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股市暴跌
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本文英文部分选自经济学人Finance and economics版块
After a long period of calm,investors get a shock.
投资者在期冷静之后再次感到震惊。
Every good horror-film director knows the secret of the “jump scare”. Just when the hero or heroine feels safe, the monster appears from nowhere to startle them. The latest stock market shock could have been directed by Alfred Hitchcock. The sharp falls that took place on February 2nd and 5th followed a long period where the only direction for share prices appeared to be upwards.
每个优秀的恐怖电影导演都知道在电影中运用“猛然一吓”这一吓人手法。 当英雄人物感到安全时，怪物会从不知何处冒出来吓他们一跳。 最新的股市震荡可能是由阿尔弗雷德·希区柯克（享誉世界的英国著名导演，被誉为“悬念大师”）一手导演的。在很长一段时间里都一路向上的股价之后的，是在2月2日和5日的急转直下。
In fact the American market had risen so far, so fast that the decline only took share prices back to where they were at the start of the year (see chart). And although a 1,175-point fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on February 5th was the biggest ever in absolute terms, it was still smallish beer in proportionate terms, at just 4.6%. The 508-point fall in the Dow in October 1987 knocked nearly 23% off the market.
事实上，美国股市迄今为止上涨如此之快，以至于股市下跌只会将股价回到年初的水平（见图表）。 虽然道琼斯工业平均指数在2月5日下跌1175点是有史以来的最大绝对值，但按比例计算的话，它仍然不值一提，仅为4.6％。 1987年10月，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌508点，跌近23％。
small bear：something of small importance
Still, surprise rippled round the world. Between January 29th and early trading on February 7th, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped by 7.5%. The FTSE 100 index fell by 8.2% from its record high, set in January. A late recovery on February 6th, in which the Dow rebounded by 2.3% (or 567 points), restored some calm.
尽管如此，“震惊”还是波及全球。1月29日至2月7日早盘，MSCI新兴市场指数下跌7.5％。 富时100指数从1月份的创纪录高位下跌8.2％。 2月6日，道琼斯指数反弹2.3％（或567点），一定程度上恢复了平静。
What explains the sudden turmoil? Perhaps investors had been used to good news for so long that they had become complacent. In a recent survey investors reported their highest exposure to equities in two years and their lowest holdings of cash in five. Another sign of potential complacency was the unwillingness of investors to pay for insurance against a market decline, something that showed up in the volatility, or Vix index. Funds that bet on the continuation of low volatility lost heavily (see box on next page).
是什么因素造成股市的突然动荡呢？也许是因为投资者早已习惯了好消息，他们已经变得自满。最近的一项调查报告了投资者两年以来最高的风险敞口以及五年以来最低的现金持有量。潜在自满情绪的另一个迹象是，投资者不愿意为市场下跌购买保险，这在波动率或Vix指数中显示出来。并且，押注于持续低波动性的基金严重亏损（见下一页的方框）。
Vix指数（Volatility Index）：波动率指数，即是恐慌指数。
The wobble may also reflect a decision by investors to rethink the economic and financial outlook. Ever since 2009 central banks have been highly supportive of financial markets through low interest rates and quantitative easing (bond purchases with newly created money). There was much talk of an era of“secular stagnation”, in which growth, inflation and interest rates would stay permanently low.
这次波动可能也正反映了投资者打算重新考虑经济发展前景的决定。从2009年以来，中央银行一直采取的是低息和“量化宽松”（央行通过发行钞票购买债券）政策来大力促进金融市场的发展。有很多关于经济步入了一个所谓“长期停滞”的时代的言论，其增长率、通货膨胀率以及利息率在长期内都保持在低位。
But the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are now pushing up interest rates, and the European Central Bank is cutting its bond purchases. Future central-bank policy seems much less certain. A pickup in global economic growth may naturally lead to fears of higher inflation. The World Bank warned last month that financial markets could be vulnerable on this front.
