【新刊速递】第53期 | Chinese Journal of International Politics, No.3 / 开普饭

期刊简介

《中国国际政治杂志》（The Chinese Journal of International Politics）成立于2006年，主编是孙学峰教授，是由牛津大学出版社每季度出版的经同行评议的学术期刊，以现代方法论为基础研究国际关系，也发表历史研究和政策导向的论文。该期刊大部分文章或与中国有关，或对中国的外交政策有影响。

本期编委

【编译】杨沛鑫徐一凡戴赟黄慧彬伍雨荷

【审校】邵良卫艺璇姚寰宇王国欣李博轩

【排版】卢奕财

本期目录

1. 数字时代早期的两极对峙

Bipolar Rivalry in the Early Digital Age

2. 避免中美冷战升温

Preventing the China-U.S. Cold War from Turning Hot

3. 时光与中国的崛起

Time and the Rise of China

4. 叙事框定和美国对竞争对手的威胁建构

Narrative Framing and the United States’ Threat Construction of Rivals

5. 在多元国际关系理论下构筑共同话语体系

Building a Common Language in Pluralist International Relations Theories

数字时代早期的两极对峙

【题目】Bipolar Rivalry in the Early Digital Age

【作者】阎学通（清华大学资深教授、俄罗斯科学院院士、国际关系研究院院长、世界和平论坛秘书长）。

【摘要】2019年见证了中美两极对峙正以一种不同于冷战时期美苏两极的方式缓慢拉开序幕。较之冷战两极格局而言，中美两极对峙最基本的不同在于，新兴数字战略竞争而不是意识形态之争成为了国际竞争的主要驱动力。过去15年来，科技的发展使得世界历史进入了前数字时代。数字科技的发展创造了维护国家安全，积累国家财富以及获取国际援助的新方式。网络安全成为了国家安全的核心，数字经济的盈余也成为了国民生产总值急速发展的新推力。对于前数字时代的大国来说，网络空间的战略竞争在很大程度上超过了物质地缘层面的竞争。本文认为，冷战思维和数字思维将会对前数字时代的国家外交政策制定造成混合的影响，而受到这两种影响的国家在进行互动时会造就一种不安定的和平，这种和平体现在直接战争的消失和代理人战争的减少。然而，这种被造就的和平也会反映出全球化和全球治理的缺点，例如国家对协定的违反，对某些事务的双重标准，网络攻击以及技术的相互脱钩。虽然技术的持续革新会进一步改变国际政治的更多方面，但是中美之间的两极格局仍然会保持至少二十年甚至更长的时间。

The year 2019 saw the curtain rise on a US–China bipolar rivalry quite different from the Cold War US–Soviet bipolarity. The fundamental difference between the current bipolar rivalry and that during the Cold War is that ideology is no longer the main engine driving international competition, but rather the new digital dimension of strategic competition that is emerging between the United States and China. Technological advancement over the past 15 years has led world history’s entry into the early digital age. The development of digital technology has created new ways of protecting national security, of accumulating national wealth, and of obtaining international support. Cybersecurity is becoming the core of national security and the share of digital economy in major powers’ gross domestic product dramatically increases. For the leading powers, strategic competition in cyberspace in this early digital age outstrips to a crucial extent that within physical geographic boundaries. This article observes that Cold War mentality and digital mentality will have mixed impact on foreign policy-making in the digital age, and that interactions between the nations whose foreign policy is simultaneously influenced by both mentalities will shape the emerging international order into one of uneasy peace, where there is no direct war and few proxy wars. It will rather be a scenario reflecting the dark side of globalization and downside of global governance, evident in the violation of agreements, double dealing, cyber-attacks, and technology decoupling between states. Although further digital advancement will indeed change international politics in ever more aspects, US–China bipolar configuration will nevertheless remain in place for at least for two decades, or perhaps longer.

