【新刊速递】 第40期 | International Studies Quarterly, No.2, 2020

期刊简介

《国际研究季刊》（International Studies Quarterly）是国际研究协会的旗舰期刊，由牛津大学出版社每年发行四期，旨在发表与国际研究中重要理论性、实证性、规范性主题相关的领先学术成果。根据Journal Citation Reports的数据，2018年该期刊的影响因子为2.172。

本期编委

【编译】张曼娜 金琳 房宇馨 朱晓洁 吴天麟

【校对】金琳 房宇馨 张曼娜 刘瑛琛 蔡宇

【审核】金磊

【排版】赵怡雯

本期目录

1. 选择背叛还是坚守立场？关于内战和平协议设计的解释

Selling Out or Standing Firm? Explaining the Design of Civil War Peace Agreements

2. 以美国为例，为什么公众更支持贸易保护主义？

Why is the Mass Public Not More Supportive of Free Trade? Evidence from the United States

3. 谁想当人肉炸弹？从伊斯兰国入伍人员中抽取的证据

Who Wants to Be a Suicide Bomber? Evidence from Islamic State Recruits

4. 欧洲议会对全面贸易协定的信任与支持

Trust and Support for Comprehensive Trade Agreements in the European Parliament

5. “谋杀的出口”：美国移民驱逐政策与暴力的扩散

Exporting Murder: US Deportation and the Spread of Violence

01

选择背叛还是坚守立场？关于内战和平协议设计的解释

【题目】Selling Out or Standing Firm? Explaining the Design of Civil War Peace Agreements

【作者】Deniz Cil，马里兰大学国际发展与冲突管理中心（CIDCM）的博士后学者；Alyssa K. Prorok，伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校政治学助理教授

【摘要】反政府武装领导层在何时会选择“背叛”其支持群体，为换取和平签署使精英团体而非其支持者受益的协议？他们又在何时会选择坚定立场，努力争取有利于其支持者的和解条款？本文探讨内战和平协议设计中的差异。本文认为，支持者、战斗人员和反政府精英对和平条件有不同的偏好，并且出于对支持群体的依赖和对其负责的考量，反政府武装领导人将努力争取反映其支持群体偏好的和平方案。特别是，那些更依赖于平民来支持其军事和政治权力的领导人更有可能签署有利于平民支持者利益的协议，而那些不依赖于平民的领导人则会较少考虑平民利益。本文利用有关在1989年至2009年间所有达成的最终和平协议设计的原始数据，以及一些代表这些反政府组织团体对平民支持者依赖程度的指标，来检验这一论点。通过使用各种统计检验和解释和平协议中的非随机选择，本文的假设得到了有力的支持。

When do rebel leaders “sell out” their constituents in the terms of peace by signing agreements that benefit group elites over the rebel constituency, and when do they instead “stand firm,” pushing for settlement terms that benefit the public they claim to represent? This article examines variation in the design of civil war settlement agreements. It argues that constituents, fighters, and rebel elites have different preferences over the terms of peace, and that rebel leaders will push for settlements that reflect the preferences of whichever audience they are most reliant on and accountable to. In particular, leaders of groups that are more civilian-reliant for their military and political power are more likely to sign agreements that favor broad benefits for civilian constituents, while leaders who do not depend on civilian support for their political and military power will sign agreements with fewer public benefits. We test this argument using original data on the design of all final peace agreements reached between 1989 and 2009, and several proxies for the group’s level of reliance on civilian supporters. Using a variety of statistical tests and accounting for nonrandom selection into peace agreements, we find strong support for our hypothesis.

【编译】房宇馨

【校对】张曼娜

【审核】金磊

02

以美国为例，为什么公众更支持贸易保护主义？

【题目】Why is the Mass Public Not More Supportive of Free Trade? Evidence from the United States

【作者】David H.Bearce，科罗拉多大学波尔得分校的政治学和国际事务教授；Samantha L.Moya，科罗拉多大学波尔得分校政治学博士候选人

【摘要】本文探讨了为什么公众更倾向于保护主义，尽管有充分的经济理由支持自由贸易。作者认为，由于缺乏训练，在物价稳定的宏观经济环境中，公众并没有意识到市场开放为消费价格提供的好处。由于媒体对国际贸易更多地关注雇佣成本而不是消费者利益，以及出于损失厌恶的心理，导致了即使公众意识到这一点，也下意识的将这些利益大打折扣。美国样本的调查结果显示，失业比价格低廉与贸易偏好的联系更加紧密。鉴于前者会促使公众持对贸易不那么有利的态度，作者测试了在积极的信息条件下，公众的态度是否会朝向有利于贸易的方向转变。有关消费者利益的事实并没有发挥多大的影响，但是关于影响就业的信息扭转了人们的消极态度。因此，在目前的环境下，如果想要有效的推动人们对自由贸易的支持，比起价格，就业更具有吸引力。

This article explores why citizens favor protection despite the economic case for free trade. It argues that due to a lack of training and in an environment of stable prices, many individuals are not aware of the consumption benefits. Even when they are aware, citizens tend to discount these benefits due to media coverage of the employment costs and loss aversion. The article presents survey evidence from an American sample, showing that a belief in lost jobs is more strongly associated with trade preferences than a belief in lower prices. Given that the former pushes citizens toward less favorable trade attitudes, it also presents evidence from a priming experiment, testing if attitudes can be moved in a more favorable direction with positive information. Factual information about the consumer benefits has no effect, but information about the employment effects shifts attitudes positively. In the present environment, it thus appears more effective to prime pro-trade attitudes by appealing to jobs than to prices.

