经济学人社论||保护环境与石油巨头之间的矛盾
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导读
感谢思维导图作者
小兔，女，外企打工仔，设技爱好者
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Crude awakening
原油“觉醒”
英文部分选自经济学人Leaders版块
Big oil and the environment
石油大亨和环境保护
The truth about big oil and climate change
有关石油大亨和气候变化的真相
Even as concerns about global warming grow, energy firms are planning to increase fossil-fuel production. None more than ExxonMobil
即使人们愈发关注全球变暖，以埃克森美孚为首的能源公司仍计划扩大化石燃料生产。
In America, the world’s largest economy and its second biggest polluter, climate change is becoming hard to ignore. Extreme weather has grown more frequent. In November wildfires scorched California; last week Chicago was colder than parts of Mars. Scientists are sounding the alarm more urgently and people have noticed—73% of Americans polled by Yale University late last year said that climate change is real. The left of the Democratic Party wants to put a “Green New Deal” at the heart of the election in 2020. As expectations shift, the private sector is showing signs of adapting. Last year around 20 coal mines shut. Fund managers are prodding firms to become greener. Warren Buffett, no sucker for fads, is staking $30bn on clean energy and Elon Musk plans to fill America’s highways with electric cars.
美国是世界第一大经济体，也是第二大污染国，其民众已无法对气候变化置之不理。极端天气愈发频繁：十一月，野火席卷加州；上周，芝加哥比火星部分地区还要冷。科学家们敲响了警钟，人们终于意识到气候变化的后果。去年年末，耶鲁大学（Yale University）的民调显示，73%的美国人表示气候变化确有其事。左翼民主党意图在2020年的大选中以“绿色新政”作为竞选核心。私营部门也渐渐适应了这种期望的转变。去年，约二十处煤矿关闭。基金经理也督促企业要更加环保。沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）并不是个跟风的人，但也在清洁能源上投资300亿美元。此外，伊隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）计划在美国普及电动汽车。
注：
1. 退出《巴黎协定》的美国，可是全球第二大污染国！
http://www.sohu.com/a/145902906_174814
2. 美国遭遇极寒天气 部分地区最低气温将低过火星
https://www.guancha.cn/america/2018_01_04_441845.shtml
3. "绿色新政”在美国成为热词，和登月、马歇尔计划相提并论
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1619700142966835480&wfr=spider&for=pc
4. 民主党偏左,左翼;共和党则是右翼。
Yet amid the clamour is a single, jarring truth. Demand for oil is rising and the energy industry, in America and globally, is planning multi-trillion-dollar investments to satisfy it. No firm embodies this strategy better than ExxonMobil, the giant that rivals admire and green activists love to hate. As our briefing explains, it plans to pump 25% more oil and gas in 2025 than in 2017. If the rest of the industry pursues even modest growth, the consequence for the climate could be disastrous.
然而在这一片疾呼中却发出了不和谐音：石油的需求仍在上升，并且美国乃至全世界的能源公司都计划投资数万亿美元以满足此需求。其中，最为突出的是行业巨头埃克森美孚公司，竞争对手对其钦佩不已，环境保护者也对其又爱又恨。简单说来，它计划在2025年比2017年多开采25%的石油和天然气。即使该行业的其他企业只追求适度增长，也将对气候造成灾难性影响。
ExxonMobil shows that the market cannot solve climate change by itself. Muscular government action is needed. Contrary to the fears of many Republicans (and hopes of some Democrats), that need not involve a bloated role for the state.
埃克森美孚的做法表明市场无法自行解决气候变化问题，政府需要采取强有力的措施。与许多共和党人的担心(以及一些民主党人的希望)相反，这并不需要政府权利的过度膨胀。
For much of the 20th century, the five oil majors—Chevron, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, bp and Total—had more clout than some small countries. Although the majors’ power has waned, they still account for 10% of global oil and gas output and 16% of upstream investment. They set the tone for smaller, privately owned energy firms (which control another quarter of investment). And millions of pensioners and other savers rely on their profits. Of the 20 firms paying the biggest dividends in Europe and America, four are majors.
