TE||Aussie rules
1
导读
澳大利亚人口少，为什么不敢放开移民？
2
听力|精读|翻译|词组
Aussie rules
澳式规则
英文部分选自经济学人Leaders版块
Aussie rules
澳式规则
What the world can learn from Australia
全世界可以从澳大利亚学到什么
It is perhaps the most successful rich economy
它可能是最成功的发达经济体
What is the biggest problem facing America? Or Japan? Or Britain? Or France? Opinions vary, naturally, but some worries crop up again and again. Those of a materialist bent point to decades of slow growth in median incomes, which has bred disillusion and anger among working people. Fiscal hawks decry huge public debts, destined to grow even vaster as ageing populations rack up ever bigger bills for health care and pensions. Then there is immigration, which has prompted a furious populist backlash in the United States and all over Europe. That hints at what, for many, is the most alarming trend of all: the lack of any semblance of a political consensus about how to handle these swelling crises.
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当下，美日英法面临的最大问题是什么？人们的观点自然会有所不同，但有些担忧却一再出现。那些唯物主义者指出，数十年来，中位数收入增长缓慢，这使得劳动人民梦想破灭进而变得愤怒。财政部门的鹰派谴责巨额公共债务，随着人口的老龄化，医疗保健和养老金支付的账单越来越多，这些债务注定会越来越大。此外还有移民问题，这在美国和整个欧洲都引起了激烈的民粹主义反弹。对许多人来说，最令人震惊的问题却是：在如何处理这些日益加剧的危机方面，政治上甚至连表面上的一致都无法达成。
注：understanding-populism-ideology-backlash:
https://blog.oup.com/2016/12/understanding-populism-ideology-backlash/
Rising incomes, low public debt, an affordable welfare state, popular support for mass immigration and a broad consensus on the policies underpinning these things—that is a distant dream in most rich countries. Many Western politicians could scarcely imagine a place that combined them all. Happily, they do not have to, because such a country already exists: Australia .
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收入增加、公共债务降低、一个负担得起福利的国家、大众对大规模移民的支持以及对支持这些事情的政策达成广泛共识——这些在大多数富裕国家都是一个遥远的梦想。许多西方政治家们几乎无法想象有一个地方可以将它们通通结合在一起。幸运的是，他们不必这样做，因为这样的国家已经存在了：澳大利亚。
Perhaps because it is far away from everywhere, or has only 25m inhabitants, or is seen mainly as a habitat for cuddly marsupials, it attracts relatively little attention. But its economy is arguably the most successful in the rich world. It has been growing for 27 years without a recession—a record for a developed country. Its cumulative growth over that period is almost three times what Germany has managed. The median income has risen four times faster than in America. Public debt, at 41% of gdp, is less than half Britain’s.
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也许是因为离哪都远，也许是因为只有2500万居民，也许是主要被当作可爱袋鼠的栖息地，其几乎得不到关注。但它的经济可以说是发达国家中最成功的。澳大利亚经济已连续增长27年且没有衰退，创下了发达国家的记录。在此期间的累计增长量几乎是德国的三倍。中位数收入的增长速度是美国的四倍。政府债务占GDP的41%，比英国的一半还少。
《澳大利亚经济连续第27年无衰退增长》
https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2018-06-06/doc-ihcqccip1465582.shtml
Luck has had a hand in these feats, to be sure. Australia is blessed with lots of iron ore and natural gas, and is relatively close to China, which hoovers up such things. But sound policymaking has helped, too. After the last recession, in 1991, the government of the day reformed the health-care and pensions systems, requiring the middle class to pay more of its own way. The result is that Australia’s government spends just half the oecd average on pensions as a share of gdp—and the gap will only widen in the years ahead.
