经济学人财经||外汇储备经理与美元的虐恋
1导读
感谢思维导图作者Mayof, 女，大三, catti三级备考中, 比较文学考研备考中2听力|精读|翻译|词组
The diversification illusion投资多元化假象Reserve managers are locked in an unhealthy relationship with the dollar外汇储备经理与美元的虐恋James M. CAIN’s novel “The Postman Always Rings Twice” portrays a violent love affair between Frank Chambers, a drifter, and Cora Papadakis, a former beauty queen now married to a man she despises. Their romance is doomed from the beginning. Every attempt to find happiness fails. Any attempt at being apart is equally hopeless. “Why did you have to come back?” she hisses after one break-up. “I had to, that’s all,” he replies.詹姆斯·麦·凯恩的小说《邮差总按两次铃》描述了一段惨烈的婚外情，（主角是）流浪汉弗兰克·坎波耳和已婚但蔑视自己丈夫的往届选美冠军科拉·帕帕扎基斯。这段故事从一开始就已注定，每一次追寻幸福的尝试都以失败告终，而任何一次想要分开的尝试也都是徒劳。“你为什么要回来？”在一次分手后，她小声说。“我必须这么做”,他答到。The story comes to mind when contemplating the fate of the managers of the world’s $11trn-worth of foreign-exchange reserves. This is not to say they are obsessives wracked with guilt and paranoia (though a few might be). But rather that, like Frank and Cora, it has probably occurred to them that their dominant relationship, which is with the dollar, may not be entirely good for them.当考虑到全球11万亿外汇储备经理人的命运时，我们总能想到这个故事。这并不是说他们陷入了严重的内疚和偏执（可能一些人确实是这样），而是说就像弗兰克和科拉，可能他们突然意识到，与美元形成的主导关系（相对于其他货币），可能对他们来说并非完全有利。The latest figures from the IMF show that the share of dollars in global reserves fell to 62% at the end of last year. Reserve managers seem to be for a cooler, less intense affair with the dollar. But eventually, they will find that it is hard to break free. That is not so much because the alternatives to the dollar have flaws (though they do); rather, it is because the pain of a weaker dollar will become too much to bear.国际货币基金组织的最新数据显示，去年年底美元在全球储备金中所占的份额下降到了62%。外汇储备经理们似乎倾向于与美元保持一种更冷静、不那么紧密的关系。但最终，他们会发现很难摆脱美元。主要原因倒不是美元的替代品有缺陷（尽管确实存在缺陷），而是美元走弱带来的痛楚将变得难以承受。The dollar is the closest thing to a world currency. Commodities that are traded globally are quoted in dollars. So are other currencies. A lot of cross-border trade is invoiced and settled in dollars, too. Dollars are the unit by which the world of finance keeps score. So there is logic to countries keeping stores of them in reserve. It is generally dollars that you need in an emergency.美元是最近乎于世界货币的币种。全球交易的大宗商品都以美元计价,所有其他货币也是如此。许多跨境贸易也是用美元来开发票、结算。金融世界使用美元作为其记账单位。因此，各国进行美元储备合乎逻辑。在紧急情况下，你需要的通常是美元。But money is also a store of value. There is no guarantee that the dollar will hold its value better than other currencies. So like other portfolio managers, reserve-holders seek to diversify. That means fewer dollars.但货币也是一种价值储存工具。没人能保证美元会比其他货币更保值。因此，与其他组合投资经理一样，外汇储备经理也在寻求投资多元化。这意味着更少的美元储备。There are other reasons for breaking free of the greenback. Its global role gives America the means to impose financial sanctions to great effect. Its use of such powers has steadily grown. In response, Russia has slashed the share of dollars in its currency reserves. It is not hard to imagine that some other countries have weighed the odds of at some stage being caught in a dispute with America.还有一些其他摆脱美元的原因。美元的全球角色让美国能够实施有巨大影响的金融制裁，这样的权利利用还在持续增加。作为回应，俄罗斯大幅削减了美元在其外汇储备中的份额。不难想象，在某些阶段其他一些国家也曾权衡过陷入美国争端的可能性。Changes in the market value of currencies can mask underlying shifts in the mix of assets within reserves. For instance, if the euro falls sharply against the dollar, its share in reserves would also fall without any change in the stock of assets held. Steven Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, applies a constant exchange rate to the IMF data to adjust for this valuation effect. What emerges is a clearer long-term trend downwards in dollar holdings and a sharp sell-off last year (see chart). What kept the dollar strong was the strength of private-sector purchases.货币市场价值的改变能够掩盖在外汇储备中资产组合的根本变化。例如，如果欧元兑美元急剧下跌，那么即便外汇储备所持有的资产存量没有任何改变，其欧元的份额也会下降。渣打银行的史蒂文·英格兰德（Steven Englander）对国际货币基金组织的数据采用固定汇率以应对这种价值影响。（在该模式下）美元持有量长期下降的趋势和去年的大幅抛售就更为明显（见图表）。