的反女权主义趋势，在这篇文章中，作者分析了反女权主义社区是如何在地方和全球趋势的交点及其从属关系上构建自己集体身份的。通过深入分析印度、俄罗斯和美国流行的六个反女权主义网络社区的集体身份表征，作者阐明了反女权主义者是如何在对变革的局部抵抗和对与全球化社会发展结果的反击之间，以话语方式建构反女权主义的“自我”和女权主义的“他者”。研究结果揭示了一套复杂的全球—地方动态过程，这有助于详细理解不同背景下的反女权主义集体身份建立和动员过程的差异和共性。通过明确关注话语产生的地点对建立反女权主义身份认同方面的作用，并提供三个不同地区反女权主义社区的新证据，本文从社会运动研究和国际关系女权主义两个方面对当前关于跨国反女权主义运动的研究作出了贡献。

Women's rights are a core part of a global consensuson human rights. However, we are currently experiencing an increasingpopularity of anti-feminist and misogynist politics threatening to overridefeminist gains. In order to help explain this current revival and appeal, inthis article I analyse how anti-feminist communities construct their collectiveidentities at the intersection of local and global trends and affiliations.Through an in-depth analysis of representations in the collective identities ofsix popular online anti-feminist communities based in India, Russia and theUnited States, I shed light on how anti-feminists discursively construct theiranti-feminist ‘self’ and the feminist ‘other’ between narratives of localizedresistance to change and backlash against the results of broader societaldevelopments associated with globalization. The results expose a complex set ofglobal–local dynamics, which provide a nuanced understanding of the differencesand commonalities of anti-feminist collective identity-building andmobilization processes across contexts. By explicitly focusing on the role ofdiscursively produced locations for anti-feminist identity-building andproviding new evidence on anti-feminist communities across three differentcontinents, the article contributes to current discussions on transnationalanti-feminist mobilizations in both social movement studies and feministInternational Relations.

【编译】杨帆

【校对】兰星辰

【审核】唐一鸣

谁偷走了裁军？废核话语中的历史与怀旧

【题目】Who stole disarmament? History and nostalgia in nuclear abolition discourse

【作者】Kjølv Egeland，巴黎政治学院玛丽·居里博士后安全研究学院

【摘要】近年来，主张裁军的重要人士坚持认为，国际社会的无核世界共同目标在名义上要进一步取得进展，取决于重新发扬1980年代末和1990年代盛行的合作精神和实践。这种观点认为，主张废除核武器的人应集中精力恢复冷战结束后执行的军备控制可靠方案。本文认为，“让裁军再次伟大”的呼吁反映了对过去的无端怀旧，这种怀旧情绪助长了对消除核武器的既定办法的过分自信。冷战的结束非但没有使世界走上废除核武器的道路，反而把核武器的合法化看作是对“未来不确定性”的一种防范，以及对维持核军备的权力结构的巩固。通过夸大过去在消除核武器方面取得的进展，已失去的废核共识的怀旧叙述被用来使现有核秩序合理化，并使诸如污名化核武器、核威慑等寻求消除核武器新方法的努力失去合法性。

Influential members of the disarmament community have in recent years maintained that further progress towards the international community's nominally shared goal of a world without nuclear weapons depends on recapturing the spirit and practices of cooperation that prevailed in the late 1980s and 1990s. Proponents of abolition, in this view, should focus their efforts on revitalizing the tried and tested arms control formula that was implemented following the end of the Cold War. In this article, I argue that this call to make disarmament great again reflects unwarranted nostalgia for a past that never was, fostering overconfidence in established approaches to the elimination of nuclear weapons. Far from putting the world on course to nuclear abolition, the end of the Cold War saw the legitimation of nuclear weapons as a hedge against ‘future uncertainties’ and entrenchment of the power structures that sustain the retention of nuclear armouries. By overselling past progress towards the elimination of nuclear arms, the nostalgic narrative of a lost abolitionist consensus is used to rationalize the existing nuclear order and delegitimize the pursuit of new approaches to elimination such as the movement to stigmatize nuclear weapons and the practice of nuclear deterrence.

【编译】宋翔宇

【审校】缪高意、唐一鸣

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【新刊速递】第54期 | International Affairs, Vol. 96, 2020

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