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当然，这些成绩离不开运气。澳大利亚拥有丰富的铁矿石和天然气资源，而且与需求大户中国相对较近。但合理的政策制定也令其如虎添翼。上一次衰退发生在1991年，当时的政府改革了医疗保健和养老金制度，要求中产阶级支付更多费用。其结果是，澳大利亚政府在养老金方面的支出仅为经合组织成员国养老金在GDP占比平均水平的一半，而这一差距在未来几年只会进一步拉大。
Even more remarkable is Australia’s enthusiasm for immigration. Some 29% of its inhabitants were born in another country—twice the proportion in the United States. Half of Australians are either immigrants themselves or children of immigrants. And the biggest source of immigrants is Asia, which is fast changing the country’s racial mix. Compare that with America or Britain or Italy, where far smaller inflows have generated hostility among a big portion of the electorate—or Japan, where allowing foreigners to settle in any numbers is a political taboo. In Australia both main parties argue that admitting lots of skilled migrants is essential to the health of the economy.
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更尤为值得关注的是澳大利亚对于移民的热情。其大约29%的居民出生于其他国家——是美国的两倍。一半的澳大利亚人要么是自己移民要么是移民的第二代。移民最大的来源地是亚洲，这正快速改变着这个国家的种族构成。相比之下，在美国或者英国或意大利，远少得多的移民流入量却已引起大部分选民的敌意；而在日本，无论允许多少移民迁入都是一个政治禁忌。但在澳大利亚，两个主要党派都主张允许技术移民进入，这对健康的经济是尤为重要的。
These achievements are not without their flaws. The private investment funds through which Australians are obliged to save for their retirement have been charging excessive fees, leaving pensioners poorer than they should be. And as welcoming as Australia is to immigrants arriving through normal channels, it treats those who try to come by boat without the proper paperwork with unnecessary severity, packing them off to remote islands in the Pacific where even legitimate refugees have been left to rot for years.
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这些成就也并非没有缺陷。那些澳大利亚人被迫存在私人投资基金中的退休金被收取了过高的费用，而原本人们可以领取更多退休金。而且尽管澳大利亚欢迎通过正常渠道进入的移民，它对待那些试图偷渡过来的人却有着不必要的严厉，把他们打发到遥远的太平洋的岛屿上，在那里即便是合法的难民也无人问津，自生自灭。
Moreover, there are reforms that Australia should be undertaking and is not. Aboriginal Australians suffer from enormous disadvantages, which a succession of governments has barely dented. Global warming is clearly causing grave damage—droughts have become more frequent and more severe, among other dismal consequences—yet Australia has done almost nothing to curb its emissions of greenhouse gases.
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此外，澳大利亚没有做到本该做的一些改革。澳大利亚原住民遭受着巨大的损害，而历届政府却鲜有作为。全球变暖很显然造成巨大损害，以及其他令人沮丧的后果，比如气候干旱已经变得更加频繁和严峻，而澳大利亚几乎没有采取任何措施来限制其温室气体的排放。
Nonetheless, Australia’s example shows that reforms considered impossible elsewhere are perfectly achievable. Democrats in America assail most proposals to restrain the rising costs of public pensions or health care as tantamount to throwing grannies off a cliff; in Australia it was the left that pioneered such policies. The Labor Party sold obligatory private pensions to unions as an increase in benefits, since it is technically employers who are required to make regular payments into investment funds on their workers’ behalf. The party also made sure to retain a basic public pension, which is paid only to those who have not managed to build up adequate personal savings.
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但是，澳大利亚的例子表明，其他地区看似无法实现的改革在此却是能够完美实现的。美国民主党人士抨击了大多数限制公共养老金或医疗保健费用上涨的提议，认为这无异于“将奶奶推下悬崖”，而在澳大利亚正是左派倡导这些政策。为了增加福利，工党向工会出售强制性的私人养老金，因为从技术上讲，雇主为了其雇员的利益需要定期向投资基金付款。执政党还必须保留基本的公共养老金，以保障那些没有积累足够个人储蓄的个人。
By the same token, it is quite possible to maintain popular support for mass immigration, even from culturally dissimilar places. But it is essential to give voters the sense that their borders are properly policed and that there is no free-for-all (see next leader). Again, bipartisanship is important. It was a right-wing government that first allowed immigration from Asia on a big scale, admitting lots of refugees from Vietnam in the 1970s.
