【新刊速递】《巴尔干与近东研究杂志》Vol 23, No 3, 2021 / 开普饭

期刊简介

《巴尔干与近东研究杂志》(Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies)主要研究前奥斯曼帝国、前苏联以及领土位于巴尔干和大中东地区的国家。2020年影响因子为1.208。

本期编委

【编译】孙唯一丁伟航朱文菡池佳曈

【审校】石稚瑄孙维一缪高意朱文菡

【排版】秦子宁

【美编】游钜家

本期目录

1.欧洲和“新”中东：地缘政治转变和战略选择

Europe and the 'New’ Middle East: Geopolitical shifts and strategic choices

2.俄罗斯和新中东

Russia and the New Middle East

3.中国和新中东

China and New Middle East

4.伊朗与中东的新地缘政治:寻求平衡

The Second Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Change or Continuity?

5.伊朗伊斯兰共和国的第二次继任: 变革还是延续？

The Second Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Change or Continuity?

6.修正主义与土耳其中东政策的再安全化: 一个新古典现实主义的解释

Revisionism and Resecuritization of Turkey's Middle East Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation

7.不可逾越的海湾：将贝内特的分析模型应用于2017年海湾危机

The Unbridgeable Gulf: Applying Bennett’s Model of Analysis to the 2017 Gulf Crisis

欧洲和“新”中东：地缘政治转变和战略选择

【题目】Europe and the 'New’ Middle East: Geopolitical shifts and strategic choices

【作者】Silvia Colombo，意大利国际事务研究所；Eduard Soler i Lechab，西班牙巴塞罗那国际事务中心。

【摘要】自2011年以来，中东地区发生了重大的地缘政治转变：从海湾国家日益增强的影响力、该地区许多国家重心向非洲的转移，以及全球渗透的新动力，到地区分裂和国家内部冲突的扩散，以及更加动荡的联盟和竞争。本文评估了这些转变对欧盟的影响及其塑造或适应新现实的能力。在过去，欧盟对该地区的战略、政策和工具箱往往具有连续性。中东正在经历的变革的强度和其对欧洲本身的影响可能迫使欧盟现在采取行动。欧洲的影响力和信誉岌岌可危。

The Middle East has witnessed major geopolitical shifts since 2011 that range from the growing influence of the Gulf states, the pivot to Africa of many of the region’s countries and the new dynamics of global penetration, to the proliferation of regional cleavages and intra-state conflicts, as well as more volatile alliances and rivalries. This article assesses the implications of those shifts for the European Union and its capacity to shape or adapt to new realities. In the past continuities have tended to prevail in the EU’s strategies, policies and toolbox vis-à-vis the region. The intensity of the transformations the Middle East is going through as well as their impact on Europe itself may oblige the EU to make a move now. Europe’s leverage and credibility are at stake.

【编译】孙唯一

【校对】石稚瑄

【审核】朱文菡

俄罗斯和新中东

【题目】Russia and the New Middle East

【作者】Leonid Issaev，俄罗斯国立高等经济大学社会科学学院。

【摘要】自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯在中东和北非的政策发生了重大变化。莫斯科在该地区的行动开始变得不那么受意识形态的驱动，而是更加务实。然而，阿拉伯之春和乌克兰冲突凸显了俄罗斯方面更为激进的政策，其精髓是对远离其边界的叙利亚武装冲突进行军事干预。在很大程度上，俄罗斯对叙利亚的干预是克里姆林宫解决其内部问题的工具，也是与全球和地区的其他行为体进行谈判的筹码。与此同时，外交政策中公共利益的下降，以及保持中东军事存在的高昂成本，在短期内将迫使克里姆林宫回应国内观众的要求。这个问题的解决将决定俄罗斯在中东和北非地区的未来。它要么是地区冲突中的“诚实中间人”，要么必须满足于扮演华盛顿、北京或其他行动体的“初级伙伴”角色。

Russian policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has undergone significant changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow’s actions in the region have began to acquire a less ideologically driving and more pragmatic character. However, the Arab Spring and conflict in Ukraine have underscored a more aggressive policy on the part of Russia, the quintessence of which was military intervention in an armed conflict far from its borders, in Syria. Largely Russian intervention to Syria was a tool for Kremlin to resolve internal problems, and a bargaining chip in relations with global and regional actors. At the same time the declining in public interest in foreign policy, as well as the high costs of military presence in the Middle East, in the short term will force the Kremlin to respond to demands from domestic audiences. The resolution of this problem will define the future of Russia in the MENA region. It will either be an 'honest broker’ in regional conflicts, or have to be content with the role of 'junior partner’ to Washington, Beijing or other actors.

