Tesla is heading for a cash crunch
“WE ARE sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt.” So tweeted Elon Musk, boss of the electric-car company, on April 1st. He even posted a picture of himself supposedly drunk and inconsolable as proof. It was meant as an April Fool’s Day joke, but the gag backfired. It is uncomfortably close to the truth. America’s leading manufacturer of electric vehicles is under pressure. Mr Musk is fighting battles on many fronts and they all exacerbate his main threat: a financial squeeze that could eventually push Tesla over the edge.
“我们很遗憾地告诉大家，特斯拉已经彻底破产了。”4月1日，这家电动汽车公司的老板埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)在推特上写道。他甚至还贴出了一张自己喝醉了的照片作为证据，来显示绝望。这本来是愚人节的玩笑，但这个恶作剧却适得其反。事实的真相是令人不安的，美国最好的电动汽车制造商正面临压力。马斯克现在是四面楚歌，这些都加剧了他的主要威胁：可能最终将特斯拉推向（破产）边缘的财务困难。
Even Tesla’s shareholders, who are rarely put off by bad news, are jittery. Its shares have fallen by 16% since the end of February, most steeply after a Tesla using the firm’s Autopilot software crashed into a roadside barrier in California on March 23rd, killing the driver and raising questions about the safety of its system for semi-autonomous driving. The crash is being investigated by the authorities.
即使是连特斯拉很少被坏消息吓到的股东们也都战战兢兢。自2月底以来，特斯拉的股价已经下跌了16%，尤其是在3月23日，一辆用该公司自动驾驶仪软件的特斯拉汽车撞上加州的一个路边护栏，导致司机死亡，这使人们对其半自动驾驶系统的安全性提出质疑，其股票下跌更剧烈。当局正在调查事故原因。
The pile-up of woes continued on March 28th when a judge in Delaware decided to let a shareholder lawsuit proceed against Mr Musk and Tesla’s board over an alleged breach of duty involving the firm’s $2.6bn takeover in 2016 of SolarCity, a troubled solar-energy firm run by Mr Musk’s cousins. And on March 29th the firm announced a recall of around 123,000 older vehicles that may be susceptible to corrosion of a bolt that affects steering and parking. Such recalls are common among the world’s other carmakers. But in Tesla’s case it reinforces a view that the company is much better at developing the whizzy technology that underpins its cars than at mastering the humdrum business of making them in quantity.
悲剧还在继续，3月28日，特拉华州的一名法官决定让股东起诉马斯克和特斯拉董事会，理由是所谓的失职，包括该公司在2016年以26亿美元收购SolarCity，这是一家由马斯克的表兄弟经营的陷入困境的太阳能公司。3月29日，该公司宣布召回约12.3万辆老旧汽车，这些车辆疑似存在螺栓腐蚀，这会影响驾驶和停车。此类召回在全球其他汽车制造商中很常见。但在特斯拉的案例中，它强化了一种观点，即该公司更擅长开发能支撑其汽车的创新技术，而不是掌控大批量生产的单调业务。
Until recently Tesla made only small numbers of expensive long-range battery-powered cars. Its Model S saloon starts at $74,500 and its Model X sport-utility vehicle is pricier still. But Mr Musk has bet the future of his firm on mass-producing cheaper cars. The new Model 3, a smaller saloon costing as little as $35,000 with a range still exceeding 220 miles, has attracted over 400,000 deposits of $1,000 each from eager customers. Much of his firm’s expected future revenue and its lofty valuation (it stands at roughly $49bn today, even after the share-price falls) depends on rapidly scaling up production.
直到最近，特斯拉只生产了少量昂贵的远程电池驱动汽车。它的Model S轿车起价74500美元，Model X运动型多用途车（SUV）价格更高。但是马斯克先生已经把他的公司的未来押在了大规模生产更便宜的汽车上。新的Model 3，一款小型轿车，售价仅为3.5万美元，其续航里程仍超过220英里，这吸引了超过40万美元的预付款，这些钱来自热切想买车的客户，每人支付1000美金。他的公司预计未来的收入和高昂的估值(即使在股价下跌之后，目前的市值约为490亿美元)都依赖于迅速扩大生产规模。
Alas, Tesla has repeatedly failed to meet its own targets. In July 2017 Mr Musk claimed that his firm would be cranking out 20,000 Model 3s per month by December of that year. In fact, it managed to produce fewer than 2,500 in the entire final quarter of 2017. He vowed to produce 2,500 Model 3s a week by the end of March, rising to 5,000 a week by the end of June. Despite superhuman efforts by workers and managers (Mr Musk is personally supervising production of the new model and claims to be sleeping at the factory), on April 3rd Tesla confirmed that it is producing only around 2,000 Model 3 saloons a week.
唉，特斯拉已经不止一次未能实现自己的目标。在2017年7月，马斯克先生声称他的公司将在当年12月之前每月量产2万辆Model 3。事实上，该公司在2017年最后一个季度的产量不到2500辆。他承诺在3月底前每周生产2500辆Model 3s，到6月底时增加到5000台。尽管工人和经理们做出了超人的努力(马斯克亲自监督新车型的生产，并声称自己在工厂里睡觉)，但4月3日，特斯拉证实它每周只生产大约2000辆Model 3轿车。
Expectations were so low among analysts and investors that Tesla’s flagging share price rebounded after that announcement. Glossing over the fact that it has yet again failed to hit its promised target, the company boasted that the Model 3 assembly line is now providing “the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era.” If Tesla’s production growth rate continues, it claimed, “it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T.”