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出于同样的原因，即使来自不同文化背景的地方，维持民众对大规模移民的支持也是完全有可能的。但是，让选民感受到边境线得到了适当的管理，并不是任何人都可以随意进入也是十分有必要的。此外，两党合作同样非常重要。上世纪70年代，右翼政府首次允许大批亚洲移民入境，接纳了大量越南难民。
Australia’s political system rewards centrism. All eligible citizens must vote, by law, and those who might not bother to turn out otherwise tend to plump for mainstream parties. There is no need to rally supporters to the polls by pandering to their prejudices. Since everyone has to show up, politicians focus instead on winning over the wavering middle. The system of preferential voting, whereby Australians rank candidates in order of choice, rather than picking just one, also exerts a moderating influence.
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澳大利亚的政治制度促进了温和派发展。所有合法公民必须依法投票，嫌麻烦的人经常直接为主流党派投票，所以没有必要为了拉拢部分选民而特意去迎合他们的偏见。因为每位公民都必须到场，所以政客更关注于赢得摇摆不定公民的选票。澳大利亚的选举制度称为优先顺序投票制，即所有候选人按选择顺序排位，而不是只选择一位。这种制度也促进了温和派发展。
The irony is that, just as the benefits of this set-up are becoming so obvious, Australians appear to be growing disenchanted with it. Voters express growing doubts about the effectiveness of government. It has not cost the two main parties many seats, thanks to the electoral system, but their vote-share has fallen by 20 percentage points since the 1980s. Politicians, conscious of voters’ disgruntlement, have also become increasingly febrile. They are constantly turfing out prime ministers, in the hope that a new face will boost their party’s standing with the electorate. Some in the ruling Liberal Party, although not the current prime minister, have begun to call for a reduction in immigration, undermining decades of consensus. Ambitious reforms have become rare. The rest of the world could learn a lot from Australia—and Australians could do with a refresher course, too.
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讽刺的是，虽然这种制度的好处日益显著，但澳大利亚人似乎对此越来越不抱希望,对政府效率的质疑也与日俱增。还好目前的选举制度并没有使得两大主要党派损失太多席位。但是他们的选票占比自20世纪80年代以来已经下降了个20个百分点。意识到选民的不满，政客们也变得更加狂热。他们频繁地撤换总理，寄希望于新的面孔能加强他们所在党派与选民的凝聚力。执政党自由党中有一些人，虽然还不是现任总理，却已经开始呼吁减少移民，此举破坏了几十年来的共识。雄心勃勃的改革已经变得罕见。其他国家可以借鉴澳大利亚的模式，而澳大利亚人也可以走一条全新的道路。
知识点总结
1、Aussie rules: Australian rules 在其风行地区俗称Aussie rules 或 footy），又称澳大利亚式足球，在中国被更多译为澳大利亚式橄榄球或澳式橄榄球，是一种源自于澳大利亚维多利亚州墨尔本地区的橄榄球类运动。其他球赛相较，最大的特色是速度快以及球的移动自由度大，以及随意主踢任意球。
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_rules_football
2、crop up：(指意外地)发生、出现
3、Bent: interest, sb. of a materialist bent：崇尚物质主义的人
4、hawks：鹰派,以形容主张采取强势外交手段或积极军事扩张的人士、团体或势力。另一解释为以强硬态度或手段维护国家主义民族主义利益的个人、团体或势力。鹰派的反义词为“鸽派(doves)”
5、decry：condemn 公开谴责，强烈批评 decry sb/sth (as sth)
6、rack up：（商业上）大量获得（利润），遭受(严重损失)，热销；（体育中）获胜，得分
7、semblance ：表象；假象；外观；外貌。 a / some semblance of sth：稍微相似，有点类似
8、welfare state：福利制度
9、cuddly marsupials：令人想要拥抱的柔软的树袋熊