纵观二十世纪，雪佛龙(Chevron)、埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)、荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)、英国石油公司(bp)和道达尔(Total)，这五大石油巨头的影响力多超过一些小国。尽管石油巨头们的实力已有所减弱，它们仍占全球油气产量的10%和上游投资的16%，也为小型私营能源公司定下了发展基调（这些小公司投资占比1/4）。数以百万计的养老金领取者和其他储户都依赖于这些公司的利润。在欧洲和美国分红最多的20家公司中，有4家是石油巨头。
注:
Upstream investment : "Upstream" and "downstream" are general business terms referring to an oil or gas company's location in the supply chain. The closer to the end user a function or firm is, the further downstream it is said to be. Raw material extraction or production are elements of the supply chain considered to be upstream. The upstream companies identify oil and natural gas deposits and engage in the extraction of these resources from underground. These firms are often called exploration and production companies. Refiners represent the downstream element of the oil and gas supply chain.
【Extracted from:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/060215/what-difference-between-upstream-and-downstream-oil-and-gas-operations.asp】
In 2000 bp promised to go “beyond petroleum” and, on the face of it, the majors have indeed changed. All say that they support the Paris agreement to limit climate change and all are investing in renewables such as solar. Shell recently said that it would curb emissions from its products. Yet ultimately you should judge companies by what they do, not what they say.
2000年，英国石油公司承诺要超越石油事业，从面上看来，石油巨头们确实做出了改变。他们纷纷表示支持巴黎协定以遏制气候变化，并且投资太阳能等可再生能源，壳牌（Shell）最近表示将控制其产品的排放量，但最终人们还是应该根据它们的行动而非言辞来做出判断。
注:
bp: Beyond Petroleum?
http://www.herinst.org/sbeder/PR/bp.html#.XGewMXpubIU
According to ExxonMobil, global oil and gas demand will rise by 13% by 2030. All of the majors, not just ExxonMobil, are expected to expand their output. Far from mothballing all their gasfields and gushers, the industry is investing in upstream projects from Texan shale to high-tech deep-water wells. Oil companies, directly and through trade groups, lobby against measures that would limit emissions. The trouble is that, according to an assessment by the ipcc, an intergovernmental climate-science body, oil and gas production needs to fall by about 20% by 2030 and by about 55% by 2050, in order to stop the Earth’s temperature rising by more than 1.5°C above its pre-industrial level.
埃克森美孚预测：到2030年，全球油气需求量将上升13%。不单单是埃克森美孚，所有石油巨头都期望提高产量。石油业不但没有关停所有的气田和油井，还在投资德克萨斯页岩和高科技深水井等上游项目。各石油公司直接或间接通过贸易团体进行游说，反对限制排放的相关措施。问题是，据政府间气候变化科学委员会估计，,为了使气候变暖相较于工业化前不超过1.5°C，到2030年，油气产量需要减少20%，到2050年减少55%。
注:
1. IPCC
https://www.ipcc.ch/
2. 发现新宝藏！德州页岩层竟然存在几千亿美元的油气资源
http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2016/11/16141321714937.shtml
3. 全球平均气温升高控制在2 之内
http://www.sohu.com/a/48257151_119222
It would be wrong to conclude that the energy firms must therefore be evil. They are responding to incentives set by society. The financial returns from oil are higher than those from renewables. For now, worldwide demand for oil is growing by 1-2% a year, similar to the average over the past five decades—and the typical major derives a minority of its stockmarket value from profits it will make after 2030. However much the majors are vilified by climate warriors, many of whom drive cars and take planes, it is not just legal for them to maximise profits, it is also a requirement that shareholders can enforce.
如果由此就判定能源公司是丑恶的，那就大错特错了，他们只是对社会设定的激励机制做出回应。石油的利润回报要比可再生能源高。现在，全球对石油的需求每年上涨1-2%，与过去50年的平均水平相当，直到2030年，石油巨头才能从利润中获取少数股票市值。无论气候斗士们再怎么污蔑环保巨头，他们仍开私家车、坐飞机。巨头们追求利润最大化不仅是合法的，也是股东们的强烈需求。
Some hope that the oil companies will gradually head in a new direction, but that looks optimistic. It would be rash to rely on brilliant innovations to save the day. Global investment in renewables, at $300bn a year, is dwarfed by what is being committed to fossil fuels. Even in the car industry, where scores of electric models are being launched, around 85% of vehicles are still expected to use internal-combustion engines in 2030.
