7.3为何全球各地命运不同？《忽然》连载
杨浪序：她把史学理论的水“搅浑”了
《忽然》为苏粉必读项目
7,3 全球各地的不同命运
7.3 Destinies of the Nations across the Globe
以往我们常常认为东方衰落是从大约 2000 年前开始的。包括波斯、印度河 谷、西亚都没有继续赢取文明龙头的芳心。中国在汉之际达到一个文明高峰之后，也开始了长达 2000 年的停滞。整体农业时代的态势不过是自旧石器时代的格局延续。中间唐宋有过一个小高潮，这与当时世界文明重心重返阿拉伯世界可能有一 定关系，这种蝴蝶效应很容易被人们忽视。但总体轴心时代之后文明沿地中海逐渐向西传播，在意大利半岛结成罗马说过。
In the past, we often believed that the Oriental world (including Persia, Indian Valley, West Asia) began to decline about two thousand years ago. After China reached a peak in the Qin and Han dynasties, it began to suffer a 2000-year-long stagnation. In fact, the zenith of global civilizations has never really arrived in East Asia considering the effect of the “Movius Line”. The trend of the whole agricultural era was nothing but continuation of the pattern formed in the Paleolithic Age. A small climax took shape in the middle of the Tang and Song dynasties when the center of world civilizations returned to the Arab world. The butterfly-effect, however, has long been ignored and few would like to have the two empires related.
中世纪前后，阿拉伯世界沙漠化愈加严重，全球文明龙头在东部犹豫片刻后重返地中海北岸的欧洲。这些都是由地缘、地理条件决定的。印第安人的美洲，还有澳洲土著文化， 则由于与文明核心地区更为艰难稀有的交流，比东亚还要封闭落后。
When the desertification of the Arab world became increasingly serious after the Middle Ages, the center of global civilizations returned to the north coast of the Mediterranean. These changes were brought about by the constant geographical conditions. The America where Indians lived and the aboriginal culture in Australia, due to their failure to exchange with the core region of civilization, became more closed and backward.
( 公元 5 世纪前的世界文明主要格局 / Ancient world before 5th century )
（澳大利亚土著生 活 / Australian aboriginal life）
非洲由于两个主要原因逐渐陷于落后的阴影：一个是新石器时代开始的北非沙漠化，那里不再适合人类发展，更糟糕的是，巨大的沙漠还相对隔绝了对南部非洲的信息传播；另外，沙漠南端的热带地区并不适合农业，再往南去，既距离北方发达文明地区太远，而且北半球积累的农业经验并不适合南半球，所以，非洲从此沉入文明的阴影。最利于农业生产的是四季分明的中温带地区，这是为何旧大陆文明集中于北回归线的原因所在。
Africa was gradually trapped behind the shadow for two major reasons: the desertification in the Neolithic Age and the blockade of communication with South Africa caused by the huge desert. In addition, the southern part of the tropical area was not suitable for agricultural activities. As is known, the most suitable areas for agricultural production should have four distinctive seasons and that is why agricultural civilization was born north of the Tropic of Cancer.
（ 严重沙漠化的非洲 / Severely desert-alike Africa ）
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《忽然》连载 是原定的小纪录片脚本，但现在准备对该脚本进行较大修改，可能最终以 《人类文明是如何发展的？》为主要脉络，以《忽然》的知识体系为背景，来重新阐述我的“文明学”框架。欢迎大家就各个方面提出宝贵意见与支持，包括对剧本提意见、给片子取名到拍摄技术和赞助。拍摄地点在北京与上海两地完成，顺利的话预计半年内完成。感谢朋友们一直以来的鼓励支持！