10、cumulative growth：累计增长
11、hoovers up：获得大量的
12、OCED: Office of Comprehensive Employment Development：全面职业开发办公室
13、paperwork：文书工作，全部文件
14、Aboriginal：澳大利亚土著
15、a succession of governments：历届政府
16、as tantamount to：和 一样、无异于
17、dismal 凄凉的、惨淡的、阴沉的；不熟练的，差劲的。
18、By the same token：出于同样的原因
19、Australian Labor Party（澳大利亚工党，缩写为ALP）是澳大利亚历史最悠久的社会民主主义政党，政治立场中间偏左。工党亦是澳大利亚两大政党之一，其长期竞争对手是中间偏右的保守派自由党-国家党联盟。工党建党于1891年，为进步联盟成员。
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Labor_Party
20、free-for-all：秩序混乱
centrism：中间派的政策、温和主义
21、plump for：谨慎挑选
22、pandering to ：迎合、奉承
23、disenchanted with：不再抱有幻想
24、turfing out：驱逐，赶出
25、kill the goose that lays the golden eggs 竭泽而渔，杀鸡取卵
26、the electoral system：选举制度
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?search=+the+electoral+system&title=Special%3ASearch&profile=default&fulltext=1
27、right-wing government：右翼政府，其认为某些社会秩序和等级制度是不可避免的，自然的，正常的或可取的，通常在自然法，经济学或传统的基础上支持这一立场，右翼一词通常可以指“政党或制度的保守派或反动派”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?search=right-wing+government&title=Special%3ASearch&profile=default&fulltext=1
翻译组：
Aileen，女，研究僧，经济学人粉丝
Samantha，女，不吃米饭，邓伦未婚妻
Wesley，男，自由职业，经济学人铁粉
Cyrus，男， 口译民工，经济学人爱好者
Doris，女，法律学习者，经济学人爱好者
Rena，女，国际学校老师，经济学人爱好者
Yao，英专本科生，准上外小硕，只读不背的经济学人爱好者
校核组：
Neil, 男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉
VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者
知识点收集组：
sun小河，研究生，学习英语，TE爱好者
Rainy，出国党，国际关系专业，TE爱好者
Abigail,女，英专学生党，经济学人爱好者
Kathy，英专，CATTI、雅思备考，外刊爱好者
3
观点|评论|思考
本次观点由Cyrus独家奉献
Cyrus，男， 口译民工，经济学人爱好者
在澳大利亚，大概每一分四十四秒就有一个婴儿出生，每五十三秒就有一个人移居到此。得益于人口的快速增长和新移民的不断加入，使得澳大利亚的经济自打上世九十年代以来以每年3%的速度快速成长。有的人说这是因为澳洲施行了正确的经济策略，也有人说这得益于活跃的商品经济周期，甚至还有的人说澳洲的长期发展离不开中国的崛起。在这一切表象的背后，推动澳洲经济持久不衰的最大动力其实是不断壮大的移民队伍。3％的年成长率减去1.4%的人口年增长率后，其实澳洲每年的人均增长也就1.6%，因此移民人口的贡献不可或缺。
技术移民弥补了澳洲各行各业人才的空缺，而早期的传统移民（包括难民）也为澳洲人口增长做出了贡献，既保证了充足的劳动力，又培养了雄厚的消费人群。即便如此，前两届政府都曾大力主张削减移民数量。有人抱怨移民入侵夺走了本地人的工作机会，加重了交通压力。而且随着中国和印度成为澳洲两个最重要的移民来源国，澳洲本地房价不断上涨，亚洲移民因此受到揶揄。
随着欧洲难民危机不断失控和美国民粹总统特朗普的上台，欧美民族主义不断抬头，移民问题不断被政治化，内部社会撕裂严重，极大浪费了欧美本地的社会资源。在这个问题上，澳大利亚则显得略胜一筹。即便偶尔有某些极端政客针对移民发出了不当言论，但是人们都清楚解决当地民生社会问题的唯一途径是政府应该进行合理的规划，从而让整个社会的运作更加高效，驱散移民并不符合澳洲这个移民之地的核心价值，毕竟将近半数澳洲人口都是在海外出生的（或者父母至少有一方是在海外出生）。
纵然澳洲在全民医疗，平均工资水平以及政府债务各方面都值得各国学习借鉴，但是其处理移民问题的态度及方式仍是本地社会长久发展的巨大基石。毕竟一个国家要发展，内部社会并无他选，只能团结。
衍生阅读1：
Critics should remember that immigration drives Australia's success
https://www.theage.com.au/national/critics-should-remember-that-immigration-drives-australia-s-success-20180226-p4z1ue.html
衍生阅读2:
Australia's Economic Miracle Depends On Immigration. So Why Curb It?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2017/10/26/australias-economic-miracle-depends-on-immigration-so-why-curb-it/#1afb0dac6141
4
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