经济学人财经||日本经济依旧前路坎坷
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导读
感谢思维导图作者Mayof
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Still sputtering
前路依旧坎坷
英文部分选自经济学人Finance and economics版块
Japan’s economy
日本经济
Still sputtering
前路依旧坎坷
A planned increase in sales taxes could snuff growth out altogether
计划中的消费税增加可能会掐灭经济增长的火花
Among the pledges Shinzo Abe made in 2012, as he started his second stint as Japan’s prime minister, was to double the sales-tax rate. At 5% it was low by rich-country standards, and Japan’s public finances, battered by years of deficits, needed shoring up. But having gone part-way, to 8%, in 2014, he has twice put off finishing the job for fear of choking off a tentative economic recovery. That increase is now scheduled for October, and he is loth to delay a third time—so much so that he has said that only “an event with the magnitude of the Lehman Brothers shock” would deter him.
Everyone agrees that a higher sales tax is needed, but they differ on the wisdom of a speedy move. The previous hike provoked a sharp downturn. Now fresh signs of economic weakness are leading to fears of a repetition.
Just a few months ago the government was congratulating itself on having overseen Japan’s longest economic expansion since the second world war (as judged by a panel of experts appointed by the cabinet office). But last month the cabinet office downgraded its headline economic assessment for the first time in three years, blaming foreign factors, including China’s slowing economy. Their gloominess is widely shared. Freya Beamish of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy, points to the purchasing managers’ index and machine orders, both indicators of manufacturing activity, as well as the Tankan survey, a measure of business sentiment, and data on housing and retail sales. All show signs of weakness. First-quarter GDP figures, due out on May 20th, are expected to show a contraction.
几个月前，安倍政府还在庆祝见证日本进入了一段二战以来持续时间最长的经济增长期（内务省任命的专家小组作出的判断）。但就在上个月，内务省三年来首次下调了经济形势评估，并将这次下调归因于中国经济放缓等国外因素。并非只有内务省专家对经济前景表示悲观。潘西恩宏观经济咨询公司(Pantheon MacroEconomics)的弗雷娅·比米什(Freya Beamish)指出，不论是衡量制造业景气度的采购经理人指数(PMI)和机器订单量，还是衡量商业情绪的短观调查(Tankan survey)，以及房地产和零售业的数据，均表现出了疲软迹象。预计5月20日公布的第一季度GDP值将会缩水。
注：日本季度短观调查报告(Tankan Survey): 日本季度短观调查报告 由日本中央银行发布的对日本商业进行的经济调查报告，日本央行以此报告为依据，制定相关的货币政策。
Some argue that the sales tax could still be raised on schedule. Koichi Hamada, an economist at Yale University and an architect of Abenomics, as Mr Abe’s economic programme is known, notes that the labour market is tight, suggesting an underlying resilience. And in contrast to 2014, points out Takatoshi Ito, a former official at the ministry of finance now at Columbia University, the government plans to mitigate the impact by returning much of the extra revenue to consumers, rather than seeking to reduce the deficit as fast as possible.
The budget for 2019 includes ¥2trn ($18bn) of offsetting measures. Food, non-alcoholic drinks and newspapers will continue to be taxed at 8%. Poor households will receive shopping vouchers. Customers of smaller businesses will get rebates worth 5% of their purchase, or 2% at restaurants and convenience stores, provided they pay without cash.
But plenty of observers are urging continued caution. Subdued price pressures mean that inflation remains far below the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%. If the economy is weak enough to require a negative interest rate (the Bank of Japan charges 0.1% annually to hold some reserves), it is surely too weak to withstand a tighter fiscal stance, they argue. And although gross public debt stands at around 2.5 times annual gdp, rock-bottom interest rates mean that servicing it is affordable.
“Raising the consumption tax is putting the cart before the horse,” says Ms Beamish. Japan’s economy has long channelled too much cash into the corporate sector, at the expense of households. Tight-fisted managers have been reluctant to raise dividends or wages, and despite the government’s attempts to chivvy them into openhandedness, change is slow. “If they hike without having redirected income to the household sector, it’s a burden [households] can’t meet,” says Ms Beamish.