【编译】金琳

【校对】房宇馨

【审核】金磊

03

谁想当人肉炸弹？从伊斯兰国入伍人员中抽取的证据

【題目】 Who Wants to Be a Suicide Bomber? Evidence from Islamic State Recruits

【作者】Andrea Michelle Morris，罗切斯特大学政治学博士候选人

【摘要】由于不少自杀式炸弹袭击者是养尊处优并接受过高等教育的人，此现象往往被广泛用作证明恐怖组织中高素质成员普遍自愿执行自杀任务的证据。本文将通过分析含有伊斯兰国（ISIS）人员记录的数据集来测试以上的假设。此数据集包含自愿参加自杀式任务的人员而非参加普通战斗任务人员的特征。分析结果显示宗教知识和教育水平与自愿参加自杀式任务呈负相关，否决了先前的假设。相反地，这些结果更符合另一个解释，即高素质成员之所以更容易参加自杀性任务是因为恐怖组织领袖从入伍人员中精挑细选并选择高素质成员担任人肉炸弹。以上结果显示在产生人肉炸弹的过程中，恐怖组织领袖的需求远比人员供应重要。

Suicide attackers are frequently educated and economically well-off. These findings are widely taken as evidence that highly competent individuals predominately volunteer to conduct suicide operations. I evaluate this theory using a novel dataset on the personnel records of members of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The dataset contains information on the characteristics of individuals who volunteer for suicide attacks as opposed to normal combat missions. The results reject the self-selection hypothesis, as education and religious knowledge are negatively associated with volunteering for suicide attacks. Instead, the findings are consistent with an alternative explanation for why high-quality individuals commit suicide attacks: leaders of terrorist organizations carefully screen recruits and select high-quality individuals to commit these attacks. The results highlight the importance of leader demand rather than soldier supply of suicide bombers.

【编译】吴天麟

【校对】蔡宇

【审核】金磊

04

欧洲议会对全面贸易协定的信任与支持

【题目】Trust and Support for Comprehensive Trade Agreements in the

European Parliament

【作者】Sara Norrevik，布法罗州立大学政治科学系博士候选人

【摘要】全面贸易协定(Comprehensive Trade Agreements，CTAs)作为新一代自由贸易协定，对传统的贸易优惠模式构成了挑战。为了了解对CTAs的偏好，作者提出了一个新的预测因子——对政府的信任，来解释欧洲议会对CTAs的支持。同时，作者建立了一个包含经济和非经济因素的统一框架以解释贸易优惠，并对支持CTAs的三种情况进行了分析：跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系(TTIP)、与加拿大的全面经济贸易协定(CETA)和欧盟—韩国自由贸易协定。通过利用一个关于贸易投票的原始数据集和多层次模型，作者发现，公民对政府的信任度越高，欧洲议会成员就越有可能投票支持CTAs。本文为公众信任与精英立场的联系提供了新的理论论证和见解。

Comprehensive Trade Agreements (CTAs) constitute a new generation of free trade agreements, which challenge traditional models of trade preferences. To understand preferences toward CTAs I present a new predictor, trust in government, that explains support for CTAs in the European Parliament. I develop a unified framework that includes economic and noneconomic factors to explain trade preferences, and analyze support for three recent CTAs: the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement with Canada (CETA), and the EU-Korea Free Trade Agreement. Using an original dataset on trade voting and a multilevel model, I show that higher levels of citizens trust in government make Members of the European Parliament more likely to vote in favor of CTAs. My research offers a novel theoretical argument and insights on the connection between public trust and elite position-taking.

【编译】张曼娜

【校对】金琳

【审核】金磊

05

“谋杀的出口”：美国移民驱逐政策与暴力的扩散

【题目】Exporting Murder: US Deportation and the Spread of Violence

【作者】Christian Ambrosius, 柏林自由大学拉美研究所研究员，墨西哥国立自治大学客座教授；David A. Leblang，弗吉尼亚大学政治学教授

【摘要】现有的关于国家间暴力差异的文献很少关注犯罪的跨国传播。犯罪跨国传播的途径之一是强迫有犯罪记录的移民从暂住国返回（原籍国）。作为对这一研究空白的回应，作者利用2003年到2014年间共123个国家的一个跨国面板数据集，研究了美国驱逐出境的罪犯对其原籍国暴力犯罪水平的影响。作者发现，被驱逐出境的罪犯对其原籍国凶杀率有着强烈和稳健的影响，这一影响很大程度上受到美国向拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区的移民驱逐政策的推动。每10万人中额外流入10个有犯罪前科的被驱逐者，预期凶杀率大约会增加2。除了控制国家固定效应，作者还以移民人口受美国州级移民政策影响的空间和时间变化作为工具变量进行估计，从而给出了因果证据。

Existing literature on cross-national variation in violence has paid little attention to the transnational transmission of crime. One such channel is the forced return of migrants with a penal record in their country of temporary residence. Responding to this research gap, we study the effect of US deportation of convicts on the level of violence crime in deportees’ country of origin for a cross country panel of up to 123 countries covering the years 2003—2014. We found a strong and robust effect of the deportation of convicts on homicide rates in countries of origin, which is to a large degree driven by deportations to Latin America and the Caribbean. An additional inflow of ten deportees with a prior criminal history per 100,000 increases expected homicide rates by roughly two. In addition to controlling for country-specific fixed effects, we provide evidence on a causal effect using a instrumental variable approach, which exploits spatial and time variation in migrant populations’ exposure to state level immigration policies in the united states.

【编译】朱晓洁

【校对】刘瑛琛

【审核】金磊

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