一些人寄希望于石油公司能朝着新方向发展，但这看起来太过乐观，想依赖一些杰出的创新技术来解决问题也是不现实的。全球每年对可再生能源的投资为3000亿美元，仍远远比不上对化石燃料的投资。即使在汽车行业已有许多电动车型上市，预计2030年约85%的汽车仍将使用内燃机。
So, too, the boom in ethical investing. Funds with $32trn of assets have joined to put pressure on the world’s biggest emitters. Fund managers, facing a collapse in their traditional business, are glad to sell green products which, helpfully, come with higher fees. But few big investment groups have dumped the shares of big energy firms. Despite much publicity, oil companies’ recent commitments to green investors remain modest.
道德性投资也在蓬勃发展，拥有32万亿资产的基金也在给全球最大的排放国施加压力。在传统业务濒临瓦解时，基金经理们乐于销售带来更高收费的绿色产品。然而，很少有大型投资集团抛售能源公司的股票。尽管大事宣传，石油公司近期对绿色投资者的投资也只算得上适度。
注:
Ethical investment: Ethical investment is also known as sustainable investment and socially responsible investment (SRI). The term describes an investment process that incorporates environmental and social factors when selecting investments, in addition to the objective of achieving a competitive financial return.
【Extracted from:
https://www.australianethical.com.au/what-is-ethical-investment/】
And do not expect much from the courts. Lawyers are bringing waves of actions accusing oil firms of everything from misleading the public to being liable for rising sea levels. Some think oil firms will suffer the same fate as tobacco firms, which faced huge settlements in the 1990s. They forget that big tobacco is still in business. In June a federal judge in California ruled that climate change was a matter for Congress and diplomacy, not judges.
也不要对法庭抱有太大的期望。律师们正不断向石油公司发起诉讼，指控他们误导公众，应对海平面上升负责。有些人觉得石油公司会遭受和烟草公司一样的命运——20世纪90年代，烟草公司面临巨额庭外和解费用。他们都忘记了烟草巨头仍在商界活跃。六月，加州一名联邦法官判定气候变化是国会和外交的责任，而不是法院的责任。
注:
烟草商2060亿美元天价赔偿——美国历史上最著名的集体诉讼案，就是消费者对美国烟草公司的集体诉讼。集团诉讼使烟草公司面临巨额索赔，不得不选择和解。1997年，美国密西西比州州检察长迈克·摩热曾带领全美46个地方州府与烟草商打过一场艰难的索赔官司。双方最终在1998年达成庭外和解。五大烟草商同意在25年内支付2060亿美元，以赔偿因吸烟引起的保健开支，从而换取46个州府的撤诉。
Settlement: A settlement is an agreement to end a disagreement or dispute without going to a court of law, for example, by offering someone money.（通过赔偿等达成的）庭外和解【from:柯林斯高阶英汉双解】
The next 15 years will be critical for climate change. If innovators, investors, the courts and corporate self-interest cannot curb fossil fuels, then the burden must fall on the political system. In 2017 America said it would withdraw from the Paris agreement and the Trump administration has tried to resurrect the coal industry. Even so, climate could yet enter the political mainstream and win cross-party appeal. Polls suggest that moderate and younger Republicans care. A recent pledge by dozens of prominent economists spanned the partisan divide.
