TE||Crude thinking
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导读
油价为何上涨
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Crude thinking
原油思考
本文英文部分选自经济学人Finance and economics版块
Why the oil price is so high and why it might not fall very much soon
油价为什么这么高，又为什么不会很快下降？
PERHAPS the most vexing thing for those watching the oil industry is not the whipsawing price for a barrel. It is the constant updating of the theories to explain what lies behind it. In March 2014, when the price of a barrel of Brent crude was in three figures, the then boss of Chevron, an oil giant, observed that the scarcity of cheap oil meant “$100 per barrel is becoming the new $20”. Two years later when the oil price slumped below $28, the talk was of a global oil glut caused by the furious efforts of the OPEC cartel to regain market share. Now that oil prices have tested $70, analysts are again scratching their heads.
或许对于关注石油产业的人来说，最烦恼的事不是原油价格的波动，而是价格起伏背后层出不穷的成因。 2014年3月，当布伦特原油价格升至每桶三位数时，石油巨头雪佛龙公司老板发现廉价原油的稀缺意味着“每桶100美元正在成为新时代的每桶20美元”。两年后，当油价跌破每桶28美元时，有种说法是石油输出国组织（OPEC）为了夺回市场份额不断增产，导致全球石油供应过剩。而如今油价已经冲击过每桶70美元，分析师们又开始挠头（分析原因）了。
1.$100 per barrel is becoming the new $20 全文可以看一下这篇文章
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/03/04/chevron-ceo-says-100-a-barrel-is-the-new-20/
也就是说每桶100美元的石油，实际上去除其他成本，只相当于新时代下的每桶20美元，成本包括labor cost和capital cost.
2.Oil prices have tested $70:
打开链接 http://www.cngold.org/img_date/yuanyou.html，可以查看1月16日布伦特原油最高冲破70.13每桶美金/桶，然后一直回落到每桶70美金以下
In “1984”, George Orwell coined the term “double-think”, the ability to believe two contradictory things. Oil analysis seems to require similar cognitive gymnastics. Three big questions arise. First, why has the oil price more than doubled in the space of two years, against all expectation? Second, why has this surge been met with cheers from global stock markets and not concern for the world economy? Lastly, where might the oil price eventually settle?
乔治·奥威尔在《一九八四》小说中创造了“双重思想”这一新词，即具备接受两个相互矛盾理念的能力。油价分析看似需要类似的认知训练。这就引出了三大问题。首先，为什么两年内油价超出所有人预料，翻了一倍多？第二，为什么这股上涨浪潮刚好撞上全球股市振奋且不必担忧世界经济的发展？最后，油价最终能稳定在什么地方？
Double think: the act of simultaneously accepting two mutually contradictory beliefs as correct, often in distinct social contexts.
双重思想是同时接受两种相违背的信念的行为。和伪善和中立，相似但又不同。乔治·奥威尔在反乌托邦小说《一九八四》小说中创造的一些新词，例如“犯罪思想”(thoughtcrime),“新语”(newspeak), "双重思想”(doublethink),“老大哥”(Big Brother), "犯罪停止"（crimestop）等已收进词典，甚至由他的姓衍生出“奥威尔式”(Orwellian),“奥威尔主义”(Orwellism）这样的通用词汇，不断出现在报道国际新闻的记者笔下，足见其作品在英语国家影响之深远。
Start with the journey to $70. The slump in price two years ago was in part a response to weak demand—with the fragility of China’s economy a big concern—and in part to abundant supply. Few believed then that OPEC would, or even could, cut output. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, appeared to have every reason not to. Plentiful oil supply would check the growth of the shale-oil industry in North America. It would also stymie Iran, its bitter rival, which was back in the market following the lifting of sanctions.