而保持美元强劲的主要是来自私人投资者的购买。Reserve managers appear to be countercyclical investors, selling when others are buying. This is rather cheering. The dollar looks overvalued on many benchmarks. And if anyone can take a long-term view, it ought to be reserve managers. Even so, Mr Englander suspects that some of them are waiting for signs of dollar weakness before selling.外汇储备经理似乎是反周期的投资者，即在别人购入时他们卖出。这就很有意思了。美元在许多标准中都被高估。如果说（市场上）谁能高瞻远瞩，那必然应该是外汇储备经理。即使这样，Englande先生觉得有些储备经理仍在等待美元走弱信号以卖出。By then it may be too late. Once private-sector demand for dollars wanes, the combination of this downward pressure and selling by reserve managers might mean that the dollar has to fall a long way to balance supply and demand. That would be a big headache for reserve managers. In one regard they are not like other portfolio managers. They are also charged with keeping their own currency at a competitive level to support exports.（然而等到信号出现再进行抛售）可能为时过晚。一旦私人投资者对美元的需求减弱，造成的下行压力和外汇储备经理抛售美元的双重打击，意味着美元要大幅下跌才能达成供需平衡。这会让外汇储备经理非常头疼。从某种角度来说，他们不像其他的投资组合经理，因为他们还需负责保持本国货币竞争力以支持出口。Reserve managers who start off wanting to sell dollars often end up buying them back when they see competitiveness is at risk, says Mr Englander. Their attempts to diversify by, say, selling those dollars for euros is doomed to fail. It is hard to induce private-sector investors to buy dollars for euros when they, too, are trying to diversify away from them. The outcome, says Mr Englander, is that both dollar and non-dollar reserves increase, with the dollar share not much changed.Englander先生表示，那些开始想要抛售美元的外汇储备经理们往往会在看到本国出口竞争力受到威胁时又购回美元。他们这种抛售美元换取欧元来实现外汇储备多样性的尝试注定失败。当私人投资者也尝试进行多元化投资摆脱美元时，就很难诱导他们为了欧元再来购买美元。结果就是美元和其他货币的外汇储备总量增加，而美元份额变化不多。In Cain’s novel, the star-crossed lovers are joined by a dark passion and by complicity in a murder. What tethers reserve managers to the dollar is not quite as sinister. For a while they can achieve a little distance: if they want to get out of dollars, they can do so while everyone else is trying to get into them. But if the dollar falls hard enough, they will be buyers. Ask a reserve manager, then, why he ever went back, and he may tell you: “I had to, that’s all.”在Cain的小说中，这对命途多舛的恋人因不可告人的感情和谋杀案中的共犯关系而紧密联系在一起。而外汇储备经理们和美元紧紧拴在一起的原因并没那么罪恶。他们可以暂时达成一点成就：如果他们想要摆脱美元，就可以在其他人试图购买美元时选择卖出美元。但是如果美元贬值的很多，外汇储备经理们又会成为买家。当询问一位外汇储备经理为何又购回美元时，他可能会回答你：“我必须这么做”。翻译组：Vivian，女，金融硕士，爱潜水爱运动Ashley，女，金融硕士，爱宠物爱英语爱旅游爱TENana，女，南开世界经济硕士，努力学习经济学和英语中Gloria，女，经济学在读，爱健身爱电影爱古怪新奇的事物May ，男， 跨界财经、法律、政治，热恋越野跑，迷恋经济学人校核组：Jessie Lulu, 金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯3观点|评论|思考本期评论员Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝这篇文章探讨了reserve manager在构建外汇储备投资组合时遇到的约束条件，说全世界央行的reserve manager既要diversify他们的外储组合，又要面对在diversify的过程中把美元抛出导致本币升值的困境，所以经常遇到的情况是reserve manager diversify到一半又要买回美元。导致这一困境的原因是，reserve manager和一般的fund manager不一样，他们的主要职责是维持汇率稳定和适量外汇储备以达到汇率内外部平衡，而不是追求其投资组合收益率最大化。在做两者的权衡过程中，一国往往会权衡其得失来作判断。例如一国的出口占其国民经济很大一部分且有大量外汇储备余额，那么它就会倾向于大量买入美国资产而不太计较其是否多样化；但如果一国出口占经济比重较小且有外债偿还压力的话，那么它就倾向与不太在意汇率给经济带来的影响，而更优先考虑外储价值的缩减会引发对于其偿债能力的担忧，从而倾向多样化甚至最大化其外储价值。事实是，做reserve manager有多个目标要达到，而不像一般portfolio manager只要最大化价值就可以了，所以外储投资更多在于在多个约束条件下达到某种平衡。比如，管理外汇储备最重要要考虑的地方在于它对于国内货币供给和汇率的影响。央行的资产负债表上资产端对应了国内资产和国外资产，国外资产也就是外汇储备，负债端对应了货币供给。央行资产负债表：资产负债国内资产国外资产：外汇储备货币供给所以外汇储备的增加会增加货币供给，进而在利率市场上使利率下降，进而在汇率市场上让本币贬值（开放经济下）。假使有一两年发生这样的情况，一国的出口出奇得好，导致外汇储备暴增，这部分暴增甚至不能用国内资产在央行资产负债表上的减少来冲销掉，导致该国会经历输入性通货膨胀。再比如，管理外汇储备除了要考虑对本国的内部环境的影响外，还要考虑对他国外部环境的影响。一国的贸易盈余对应的是另一个国家的贸易赤字。一国的经常项目赤字意味着该国背负了债务需要将来以贸易盈余的形式偿还。按古典经济学理论来说，贸易盈余国的外储增加导致利率下降从而汇率贬值，会鼓励其出口，对应的另一国就有升值压力抑制其出口，但是这是不考虑其他因素的条件下才会出现的结果，现实中一国的汇率受很多其他因素影响，比如一国持续进行冲销操作使其货币有出口优势，那么对应的另一国就处于长年贸易赤字的位置上，这对于该国的出口部门是个很大的打击，而这会导致该国推行报复性的贸易政策。所以一国的外汇管理不止需要考虑自己内部环境，还要考虑外部环境。而外储管理的过程中就应当综合考虑外储对于经济中各个参与者的影响来进行管理，和央行在制定货币政策过程中要受到三元悖论的限制但尽可能使其货币政策兼顾三方面带来的影响十分类似，这意味着reserve manager要兼顾多方面的情况下做出尽可能好的决策。4愿景打造独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习小组