未来十五年将是气候变化的关键时期。若创新人士，投资者，法院以及利己企业都无法遏制化石燃料的使用，就只能指望政治体系解决这一难题了。2017年，美国表示将退出《巴黎协定》，特朗普政府也努力重振国内煤矿产业。尽管如此，气候问题仍将成为政治主流议题，也将赢得跨党派的支持。民调显示，谦逊年轻共和党人士对此十分关切。近期，由数十位杰出的经济学专家做出的的承诺就跨越了党派分歧。
The key will be to show centrist voters that cutting emissions is practical and will not leave them much worse off. Although the Democrats’ emerging Green New Deal raises awareness, it almost certainly fails this test as it is based on a massive expansion of government spending and central planning (see Free exchange). The best policy, in America and beyond, is to tax carbon emissions, which ExxonMobil backs. The gilets jaunes in France show how hard that will be. Work will be needed on designing policies that can command popular support by giving the cash raised back to the public in the form of offsetting tax cuts. The fossil-fuel industry would get smaller, government would not get bigger and businesses would be free to adapt as they see fit—including, even, ExxonMobil.
关键是要让中立派选民认识到减排是可行的，也不会给他们带来更多弊端。尽管民主党正推行“绿色新政”以提高人们的环保意识，但失败几近成为定局，因为新政要以大规模扩大政府开销和广泛的计划经济为基础。于美国或是其他国家，解决这一问题的最好办法是征收碳排放税，此举也得到了埃克森美孚的支持，而法国的“黄马甲运动”则表明推广这一政策将会面临很大的阻力。因此在制定政策时要重视返钱于民来抵消征收的碳排放税，借此获得大众的支持。化石燃料产业规模将缩小，政府也不会壮大，企业可以根据自身需求自行调整——埃克森美孚也不例外。
翻译组：
Yao，男，英专本科生，北大苗子
Aileen，女，研究僧，经济学人粉丝
Charlotte，女，子瞻太白本命 经学粉
Eva ，女，经贸翻译学生，经济学粉丝
Rena，女，国际学校老师，经济学人爱好者
Rex，男，口译研究生， 立志成为同传 经学钢粉
校对组：
Neil, 男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉
Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟
Yuki，女 ，MPA专业大三，CATTI二笔 ，智性恋晚期
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观点|评论|思考
评论
VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者
减排和扩大化石能源的使用，两者看似是一对矛盾，但是毛主席教导我们，看待事物要看到其两面性，所以这对看似矛盾的冤家在某种情况下是一致的，并不矛盾。
具体的玩法如下：对于要打压的对象，譬如经济发展不错的，找不到发飙理由的，都可以抛出减排这根大棒，并且一旦抛出，在道义上就站在了至高点，横行无阻，也没有人会刚正面，这就完美地解决了很多原本需要花费大量精力才能达到的效果。然后么就可以坐下来谈了，对于那些想打压经济的，就在排放量上要挟对方，这时候就要大张旗鼓地宣传，让对方无法反驳，毕竟大家都是要脸的，也不好意思在明面上说我就是要搞经济，不管环保了；对于那些想找对方茬子的，也以此作为讨论的筹码，目的不在于此，只是在谈判时用这个筹码换个更好的而已。对于要在选举上有番作为的政治人物，显然减排和绿色环保也同样是一张屡试不爽的好牌（戈尔点了个赞）。至于选上后的具体环保减排措施，那得看想不想选举连任了，不想的话那就无所谓了，顺其自然吧，若要连任，那就有点麻烦，需要继续忽悠下去，做一些面子事情。
接下来的则是做实事了，选举需要钱吧，造墙也需要吧，维护世界秩序（无论是明的还是暗的）更加需要了，这些钱谁来出呢？没钱谁理你呢，就是个光杆司令。问家里要钱（国会）还真麻烦，问长问短，那只能找有钱的金主了，最佳的选择自然是那些石油大亨们了。但是所有利益都是互相的，这就到了动脑筋的时间了，在场面上说环保减排，应该怎么样才能让金主满意呢？一是打压新能源的发展，适时降低石油的价格就是很完美的一招，一直降吃不消，所以在对方有起来趋势的时候就降一波，让其产业的发展不能太顺。此外呢需要时不时抛出一些譬如页岩气啥的故事，让人有些期盼并且浮想联翩。
这样看来减排和扩大化石能源其实只是两把武器而已，没有那么神圣，关乎人类命运。至于效果如何，则完全取决于使用者的权威性，小弟弟们用起来几乎没人理睬，但大哥祭出此旗则可以披荆斩棘，所向披靡。
4
愿景
小组