但是，美联储和英格兰银行正推行加息政策，欧洲中央银行在慢慢减少债券的购买量。央行未来的政策似乎充满了更多的不确定性。全球经济的增长可能自然而然将引起高通胀的恐慌。上个月世界银行发出警告称，当前的资本市场在这方面恐怕十分脆弱。
Bond yields have been moving higher since the autumn; the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond, 2.05% on September 8th, reached 2.84% on February 2nd. On that day American employment numbers were released, showing that the annual rate of wage growth had climbed to 2.9%. That suggested inflation may be about to move higher. Furthermore, the recent taxcutting package means that the federal deficit may be over $1trn in the year ending September 2019, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan group. Making such a largamount of bonds attractive to buyers might require higher yields.
自秋季以来，债券收益率就保持节节攀升的态势。十年期债券的收益率在2017年9月8日为2.05%，直到今年2月2日，其达到2.84%。那天美国的就业数据也同时发布，工资年增长率已经攀升到2.9%。这表明通胀率可能即将上升。而且，据两党派尽责联邦预算委员会表示，最近的一揽子减税政策意味着到2019年9月底联邦财政赤字或将逾一万亿美元。发行数量如此庞大同时还要求对投资者有十足吸引力的债券恐怕需要向投资者承诺更高的收益率。
Higher bond yields are a challenge to the markets in a couple of ways. First, by raising the cost of borrowing for companies and consumers, they may slow economic growth. Second, American equity valuations are very high. The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (which averages profits over ten years) is 33.4, compared with the historical average of 16.8. Equity bulls have justified high stock valuations on the ground that the returns on government bonds, the main alternative asset class, have been so low; higher yields weaken that argument.
就以下两方面而言，颇高的债券收益率又是资本市场的一道难题。第一，公司和消费者的借款成本的提高可能减缓经济的发展。第二，美国股价非常高。周期性调整市盈率（使用过去十年利润的均值）为33.4，而历史平均市盈率为16.8。由于债券与股票是资本市场两类主要可相互替代的投资产品，当国债的投资收益率较低时，股票市场相对活跃，股价高昂自然合理；可问题是现在的高收益率削弱了这种说法。
price earning ratio: 市盈率,最常用来评估股价水平是否合理的指标之一，由股价除以年度每股盈余(EPS)得出,或者以公司市值除以年度股东应占溢利
Most analysts seem to think that the latest equity decline is a temporary setback. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset-management group, has called it “an opportunity to add risk to portfolios”. Economic growth forecasts are still strong. Fourth quarter results for companies in the S&P 500 index have so far shown profits up by 13% and sales 8% higher than the previous year. Tax cuts will give profits a further lift and companies may return cash to share holders via share buy-backs. All this will provide support for share prices.
大多数分析家认为：最近股票下跌是暂时的。世界上规模最大的资产管理集团，贝莱德集团(BlackRock)也称此次股票下跌是给证券投资组合增加风险的机会。预测经济增长的势头仍然很强。第四季度，公司的标准普尔500指数到目前为止，利润增长了13%，销售额也比前一年增长了8%。减税将使企业利润进一步提升，公司也可通过股份回购将现金返还给股东。所有这些现象都将为股价上涨提供支撑。
Meanwhile inflation worries seem premature. Core inflation in America (excluding food and energy) is just 1.5%. Despite a higher oil price, Bloomberg’s commodity index is nearly where it was a year ago. The same goes for American inflation expectations, as measured in the bond market.
与此同时，人们对于通货膨胀的担心似乎为时过早。美国的核心通货膨胀（包括食物和能源）只增加了1.5%。尽管石油价格上涨，彭博的大宗商品指数接近一年前的水平。通过债券市场计算出的预期通胀率，也是一样接近一年前的水平。
Two issues will determine whether analysts are right to be sanguine. The first is whether the recent gyrations in the stock market were reactive, responding to the recent rise in bond yields, or predictive, in the sense of spotting future trouble.