Even some supporters think that if Mr Abe has to pause yet again, he will have only himself to blame. He has undoubtedly had a hand in Japan’s tentative economic recovery, mainly through monetary loosening, although the comfortable global environment helped. But he has also delayed reforms that would have put the economy on a firmer footing. Mr Ito points to proposals that could boost wages and therefore spending, such as changing tax incentives so that companies stop paying huge sums at retirement and instead increase compensation during workers’ careers. Without such measures, Mr Abe finds himself in an odd position for a politician: trying to raise taxes, even at the cost of potentially provoking yet another recession.
翻译组：
Olivia，教育从业者，经济学人粉丝
Leon, 男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉
Lucia ，女，翻译学硕士三年制，经济学人粉丝Martina，女，谷歌广告从业者，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济
校核组：
Jessie Lulu, 金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人
Alex，男，工科研究生，文学与科学爱好者，经济学人忠实读者
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观点|评论|思考
本期评论员
Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝
在人类历史上各国主要用两种货币制度：
a. 与硬通货（通常黄金）挂钩的货币
b. 无任何发行约束的纸币（fiat currency）
这两种货币制度都有各自的优缺点。各国君王显然更倾向于第二种，给予自己无限印发货币的权力，为了维护这项权利通常都严令禁止居民生产假币并施以极其严厉的惩戒。然而可以无限印发货币的权力容易诱使君王胡乱使用财政开支，面对财政赤字时要么增加税收，要么国家发债筹取资金，要么直接印发货币为自己所用，最后一种最最直接又有效所以总会选择最后一种。
不断的货币超发导致通胀上升，抑制了企业家的投资需求，经济下滑国家显露颓势，为了通胀不再影响经济，国家改用第一种货币制度，与硬通货挂钩的货币制度有效得抑制了通胀，但是经济发展受制于硬通货的限制，通货数量无法和经济增长完全契合，于是国家又转向第二种货币制度，周而复始。
进入近代之后人类对经济与货币的研究让各国政策制定者逐渐意识到了这个问题，而多次的货币制度的失败也都给经济学家们提供了可供研究的材料。随着最后一次固定汇率的彻底瓦解，也就是布雷顿森林体系，越来越多的国家弃用与硬通货挂钩的货币制度，从此黄金和白银彻底淡出了人类的货币历史舞台。各国意识到使用无发行约束的货币制度虽然灵活方便但是滥发货币填补财政赤字的做法其实会引起更大的货币与经济危机，因而首先要限制政府干预货币发行的能力，各国于是建立起独立的央行（当然了各国的央行独立性差距很大），同时新西兰央行率先采用了2%为通胀目标的货币政策，各国发现这是一个非常透明且有助于经济发展的货币政策目标，于是纷纷效仿。
2%的通胀目标比0%通胀目标的更好的一个原因是，经济学家认为2%通胀在经济中可以扮演一个润滑剂的角色，在人们相信央行会履行2%通胀的情况下，居民因为知道未来的物价一定会上涨所以就会倾向与现在就消费，企业会把2%通胀纳入影响战略决策的因素中顺利进行财务决策。换句话说，2%通胀的优点是：
a. 作为润滑剂抚平经济
b. 给居民和企业进行财务决策时提供一个锚，让他们更好进行决策从而整个经济自身少了很多信息不对称性。
日本的超低通胀率一般被认为和它的人口结构有很大关系，因为日本的人口老龄化特别严重，且老人并不热衷买买买，且日本大多数富人都是上了年纪的人，年轻人绝大多数并没有很强的消费能力，导致了物价没有上涨的压力。另一个原因是老人的较高储蓄和企业的较低投资（储蓄对应供给曲线，投资对应需求曲线），使得利率被压低了。安倍上任后一直让日本央行扩大资产负债表规模，也就是往市场不停注入资金，即使是这样日本人民还是不愿意买买买，而通胀率也只是到了1.1%的水平，虽然已经很不容易但是离2%还有不少差距。而届时消费税的增加很有可能把物价又往下压，对一直想提高通胀的日本央行来说不是好事情。
但是归根到底通胀起不来的原因还是没有通胀预期，有了通胀预期人们就会有动力赶紧把钱花了，按照一些观察家的说法，日本作为全球前沿低通胀率实验田，一般的量化宽松已经没有效果了，只能升级到第三阶段，直升机发钞票，届时才能产生通胀率。
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愿景
小组