政观学苑第1期 | 气候冲击、政治制度与早期现代东亚的游牧民族入侵

题 目

气候冲击、政治制度与早期现代东亚的游牧民族入侵

Climate Shocks,Political Institutions,and Nomadic Invasions in Early Modern East Asia

时 间

北京时间2021年3月31日（周三）19：00

主讲人

尹伟文  博士

香港教育大学亚洲及政策研究学习助理教授，德克萨斯A&M大学政治学博士，研究兴趣为国际政治经济学、比较政治经济学、国际法与国际组织以及经济史

讲座摘要

While a large literature argues negative climate shocks can trigger conflicts, recent findings suggest moderate climatic conditions lead to war. This article proposes a conditional theory by incorporating political institution as a moderating variable. I argue that, under the impact of negative climate shocks, centralized societies can mobilize more resources for war, compared to decentralized societies. Thus, the former is more likely to resort to well-organized plundering to address the scarcity problem caused by detrimental climate shocks. Besides, centralized societies have little incentive to plunder when the climatic conditions are moderate, as they can collect taxes regularly through centralized institutions. A comparison between the more centralized Manchurian and the less centralized Mongols on their conflictual behavior serves as an empirical test. I find that temperature was negatively associated with the probability of Manchurian invasion after they embraced centralization but had a positive effect on the likelihood of Mongol invasion.

会议地址

腾讯会议号：194 730 844

密码：0331

注意事项

为切实尊重和保护主讲者的知识产权，请参会观众务必遵守学术规范，在整个学术研讨过程中不截屏、不录像，未经主讲者许可不得引用报告中的理论、模型和实证分析等内容，也请勿私自对外传播。

美工：吴温泉    编辑：张天一

你在看政观么