第一章 如何快速而全面地做出决策

Chapter 1.

Decision-Making for Speed and Context

第一章

如何快速而全面地做出决策

The name Charlie Munger might not ring a bell, but you’re probably familiar with his business partner, Omaha billionaire Warren Buffett, one of the world’s most famous investors and, accordingly, one of the world’s richest people for decades running.

或许你对查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）这个名字较为陌生，但对他的商业伙伴应该很熟悉，那就是住在奥马哈（Omaha）的亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）。巴菲特是全球最知名的投资人之一，也是几十年来世界最富有的人之一。

The two of them have worked side by side for Buffett’s multi-conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway since 1978.

自1978年以来，他们俩并肩合作，执掌巴菲特成立的多元化投资集团伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司。

Although Munger isn’t in the spotlight as much as his partner, Buffett credits an overwhelming amount of his success to his alliance with him.

虽然芒格的知名度不如他的合作伙伴，但巴菲特表示，他取得的成功在很大程度上有赖这位黄金搭档。

And in recent years, Munger has begun to build a following in his own right based on how he has articulated his approach to life.

近年来，芒格向世人讲述了他的人生智慧，赢得了很多人的追捧。

This mostly began when Munger emerged from the shadows to give a commencement speech at USC Business School in 1994 entitled “Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom as It Relates to Investment Management & Business.”

1994年，芒格在南加州大学商学院毕业典礼上发表了演讲，题为《论基本的、普世的智慧及其与投资管理和商业的关系》，

The impact of Munger’s speech has proven to be highly influential in the decades after it was delivered, as it introduced the concept of “mental models,” which was subsequently disseminated to the public at large. He mused,

其睿智的箴言开始备受关注。芒格在演讲中提出了“思维模型”的概念，流传甚广，20多年后依然产生深远的影响。他说：

What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang’em back.

什么是基本的、普世的智慧？第一条规则是，如果你只是记得一些孤立的事实，试图把它们硬凑起来，那你就无法真正理解任何东西。

If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form.

如果这些事实不在一个理论框架中相互联系，你也就无法把它们派上用场。

You’ve got to have models in your head. And you’ve got to array your experience—both vicarious and direct—on this latticework of models.

你必须在头脑中建立起一些思维模型，你必须依靠这些思维模型组成的框架组织自身的经验，包括直接经验和间接经验。

You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and in life.

也许你已经注意到，有些学生一味地死记硬背，以此来应付考试。他们在学校里是失败者，在生活中也是失败者。

You’ve got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head.

你必须把经验置于头脑中那个由许多思维模型所组成的框架中。

What are the models? Well, the first rule is that you’ve got to have multiple models

这都包括哪些思维模型呢？这么说吧，你首先必须拥有多个思维模型

—because if you just have one or two that you’re using, the nature of human psychology is such that you’ll torture reality so that it fits your models, or at least, you’ll think it does.

——因为，如果你只能使用一两个，人类心理的本性就会让你扭曲现实，硬塞进你自己的思维模型，至少你自己觉得是塞进去了。

You become the equivalent of a chiropractor who, of course, is the great boob in medicine.

你会变得跟脊椎按摩师一样，成为医学界的笑柄。

It’s like the old saying, “To the man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.”

俗话说：“在只有一把锤子的人看来，任何问题都像钉子一样。”

And of course, that’s the way the chiropractor goes about practicing medicine.

当然，脊椎按摩师也是这样治病的。

But that’s a perfectly disastrous way to think and a perfectly disastrous way to operate in the world.

但这绝对是一种灾难性的思考方式，也绝对是一种灾难性的处世方式。

So you’ve got to have multiple models. And the models have to come from multiple disciplines—because all the wisdom of the world is not to be found in one little academic department.

所以，你必须拥有多个思维模型。这些模型必须来自不同的学科——因为你不可能在一个小小的院系里找到人世间的全部智慧。

That’s why poetry professors, by and large, are so unwise in a worldly sense. They don’t have enough models in their heads.