我们先从70美元（现在油价一直围绕70左右波动）之路的起点说起。两年前油价的暴跌，一部分原因是由于需求疲软（中国经济放缓引发担忧），另一部分原因是由于供应过剩。那时几乎没人觉得石油输出国组织（OPETC）会同意减产。世界最大石油输出国沙特阿拉伯是有充分理由不减产的，充足的石油供应不仅可以抑制北美页岩油产业发展，同时还能制约死对头伊朗（西方制裁解除后，伊朗重返国际石油市场）。
1.Check: to control sth, or to stop something from increasing or getting worse 控制，抑制，阻止
2.Bitter : feeling angry and unhappy because you feel that you have been treated unfairly 愤愤不平的
Yet demand recovered quickly. China pepped up its economy with faster credit growth and other fillips to spending. Commodity prices surged. Within months clear signs of a broad-based global economic upswing were palpable. And OPEC proved better able to curb production than anyone had imagined. A deal reached in November 2016 to restrict output had little immediate effect but by late last year started to pay off. Oil stocks fell, notably in America (see left-hand chart). Demand was outstripping supply. Prices duly rose.
然而需求很快得以恢复。中国通过信贷快速增长以及刺激消费促使经济重新焕发活力。于是，大宗商品价格飞速上涨。短短几个月，有明显迹象表明全球经济已经开始全面复苏。事实证明，石油输出国组织（OPEC）比任何人想象的都能更更好地控制产量。2016年11月达成的一项减产协议虽没有起到立竿见影的效果，但从2017年年底开始已经奏效。石油库存下降，美国尤为明显（见上图）。需求超过供给，价格应声上扬。
It is still surprising they have risen so far. Higher prices are often blamed in part on the messy politics of the Middle East. The usual worries are there but “there has been no impact on physical supply,” says Martijn Rats of MorganStanley. Shale was also seen as the oil industry’s flexible response to price signals. Too high, and the wildcatters in Texas would drill for fresh supply. But small producers are showing a new restraint, because their financiers want greater focus on profits and less on output. And it takes several months from drilling wells for oil to come on-stream.
然而，石油价格上涨如此之快实在令人惊讶。中东地区混乱的政治往往被认为是石油价格上涨的罪魁祸首，摩根史丹利Martijn Rats表示，地缘隐忧确实存在，但对实际供给并未产生影响。” 页岩油也被视为石油产业价格变动的风向标。如果石油价格太高，德克萨斯州的石油投机者们（野猫）就会增加页岩油开采。但小规模页岩开采商面临新挑战，因为相对于产量来说，他们更关注利润。而且从钻探油井到投产需耗费数月时间。
1.The messy politics of the Middle East：卡塔尔危机、沙特王室的反腐风暴、委内瑞拉危机（南美）和伊朗危机，这些地缘政治事件持续不断地出现，对国际油价上涨起到推波助澜的作用
2.Wildcatters：美国成千上万的石油投机者们（英文称他们为wildcatters, 意思是野猫）以三寸不烂之舌，辅之以海枯石烂的决心与毅力，谈判了数以亿计公顷的土地开采租约，通过租赁金支付加上成功后的分成许诺，彻彻底底地盘活了沉睡在页岩层上的巨大规模土地。
The financial markets show little sign of anxiety about the oil-price surge. Stockmarkets remain buoyant, which is itself another puzzle. Since the oil shocks of the 1970s, markets have associated a sudden run-up in oil prices with economic calamity. The world is both producer and consumer of oil, so in principle the overall effect of oil-price increases is neutral. But in practice, the net impact had been to reduce global demand, because oil exporters in the Middle East tended to save a big chunk of the windfall income they gained at the expense of oil consumers in the West.
令人疑惑的是，资本市场对石油价格暴涨并未表现出任何焦虑的迹象，而且股票市场依然保持活跃。自上世纪七十年代石油危机以来，石油价格的突然上涨常常伴随着经济萧条。这个世界即是石油生产者，又是石油的消费者，所以从原则上来说，石油价格上涨的整体影响应该是中性的。但实际上，真正的影响是去减少全球对于石油的需求，因为中东的石油出口者更倾向牺牲西方国家的消费者的利益而牟取暴利。
Over time, however, the rich world has become less reliant on oil. Demand in America peaked in 2005, for instance. Meanwhile, oil exporters became ever more dependent on high oil prices to pay for lavish government budgets and imported consumer goods. Most of the big oil producers in the Middle East need an oil price above $40 to cover their import bill.