【编译】孙唯一

【校对】石稚瑄

【审核】朱文菡

中国和新中东

【题目】China and New Middle East

【作者】吴冰冰，北京大学外国语学院。

【摘要】一个新的中东正在形成，这是该地区主要国家行为体之间地缘战略竞争的结果。新中东的权力结构可以概括为一个被削弱和分裂的阿拉伯世界，其面临着更强大的非阿拉伯行为体，这导致了该地区三个重要阵营的出现。主要地区国家行为体和一些次国家武装行为体在叙利亚、伊拉克、也门、黎巴嫩和利比亚等重点国家的地缘战略竞争中发挥着越来越重要的作用。中国在中东有着重要的利益，其政策的关键因素正在形成。中国在中东地区建立了合作机制，并与该地区的一些国家建立了伙伴关系网络。“一带一路”倡议仍然是中国与该地区合作的关键框架。

A New Middle East is emerging, which is shaped by the result of geo-strategic competitions in the region among key state actors. The power structure of the new Middle East can be summarized as a weakened and divided Arab world facing more powerful non-Arab actors, which has conditioned the emergence of three significant camps in the region. Major regional state actors and some sub-state armed actors are playing an increasing role in the geo-strategic competitions in the focal point countries of Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Libya. China has important interests in the Middle East, and key elements of its policy are taking shape. Institutional mechanisms of cooperation have been created and a network of partnerships with some regional countries has been established. The Belt and Road Initiative remains the key framework for China’s cooperation with the region.

【编译】孙唯一

【校对】石稚瑄

【审核】朱文菡

伊朗与中东的新地缘政治:寻求平衡

【题目】Iran and the New Geopolitics of the Middle East: In Search of Equilibrium

【作者】Hassan Ahmadian，德黑兰大学中东和北非研究中心。

【摘要】“后阿拉伯之春”时期，伊朗的地区政策在伊朗内外引发了激烈的争论。伊朗的地区介入虽然受到盟国的欢迎，但遭到了对手和敌人的猛烈批评，因此，对其原因、目的和范围出现了不同的说法。但是，就伊朗的地区影响力不断扩大的问题，双方的意见分歧较小。除此之外，伊朗在该地区的战略计划的演变及其原因也很少被提及。本文旨在阐释2011年后伊朗在中东地区的战略行为和日益重要的作用背后的根本原因，并认为为了维护其地区地位和抵抗威胁到“抵抗轴心”的趋势，伊朗的地区政策从2011年前的“对抗美国的地区秩序”转变为“遏制敌对国家的反现状政策”。这一意义重大的转变得益于伊朗的国际平衡法，即通过国际力量之间相互制衡，以避开威胁。

Iran’s regional policy was subject to heated debates in the post-Arab Spring period both within Iran and beyond. Though welcomed by allies, Iran’s regional involvement was fiercely criticized by its rivals and foes and, as such, different theories emerged on its causes, aims and scope. There was less divergence, however, on the fact that Iran’s regional reach and influence are growing. Beyond this, the evolution of Iran’s strategic planning in the region and its causes were less discussed. This article aims at elaborating the rationale behind Iran’s strategic conduct and growing role in the post-2011 Middle East and argues that in order to preserve its regional position and resist trends threatening the 'axis of resistance,’ Iran’s regional policy shifted from confronting the U.S.-backed regional order of pre-2011 to containing its rivals’ anti-status quo policies afterwards. This meaningful shift is bolstered by Iran’s international 'balancing act,’ whereby it is balancing international powers against each other to fend off threats.

【编译】丁伟航

【校对】石稚瑄

【审核】朱文菡

伊朗伊斯兰共和国的第二次继任: 变革还是延续？

【题目】The Second Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Change or Continuity?

【作者】Mahjoob Zweiri，卡塔尔大学海湾研究中心；Aljohara AlObaidan，卡塔尔大学海湾研究中心。

【摘要】最高领袖在决定伊朗的政治生活方面发挥着重要作用。对这一角色的分析是研究伊朗国内政治和外交政策不可或缺的一部分。伴随着对现任最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊健康状况每况愈下的猜测，继任问题变得特别重要，并受到学界的广泛关注。这些研究的关注点集中在该关键职位潜在候选人的性格上。本文不同于主流研究，分析了指导伊朗最高领袖选定过程的结构性因素。对伊朗两任最高领袖阿亚图拉·霍梅尼和阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊选定过程中的历史背景的研究，可以让我们更全面地了解下一任最高领袖的立场和作用。此前领袖选定的相似之处，如类似的外部压力和国内影响，突显了将影响未来进程的结构性因素。本文认为，政治体制结构和国家安全机构是选定伊朗未来领袖的主要决定因素。

The Supreme Leader has a significant role in determining political life in Iran. The analysis of this role is an integral part of studying Iranian domestic politics and foreign policy. The succession issue has been of particular importance and subject to numerous academic endeavours after speculations of current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s failing health. The focus of these studies centres on the personalities of the potential candidates for this eminent position. This paper departs from mainstream research and analyzes the structural factors that guide the process of choosing the Supreme Leader in Iran. The study of the historical context in the designation process of Iran’s two Supreme Leaders, Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei, provides a more comprehensive understanding of the position and role of the next Supreme Leader. The similarities between the selection of the previous Leaders, such as similar external pressures and domestic influences, highlight structural elements that will affect the forthcoming process. This paper identifies the structure of the political system and the national security apparatus as the major determinants in selecting the future Leader in Iran.