正因如此，诗歌教授大体上缺乏普世智慧。他们的头脑中没有足够的思维模型。

So you’ve got to have models across a fair array of disciplines.

所以你必须具备跨学科的思维模型。

You may say, “My God, this is already getting way too tough.”

你可能会说：“天哪，这也太难做到了。”

But, fortunately, it isn’t that tough—because eighty or ninety important models will carry about ninety percent of the freight in making you a worldly wise person. And of those, only a mere handful really carry very heavy freight.

但幸运的是，这并没有你想的那么难——因为掌握八九十个重要模型就差不多能让你成为一个具备普世智慧的人，而其中非常重要的只有几个。

He went on to emphasize at a later point, You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few.

他又强调：你必须知道重要学科的重大理论，勤加使用——要全都用出来，而非固定地只用几种。

Most people are trained in one model—economics, for example—and try to solve all problems in one way.

大多数人只学了某一学科的思维模式，比如经济学，就想套用到所有问题上。

You know the old saying: to the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail. This is a dumb way of handling problems.

俗话说：“在拿锤子的人看来，整个世界都是一颗钉子。”这种处理问题的方式是愚不可及的。

While I wouldn’t go so far as to say that having deep expertise in a discipline is dumb, it’s certainly not an optimal or efficient way of solving or understanding situations that life will toss your way.

在我看来，即使深入钻研某个学科谈不上愚不可及，但面对生活中林林总总的情况，这确实不是理解问题、解决问题的最佳方式或有效方式，

It leaves you woefully unequipped for whatever lies outside your primary knowledge base, but the answer isn’t to become an expert in every field. It’s finding your own latticework of mental models.

因为你会对主要知识库之外的领域知之甚少。但正确的做法并不是成为每个领域的专家，而是找到自己的思维模型框架。

Thus, Munger makes it clear that to navigate the world without a set of mental models is tantamount to blindfolding yourself and randomly pointing to a spinning globe while trying to find Cuba.

就这样，芒格清楚地表明，若是缺乏一套思维模型去处事，就等于蒙上眼睛，随意地往旋转的地球仪上一指，指望以此找到想找到的地方。

Without mental models as a blueprint to guide your thinking, you are only able to see haphazard, individual elements with no connection to each other.

缺少思维模型作为指引思考的蓝图，你只能看到一堆毫无章法的孤立元素，而找不到彼此之间的关联。

To continue with his hammer analogy, if you are working on a construction site, it would serve you well to know how to use a hammer, saw, nails, drill, sander, and so on.

沿用芒格拿锤子打的比方，如果你在建筑工地工作，就应该学会使用锤子、锯子、钉子、钻机、磨砂机，等等。

The more tools you are familiar with, the better you can handle different and novel construction jobs;

你能熟练掌握的工具越多，就越能处理建筑工地上不同的新工作；

the more mental models you acquire, the better you can deal with and understand old and new life occurrences.

你掌握的思维模型越多，就越能很好地理解和应对生活中各种发生过或从未遇到过的事件。

So what exactly is a mental model?

那么，准确地说，什么是思维模型呢？

It’s a blueprint to draw your attention to the important elements of whatever you are facing, and it defines context, background, and direction.

思维模型是针对你所面对的情况，指引你关注重要元素的蓝图，界定场景、背景和方向。

You gain understanding even if you lack actual knowledge or experience, and the ability to make optimal decisions.

即使缺乏实际知识或经验，你也能够增进了解，做出最佳决策。

For instance, if you are an aspiring chef, most of what you end up learning amounts to mental models:

例如，如果你在学习厨艺，有志成为厨师，那么你学到的大多数知识都组成了思维模型：

what kind of flavor profiles exist, what basic ingredients are needed for a stock or a sauce, typical techniques to use for different meats, and the conventional beverage and food pairings.

有哪些味道，做高汤或酱汁需要哪些基本食材，针对不同肉类有哪些常用的烹饪手法，饮料和食品有哪些常见的搭配。

Understand those, and you will generally know how to handle yourself with any type of cuisine.