但是久而久之，发达国家对于石油的依赖程度已经逐步降低，例如美国对于石油的依赖程度在2005年达到顶峰，与此同时，石油出口国也空前的依赖高油价，以实现政府预算平衡和抵消进口消费。中东地区的多数大型石油生产国都需要油价高于每桶40美元才能实现收支平衡 。
In this new arrangement, dearer oil is both far less damaging to rich-world consumers and soothes the strained finances of the big oil exporters, not just in the Middle East but in Africa, too. For all the other trouble-spots, investors seem to find the world economy a safer place. And they have other reasons to feel cheery. The shale industry means that dearer oil is a shot in the arm for investment in America, which adds to GDP growth. And a rising oil price is taken as a sign of healthy growth in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
在这种新形势下，高油价对发达国家消费者的危害要小很多，并且缓解了中东乃至非洲等大型石油出口国的紧张的财政状况。对于其他动荡地区的投资者来说，他们似乎找到了世界经济的避风港（石油）。同时值得欣喜的还有, 页岩油产业意味着高油价给美国的投资市场打了一针强心剂， 推升GDP增长。中国作为世界最大的石油进口国，也将油价上涨视为经济稳定健康增长的标志。
1.Soothe: to make a tense or painful part of your body feel more comfortable 减轻，缓解
2.Trouble-spots：A trouble spot is a country or an area of a country where there is repeated fighting. 动乱国家; 动荡地区
3.A shot in the arm: an encouraging stimulus 强有力的促进因素，一剂兴奋剂
Beneath the dramatic ups and downs in the oil price and its changing influence on the world economy are some big themes: the rise of the shale-oil industry and how OPEC responds; the dependence of the big oil exporters in the Middle East on high oil prices; the peak in oil demand in America and eventually elsewhere. These forces will have a big say in where oil prices eventually settle.
在石油价格剧烈波动以及其对世界经济的影响下，这些都是一些重要的主题： 日益兴起的的页岩油产业以及石油输出国组织（OPEC）的应对措施；中东大型石油出口国对于高油价的依赖；美国乃至其他国家对于石油需求的峰值。这些推动因素都对石油价格的最终的稳定将发挥重要作用。
How they will play out is the subject of a new paper by Spencer Dale, chief economist of BP, another oil giant. The critical change in the oil market, he argues, is from perceived scarcity to abundance. When oil was considered scarce and expensive to find, it seemed wise to ration it. It was more like an asset than a consumer good: oil in the ground was like money in the bank. But new sources of supply, such as shale oil, and improved recovery rates of existing reserves, along with the emergence of mass-market electric vehicles, have changed the reckoning. There is a fair chance that much of the world’s recoverable oil will never be extracted, because it will not be needed. It thus makes sense for the five big producers in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait), which can extract oil for less than $10 a barrel, to undercut high-cost producers and capture market share while the demand is there. The financial logic has changed to “better to have money in the bank than oil in the ground,” notes Mr Dale.
另一家石油巨头BP的首席经济学家斯宾塞·戴尔（Spencer Dale）是最新发表的论文就是以此为主题，探讨了石油定价的影响因素。他认为石油市场的重大变化是因为石油供给从稀缺到富足。当石油资源匮乏，还要花费巨额开采时，定量分配则看似为一个明智之举：以往，石油更像是一种资产而不是一件消费品，储存在地下的石油好比银行里的存款。但是随着石油新的供应源的增加，如页岩油的开采，现有石油储存量回收率的提高，加上电动车市场的蓬勃兴起，石油估算发生了变动。由于需求量降低，世界上大多数可采石油很有可能不需被开采出来。因此，中东的五大产油国（沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、伊朗、伊拉克和科威特）开采的石油每桶定价可低于10美元，从而削弱高成本石油生产国，并在需求不变的情况下抢占市场份额。戴尔表示，这体现了金钱逻辑的转变，即“地下的石油比不上银行里的存款收益高”。
Does that mean oil prices are poised to plummet? Probably not, unless shale producers ramp up output again. The peak in global oil demand might be decades away, argues Mr Dale, and it will not tail off sharply. And for now, the big oil exporters cannot sustain very low oil prices for long. Their “social cost” of production, taking in government spending reliant on oil revenue, is about $60 a barrel on average. Sustaining an oil price close to the cost of extraction will require reforms, which do not usually happen quickly. Translated into doublespeak: oil prices are too high; but they may not fall, in large part because big oil producers have got used to them.