【编译】朱文菡

【校对】孙唯一

【审核】丁伟航

修正主义与土耳其中东政策的再安全化: 一个新古典现实主义的解释

【题目】Revisionism and Resecuritization of Turkey's Middle East Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation

【作者】Şaban Kardaş，土耳其TOBB 经济技术大学国际关系系。

【摘要】近年来，土耳其的中东政策出现了现实主义转向。本文通过一个关键案例来探讨这一现象，即土耳其放弃了与伊拉克和叙利亚的库尔德修正主义者接触的政策，倾向于采取包括军事手段在内的胁迫性做法。为了解释这一现实主义转向的驱动因素，本文运用了结合区域和国内变量的新古典现实主义框架。这一框架追溯了地区秩序的分裂与新安全文化和国内权力集团的兴起如何支持了土耳其中东政策的逆转。本文最后讨论了这一新阶段的政策影响。

Turkey's Middle East policy has taken a realist turn in recent years. This article explores this phenomenon in a critical case, i.e., Turkey's abandonment of a policy of engagement vis-à-vis the Kurdish revisionist actors in Iraq and Syria, and tilt towards a coercive approach including military posturing. In order to explain the drivers of this realist turn, it utilizes a neo-classical realist framework that combines regional and domestic variables. It traces how the fragmentation of the regional order, combined with the rise of new security culture and power bloc domestically, undergirded the reversal in Ankara's Middle East policy. It concludes with a discussion on the policy implications of this new phase.

【编译】朱文菡

【校对】池佳曈

【审核】丁伟航

不可逾越的海湾：将贝内特的分析模型应用于2017年海湾危机

【题目】The Unbridgeable Gulf: Applying Bennett’s Model of Analysis to the 2017 Gulf Crisis

【作者】Majed Mohammed Hassan Al-Ansari，卡塔尔国际研究院院长。

【摘要】自1981年海湾合作委员会（GCC）成立以来，海湾国家卷入数次冲突，但卡塔尔与以沙特阿拉伯为首的自称“四方”的国家（沙特阿拉伯，阿拉伯联合酋长国，巴林和埃及）之间最近发生的危机是几十年来海湾国家中最严重的一次内部冲突。本文旨在通过对卡塔尔近四年的封锁分析海湾内部冲突的性质、原因和未来。本文采用了威廉·贝内特（William Bennett）开发的分析模型，以评估阿拉伯海湾地区的国家间冲突。贝内特分析模型将对卡塔尔的封锁解释为沙特阿拉伯霸权野心的产物，政治冲突是由资源供求的长期不平衡引起的，因而政治冲突是无法解决的，区域霸权是使卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯之间的冲突永久存在的决定性政治根源。2021年1月签署的埃尔奥拉协议（Al-Ula Agreement）并未完全解决争夺霸权的根源，只是卡塔尔与沙特阿拉伯之间冲突的临时解决方案。

While the Gulf States have been involved in several conflicts since the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981, the recent crisis between Qatar and the self-proclaimed, Saudi-led 'Quartet’ nations (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt) has been the most severe internal conflict among the Gulf States for decades. The aim of this paper is to provide an in-depth analysis of the nature, causes, and future of the intra-Gulf conflict through the lens of the nearly four-year blockade of Qatar. The paper appropriates a model of analysis developed by William Bennett in order to assess inter-state conflict in the Arabian Gulf region. Using Bennett’s model, this paper explains how the blockade of Qatar is a product of Saudi Arabia’s hegemonic ambitions. As Bennett’s model argues that political conflicts result from the perpetual imbalance of supply and demand of resources, thus proving that political conflicts are insoluble, regional hegemony is identified as the defining political resource perpetuating conflict between Qatar and Saudi Arabia. As the Al-Ula agreement signed in January 2021 did not fully resolve the roots of this fight for hegemony, this is only a temporary solution to the conflict between Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

【编译】池佳曈

【校对】缪高意

【审核】朱文菡

【新刊速递】《巴尔干与近东研究杂志》Vol 23, No 3, 2021

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