了解到这些方面，你在做菜式的时候大致心中才能有数。

Absent a latticework of underlying models, each new recipe would present entirely new struggles.

缺少了相关模型框架，每一份新的食谱都会带来全新的难题。

Although many are universal, different situations will require different types of blueprints—and that’s why Munger so emphasized the latticework of mental models so as to be prepared in as many situations as possible.

虽然许多问题都有共同点，但不同的问题需要不同类型的蓝图。因此，芒格认为我们要掌握思维模型框架，为尽可能多的情况做好准备。

Without a mental model, you might see only a random assortment of lines.

缺少了思维模型，我们可能只看到一堆杂乱无章的线条。

But with an applicable mental model, it’s like being handed a map to what all those lines mean—now you can correctly interpret information and make an informed decision.

但有了适用的思维模型，我们就像拿到一幅地图，知道这些线条都有哪些含义，以此正确解读信息，做出明智的决策。

Mental models provide an understanding of the situation, and predictable results for what will happen in the future.

思维模型帮助我们了解情况，在可行的情况下，预测将会发生什么结果。

You can call them life heuristics or guidelines to evaluate and comprehend.

我们可以称之为人生的启发法或指南，帮助我们评估和理解情况。

You can also think of them as a set of goggles you can strap on when you want to focus on a specific goal.

我们也可以视之为一副护目镜，戴上以后，可以帮助你聚焦特定目标。

You might be thinking that no model is an entirely perfect reflection of the world, but they don’t have to be.

或许你会想，没有哪个模型可以百分百地反映世界，但也用不着百分百地反映世界，

They just need to point us in the right direction to the complexity around us and filter the signal from the noise.

只要在这个纷繁复杂的世界中能为我们指引正确的方向，从噪声中筛选出信号就可以了，

Anyway, that’s better than the alternative of being completely blind.

这总比完全处于盲目状态好。

We each already have our own mental models gleaned from years of simply living and noticing patterns of everyday life.

我们积累了多年的生活经验，从日常生活中总结规律，已经有了自己的思维模型。

Most of us have an idea of how to act in a fancy restaurant because we’ve been exposed to it in some way.

大多数人都知道高档餐厅的礼仪规范，因为我们或多或少接触过这样的环境。

We also have a set of mental models based on our values, experiences, and unique worldviews.

我们也根据自己的价值观、经验和独特的世界观，形成了一套思维模型。

You may refuse to use banks out of distrust for large institutions and keep your money tucked under your mattress as a rule of thumb

或许你出于对大机构的不信任，拒绝把钱存在银行，而是藏在自己的床底下，这也是你的经验法则

—no one ever said all mental models are useful, accurate, or widely applicable. Indeed, some can consistently lead us down the wrong path.

——谁说所有思维模型都是有用、准确或普遍适用的？事实上，有些思维模型每每会让我们误入歧途。

By definition, our personal mental models are limited and only reflect a biased perspective.

顾名思义，我们自己的思维模型是有局限性的，只反映了带有偏见的思维角度。

If my mental approach is the only thing I use when I’m trying to perceive and understand the world, I’m not going to have a very broad spectrum of comprehension about the world.

如果我们在努力观察和理解这个世界时，只使用自己的思维方式，我们对这个世界就不会有非常全面的理解。

Invariably, I will get some things completely wrong and would come up blank in other situations when nothing in my experience can apply.

我们必然会犯一些彻头彻尾的错误，遇到自己的经验都不适用的情况，就会茫然不知所措。

That’s where this book comes in. I want to introduce a latticework of mental models for you to operate better in the world.

这正是本书可以帮到你的地方，我想介绍一个思维模型框架，帮助你更好地应对各种情况。

Some are specific, while some are universal and widely applicable.

有些思维模型是具体的，有些思维模型是普遍和广泛适用的。

They will all assist you in thinking more clearly, making better decisions, and finding clarity in confusion.