分析师和投资者对特斯拉的预期如此之低，以致于特斯拉低迷的股价在公告发布后出现反弹。为了掩盖该公司再次未能实现其承诺的目标的事实，该公司夸口说，Model 3的装配线现在是“当代汽车公司中增长最快的”。该公司称，如果特斯拉的生产增长率能保持下去，“它甚至会超过福特和Model T。”
Such bluster does not withstand scrutiny. Tesla is struggling with bottlenecks in the production of battery packs at its “gigafactory” in Nevada as well as with assembly of the Model 3 at its car plant in Fremont, California. The central problem is that Mr Musk has overcomplicated the already difficult task of making a mass-market car. Rather than relying on the time-tested manufacturing methods used by established rivals, who still use people to do tasks that machines are as yet unsuited for, he wants his car factory to be a hyper-automated “machine that makes machines”, bristling with robots and keeping human involvement to a minimum.
这种吹嘘经不起推敲。特斯拉在内华达州的“超级工厂”的电池组生产中遇到了瓶颈，同时在加州弗里蒙特(Fremont)的汽车厂组装了Model 3也遇到同样的问题。核心问题在于，马斯克把制造大众市场汽车的艰巨任务变得过于复杂化。他希望他的汽车工厂是一个“机器制造机器”的超自动化工厂，充满了机器人，并将人的参与控制在最低限度，而不是依靠那些经过时间考验的，被老牌对手使用的生产方法，他们用人工去完成那些机器还不适合的任务。
Employees at the Fremont plant describe a chaotic workplace in which Silicon Valley ideals of nimble innovation and robotic automation clash with the unglamorous realities of car-making, from the safe use of fork-lift trucks on the shop floor to the dexterous insertion of plastic parts in car interiors. Max Warburton at Bernstein, an equity-research firm, argues that the big global carmakers have realised—owing to bitter experience with overzealous previous attempts at automation—that a sensible mix of man and machine produces the most efficient car-assembly for the time being.
Fremont工厂的员工描述了一种混乱的工作场所，在这种工作环境中，硅谷的灵活创新和机器人自动化的理念与汽车制造的单调现实相冲突，从车间的叉车安全使用，到汽车内部的塑料零件的灵巧插入。一家股票研究公司Bernstein的Max Warburton认为，全球大型汽车制造商已经意识到，由于过去对汽车的过度热情导致痛苦的经历——一种合理的人与机器的组合，能在当下制造出最高效的汽车装配。
Even if Mr Musk’s dream of turning his factory into an “alien dreadnought” of automated mass production really points to a better way of making cars, he could run out of money before proving his case. Tesla lost over $2bn in 2017. Well before it confirmed the latest missed production target, investors worried about the firm’s cash-burn rate in 2018. In addition to the $2bn or so of capital that may be required to expand production of the Model 3, Tesla has some $1.2bn in convertible debt maturing by early next year. On March 27th Moody’s, a credit-rating agency, downgraded Tesla’s debt, cautioning that the firm “will likely need to raise additional capital during the second half of 2019”. Jefferies, a bank, predicts that Tesla will need $2.5bn to $3bn this year.
即使马斯克梦想将自己的工厂变成一个自动化大规模生产的“外星战舰”确实是制造汽车的好方式，在证明自己的观点之前，他的钱可能已经用光了。特斯拉在2017年亏损超过20亿美元。在确认最新的未完成的生产目标之前，投资者对该公司2018年的烧钱速率感到担忧。除了要扩大Model 3生产所需的20亿美元资本之外，特斯拉还有约12亿美元的可转换债券，在明年年初到期。3月27日，信用评级机构穆迪(Moody 's)下调了特斯拉的债务评级，警告称，该公司“可能需要在2019年下半年筹集额外资金”。投行杰富瑞(Jefferies)预计，特斯拉今年将需要25亿至30亿美元。
EV cloud
Tesla maintains that there is no imminent cash crunch. In a statement released on April 3rd, the firm insisted that it “does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.” Others think the moment of truth could come much sooner, perhaps in the summer. Whenever it arrives, the question is in what kind of environment Tesla will raise money. Rising interest rates, a wobbly share price and a continued inability to meet its own production goals would all conspire to make it harder for the firm to find capital. It does not help that General Motors, Volkswagen and other big rivals are making massive investments in EVs.
特斯拉坚称，目前还没有迫在眉睫的现金危机。在4月3日发布的一份声明中，该公司坚持认为“除了标准的信用额度外，今年不需要增加股本或债务。”另一些人认为，真相可能会来得更快，也许是在夏天。无论何时，问题都在于特斯拉将在何种环境下筹集资金。不断上升的利率、不稳定的股价以及无法实现自己的生产目标，都将使公司更难找到资金。通用汽车(General Motors)、大众汽车(Volkswagen)和其他大型竞争对手在电动汽车领域进行了大量投资，但这并没有起到什么作用。
Many shareholders retain their belief in Mr Musk’s ability to overturn conventional wisdom. But many short-sellers are still betting on the firm’s demise and fixed-income investors, who tend to be more interested in getting their money back than changing the world, are becoming antsier. The price of Tesla’s junk bonds is well below the level at which they were issued last year. In another tweet this week, Mr Musk summed it up this way: “Car biz is hell.” This time he wasn’t joking.
许多股东仍然相信马斯克有能力推翻传统观点。但许多卖空者仍押注于该公司的破产，更希望把钱拿回来，而不是改变世界的固定收益投资者，开始坐立不安了。特斯拉垃圾债券的价格远低于去年的水平。在本周的另一条推特上，马斯克这样总结道:“汽车行业是地狱。这一次他不是在开玩笑。
This article appeared in the Business section of the print edition under the headline "Driving to the next circle of hell"
英文原文选自《经济学人》