两个问题将决定分析师的乐观态度是否正确。第一个问题是，最近股市的波动是否是反应性的，是对近期债券收益上升的反应，还是预测性的，对未来发生麻烦的预测。
The second relates to the theories of Hyman Minsky, an economist who argued that when growth has been strong for a while, investors tend to take more risk. This risk eventually rebounds on them, just as in 2007, when subprime mortgage loans proved worthless. Perhaps the slump in volatility-based funds or even crypto-currencies could cause a crisis at some financial institution, inflicting a dent in confidence more generally.
第二个问题与经济学家海曼·明斯基(Hyman Minsky)的理论有关。他认为，经济增长势头强劲时，投资者往往会承担更多风险。而且这种风险最终会反弹到他们自己身上。就像2007年一样，当时次级抵押贷款被证明毫无价值。或许，基于波动性的基金、甚至是加密货币的暴跌，可能会在某些金融机构引发一场危机，从而这种信心的缺失会波及到整个市场。
For the moment such dangers seem possibilities rather than probabilities. But like a horror-movie audience, once investors have been scared once, they may prove twitchy for a while.
就目前而言，这种危险似乎是可能存在而非可能发生的。但就像恐怖电影的观众一样，一旦投资者被吓到了，他们就可能会在一段时间内变得焦躁不安。
翻译组：
Vivian，女，国际商务硕士，经济学人爱好者
Top，女，翻译专业大三学生，经济学人爱好者
Jasmine，女，税收专业大三学生，经济学人爱好者
校核组：
Emily，女，金融民工，经济学人粉丝
Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝
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观点 |评论|思考
本次观点由金融民工Lulu全权执笔
划重点：单身
2018年2月6日，A股收盘5分钟后，我们的小呆同学开始放声大哭：美股崩完，币市崩，币市崩完，A股崩，A股崩完，楼市崩，楼市崩完，人也崩。
这看起来是一场由美股暴跌引发的一场血案。内外无不充斥着一种声音，每逢7/8年份要高度警惕金融危机，而这种类似于魔咒的周期性因子，却是有着历史数据作为强支撑的—1987年美国华尔街股市噩梦，10月19日成为金融历史上的黑色星期一（也就是TE本文中提到的道琼斯指数单日大跌23%）；1997-98年亚洲金融危机爆发，在索罗斯率领的包括量子基金等在内的投机资本席卷东南亚，亚洲四小龙四小虎的经济增长戛然而止；2008年次贷危机，美国经济遭遇重创，又通过美元把危机输出到全球，引发2010年欧债危机，影响深远，各个国家直到现在没有完全停药。
时间再挪回到又一个十年后的2018年，这次又是什么开启了混乱模式？TE文章里做出了一些解释，一是投资者对过去8年的上涨行情几乎有了一个惯性思维（一个典型例子是XIV的15亿市值，七年中翻了15倍，而2月5日只要一天时间，灰飞烟灭）；二是反应了在紧缩的加息周期开启后，投资者对经济发展前景的重新审视；三是高企的债券收益率，一方面提高了企业的融资成本降低了经济增长的预期，另一方面债券作为股票的替代资产形成了对股市的冲击，尤其是在美股市盈率已达历史高值的情况下。
而这样的下跌，究竟是对债券市场反应性的现象，还是预示着市场信心缺失的下一个周期性危机。众所周知，二级市场的起起伏伏，除了基本面和价值外，市场情绪也是尤为重要的因子，而当恐慌情绪开始现身，再配合越来越多的机构配置量化投资（程序化交易），大起大落的过山车行情似乎变得更加频繁而短暂。
我们都希冀这只是一个小小的玩笑。但是经济周期的存在让我们不得不上一根更紧张的弦，毕竟在经济开放的情境下，衰退和萧条中，没有谁可以独善其身—倾巢之下安有完卵。比如这次美股的下跌，中间还好好地浮上水面换了几口气呢，而显然我们A股的悲观情绪可劲儿过分得多。即使资本项目不开放，金融市场早就水乳交融相爱相杀。
我们所要思考的是，08年的时候尚有降息空间，而现在本就在历史低位，如果金融危机发生，我们还能用什么应对？
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