这些思维模型可以帮助你更清晰地思考，做出更明智的决策，在混乱中找到清晰的方向。

Seeing the same object or event through different mental models will give you vastly different perspectives based on what you are focusing on, and certainly a wider array than if you would have just stuck to your own frame of reference.

通过不同的思维模型来看待同一事物，你重点关注的对象不同，就会产生截然不同的看法，这肯定比你光从自己的参照框架出发更加全面。

The more varied perspectives you possess, the more of the world we can understand.

你越是形成更多元化的思维角度，就越能更好地理解这个世界。

Our aspiring chef from earlier can view a basket of ingredients through a baker’s lens, a classic French chef’s lens, a sandwich artist’s lens, or a Szechuan Chinese chef’s lens.

我们在上文提到的厨师学徒可以从许多角度来看待一篮食材，包括烘焙师的角度、经典法式厨师的角度、三明治艺术家的角度、川菜厨师的角度，等等。

None of these models is necessarily the most optimal, but they give you a frame of reference as opposed to just staring at a bunch of ingredients and not having any idea of what to do with them.

没有哪个模型是最好的，但可以为你提供一个参照框架，而不是光盯着一堆食材无从下手。

Perhaps the most important part of mental models is that they act to prevent human error—appropriately, another one of Munger’s famous speeches was titled, “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment.”

或许思维模型最重要的作用，是防止你造成人为失误——芒格的另一次著名演讲题目恰恰是《人类误判心理学》。

With too few mental models, you risk falling prey to the fable of the blind men and the elephant, which goes something like the following;

如果你拥有的思维模型太少，就可能陷入盲人摸象的误区。这个寓言是这样的：

there were once six blind men, and they all reached out and could only feel different parts of an elephant: the knee, the side, the tusk, the trunk, the ear, and the tail.

有一天，有几个盲人想知道大象是什么样子的，都伸手去摸，却只摸到大象的不同部位：膝盖、身侧、牙齿、躯干、耳朵和尾巴。

None of these blind men were wrong in isolation, but they could only see from a single perspective, so they were wrong about the elephant’s overall appearance.

单独来看，每个盲人都没错，可他们只是从单一的角度判断，所以误判了整头大象是什么样子的。

Multiple models challenge each other to produce a more unified overview, whereas just using one or two restricts your long-range view to a limited context or discipline.

多个模型可以相互质疑，形成更统一的整体观点。而若是只使用一两个模型，就会让你只从具有局限性的场景或学科出发，致使远景不够开阔。

Having a huge range of mental models can expand your viewpoint and cancel out some of the stray “errors” that using just one or two models would produce.

掌握众多不同的思维模型，可以开拓你的视野，排除光使用一两个模型可能会产生的一些零星“失误”。

This doesn’t mean you have to know all the ins and outs of a million different disciplines to use multiple mental models.

即使你不懂得无数个学科的所有来龙去脉，也可以使用多个思维模型，

You just need to understand the basic points and fundamentals of a few essential ones. Just don’t be the person with a single hammer.

只要了解几个重要学科的要点和基本原理就可以。不管怎样，别做那个只拿一把锤子的人。

This first chapter delves deeply into decision-making mental models.

本书第一章深入剖析了决策思维模型。

In a sense, most mental models eventually help us with decisions, but these specific models are about how to process information more quickly and find an outcome that you are more likely to be happy with.

从某种意义上说，大多数思维模型归根到底都可以帮助我们做出决策，但这几个模型可以帮助我们更快速地处理信息，实现你更有可能感到满意的结果。

In other words, they get you from Point A to Point B in less time, and they might also help you define what Point A actually is.

换言之，你可以更快地从A点到达B点，或许还能界定A点实际上是什么。

Most of the time with decisions, we are overloaded with information—the classic signal-to-noise ratio problem.

我们要做出决策时，大多数时候都会面临海量信息，感到不堪重负——这是典型的信噪比问题。

You will learn to become selectively deaf and only intake what matters. That’s where we start with the first mental model.

你要学会选择性失聪，只听取重要的信号，这就涉及第一个思维模型。