【编译】杨沛鑫

【审校】邵良

避免中美冷战升温

【题目】Preventing the China-U.S. Cold War from Turning Hot

【作者】Christopher Layne，得克萨斯农工大学（Texas A&M University）杰出教授，罗伯特·盖茨国际安全讲席教授，任教于该校布什政府与公共服务学院。他的研究领域包括：国际关系理论、大国政治、美国对外政策和大战略。他的知名著作有《和平的幻想：1940以来的美国大战略》。

【摘要】在特朗普政府时期，中美关系已经恶化到了美国对外政策建制派就中美进入了新冷战这一点达成了共识的程度。本文通过审视“第一次冷战”的起源来寻求避免第二次冷战的方法。冷战会因为权力转移的动态变化而有升温的危险。本文还提到了1914年以前的英德对抗，认为如果要避免冲突，美国必须通过交出东亚霸权并满足中国的地位要求来适应中国的崛起。

During the Trump administration, Sino-American relations have deteriorated to the point where the new consensus in the U.S. foreign policy establishment is that a new Cold War has begun between the U.S. and China. This article looks at the origins of the “first Cold War” for insight into how a second Cold War might be avoided. There is a danger of the Cold War turning hot because of power transition dynamics. This article also invokes the pre-1914 Anglo-German rivalry, and argues that if conflict is to be avoided, the U.S. must accommodate China's rise by yielding hegemony in East Asia and meeting China's status claim.

【编译】徐一凡

【审校】卫艺璇

时光与中国的崛起

【题目】Time and the Rise of China

【作者】David M Edelstein 乔治城大学政埃德蒙·A·沃尔什外事学院与政府系副教授

【摘要】不同的时间动态对国际政治有何影响?近年来，一般而言，在有关政治和具体的国际关系文献中，时间动态越来越受到关注，但尚未有人系统地将这些洞见应用于权力转移的案例。这篇文章探讨了四个不同的因素，即时间跨度、特定时间、时间顺序和时间轨迹，这四个因素如何影响国家的行为方式，特别是在权力转移的背景下。每一种动态都有助于更丰富地理解大国合作与竞争的本质。对于这四种动态，本文列出了各自对现有有关权力转移文献的独特逻辑，然后利用权力转移的历史记录来证明逻辑。然后，文章在个人、国家和国际系统层面上考察了各种时间动态因素的影响。对于整篇文章来说，该文都在评论当代中美关系的含义。

How do various temporal dynamics affect international politics? Time has been gaining more attention in recent years in the literature on politics, generally, and international relations, more specifically, but no effort has been made systematically to apply these insights to the case of power transitions. This article explores how four different factors—time horizons, timing, sequencing, and trajectories—influence the way that states behave, specifically in the context of power transitions. Each of these dynamics contributes to a richer understanding of the nature of great power cooperation and competition. For each of these four dynamics, the article lays out the logic of what each uniquely adds to the existing literature on power transitions and then demonstrates the logic by drawing on the historical record of power transitions. Then, the article examines a variety of factors at the individual, state, and systemic level that might influence how each of these temporal dynamics unfolds. Throughout, the article comments on implications of the argument for contemporary relations between the United States and China.

【编译】戴赟

【校对】姚寰宇

叙事框定和美国对竞争对手的威胁建构

【题目】Narrative Framing and the United States’ Threat Construction of Rivals

【作者】 袁正清，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所高级研究员；傅强，中央财经大学外国语学院副教授。

【摘要】构建一个可信的外部威胁是美国国家安全界的重要任务。通过采取对威胁形成的叙事研究路径，我们试图勾勒出美国的威胁话语谱系中苏联、日本和中国的轮廓。苏联的威胁形象是通过两个意识形态对立的竞争对手争夺世界领导地位的故事构建起来的，抨击日本威胁的叙述源于日本的不公平竞争而使美国成为受害者这一故事。然而，构建中国威胁形象的故事则更为复杂，这一故事由特朗普总统鼓吹的中国不公平竞争带来的美国受害论，加上崛起国和主导国之间广泛内嵌但又可塑的史诗般的权力斗争，以及鹰派“幕后政府”宣传的新冷战剧本共同构成。我们发现只要有一个国家可能会对美国的霸主身份产生潜在的威胁，无论是像苏联那样持敌对态度的强大国家，还是日本那样的内部盟友，或是像中国这样的正在崛起的竞争者，美国都会以零和思维构建一个关于自身-他者截然不同的故事，并在根据对手的特征和挑战的维度定制一个关于威胁的故事剧本的同时，不遗余力地维护自我的优越地位。

Constructing a credible foreign threat is a key activity in the US national security community. By adopting a narrative approach to threat formation, we attempt to delineate the contours of the Soviet Union, Japan, and China in the US threat discourse spectrum. The Soviet threat is constructed through a story of two ideologically opposed rivals competing for world domination and the Japan-bashing narrative is of victimisation due to Japan’s unfair competition. China threat stories, however, are now more complex, conflating a story of US victimhood at the hands of China’s unfair competition, advocated by President Trump, with a widely embedded but malleable epic tale of power competition between a rising power and the ruling power, and a new Cold War script propagated by the 'deep state' hawks. We have found that as long as a country may potentially threaten the United States’ hegemonic identity, be it a formidable power with an antagonistic outlook like the Soviet Union, an ally from inside like Japan, or a rising peer competitor like China, the United States will invariably construct a diametrical self-other story in a zero-sum mindset and resort relentlessly to its superior Self while customising its threat story scripts in accordance with the rival’s characteristics and dimensions of challenges.

【编译】黄慧彬

【审校】王国欣

在多元国际关系理论下构筑共同话语体系

【题目】Building a Common Language in Pluralist International Relations Theories

【作者】 Mario Telò，国际社会科学自由大学和法语布鲁塞尔自由大学国际关系教授。

【摘要】本文旨在推动世界国际关系学界共同科学话语体系的构建。作者赞同中国许多主要学者所提出的目标，即建立多元主义的国际关系理论，以超越西方中心论的主流理论，提供欧陆的理论视角。欧陆理论视角一方面综合考虑了葛兰西、博比奥和哈贝马斯的遗产，另一方面也审视了欧洲一体化作为区域合作先进实例的理论意义。由于这一探讨必须在尽可能高的理论层次上进行，本文作者在日益丰富多元的中国国际关系学界中选择了两项前沿理论作为中国国际关系理论的代表：秦亚青和阎学通最新发表的英文著作。这两位学者的观点在中国乃至世界范围内的国际关系理论讨论中都具有基础性的参照意义。他们开创了两条全新的路径：秦亚青的“关系理论”以及阎学通的“道义现实主义”。作者自由、开放、辩证地探讨了两位学者关于国际关系理论与全球政治的主要观点和概念，尤其关注两者在独特文化背景与多边趋同倾向之间的平衡，在霸权、统治、领导地位等关键概念上的差异，以及对多极化趋势下全球政治走向的不同观点——全球政治权力架构究竟会走向后霸权时代的新型多边主义，还是会走向两极分化以及领导权的争夺？

This article aims to contribute to the gradual building of a common scientific language within the world International Relations (IR) epistemic community. The author shares the objective, indicated by many leading Chinese scholars, of a pluralist IR theory that goes beyond Western-centric mainstream theories to provide a European continental perspective. Such a perspective takes stock, on the one hand, of the legacy of Gramsci, Bobbio, and Habermas, and, on the other, of the theoretical implications of European unity as a sophisticated instance of regional cooperation. Since the dialogue must be at the highest possible theoretical level, the author selects as main partners two leading theories from the increasingly rich and internally various Chinese IR scholarship: the books recently published in English by Qin Yaqing and Yan Xuetong, who represent—not only in China, but at world level—two fundamental references in the international theoretical debate. They lead two innovative approaches: Qin’s relational theory and Yan’s theory of moral realism. The author discusses their main theses and concepts regarding IRT and global governance in a free, open, and dialectic way, notably, the balance between background cultures and multilateral convergence; and the differences between the crucial concepts of hegemony, domination, and leadership, as well as alternative perspectives on global governance within a multipolar world—a new post-hegemonic multilateralism? Or a bipolar global power structure competing for leadership?

【编译】伍雨荷

【审校】李博轩

文章观点不代表本平台观点，本平台评译分享的文章均出于专业学习之用, 不以任何盈利为目的，内容主要呈现对原文的介绍，原文内容请通过各高校购买的数据库自行下载

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【新刊速递】第53期 | Chinese Journal of International Politics, No.3

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