这是不是就意味着石油价格即将暴跌？也许不会，除非页岩油产量再次猛增。戴尔说道，全球石油需求高峰期可能要持续数十年，才开始慢慢地减少。目前，大型石油出口国无法长期维持低油价，政府支出依赖于石油收入，算上这一点，石油生产的“社会成本”需油价达到平均每桶60美元左右才能达到平衡。将石油价格维持在接近开采成本需要通过改革才能实现，而这样的改革短时间内不会出现。模棱两可地说，石油价格太高，但短期内可能不会下跌，因为大型石油生产国已经对此习以为常。
1.Tail off: to become smaller or weaker 变得越来越小， 逐渐消失
2.Doublespeak：language that is intended to make people believe sth which is not true, or that can be understood in two different ways 磨棱两可的用词，含糊其辞的说法
翻译组：
Sue，女，影视行业，经济学人爱好者
Olivia，女，教育行业，经济学人爱好者
Meiling，女，机械贸易行业，经济学人爱好者
校核组：
Emily，女，金融民工，经济学人爱好者
Damon，男，钢管搬运工，经济学人铸铁粉
Fiona， 女 ，教雅思的民工， 经济学人爱好者
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观点 |评论|思考
本次观点由金融民工Lulu全权执笔
划重点：单身
2017年群舞翩跹的黑天鹅当中最闪耀的一只当属区块链和数字货币的崛起，而回首2014年，最大的黑天鹅事件莫过于国际原油价格的暴跌。正如，春夏秋冬，四季更替，没有永远上涨的比特币，也没有永远下跌的原油，各种资产价格，伴随着经济周期，无非都在行使着属于自己的一个个轮回使命。
原油价格的起起落落，呈现一定的周期性，而影响一个资产价格的主要因素就是在于它的需求曲线和供给曲线，这也是跟经济学人这篇文章，在论述为什么2016年年初原油价格跌入谷底，而在随后的两年时间内又上涨50%的分析脉络是基本契合的。
首先我们来看需求端，原油的需求与价格呈现正相关，而对原油需求产生紧密相关联系的，就是全球经济的发展状况。以最近的经济周期为例，2009年到2014年是原油从40美元每桶回升至三位数的一个期间，中间伴随着剧烈的震荡，但是总体趋势是向上走的，其中一个主要的因素是处于08年全球金融危机的复苏及高速发展阶段，自然需求巨大。
其次我们来看供给端，那么相对应的原油的供给与价格呈现负相关，而能够影响全球原油供应，进而影响其价格走势的，OPEC和美国是其中的主要势力。比如引起2014年年中开始的原油价格断崖式下跌的一个重要原因，就是美国页岩油产量的井喷式增长，以及OPEC成员国通过增产降价试图挤压美国等新兴产业，抢占市场份额，终而导致原油产能过剩。
除了上述所说的原因之外，原油的价格还具有非常强烈的政治属性和金融属性。
说起政治属性，其实可以观察到历史上几次大的油价上涨，都跟中东那些不安分的国家，加上就爱搞事情的美国，时不时发生个战争有关。文章中提到的，中东国家的混乱因素会导致油价的上升，就是这么个道理。
再说到金融属性，这边就不得不提到，现在对全球油价都有举足轻重影响的中国需求，比方说，在中国政府投入大量的信贷资源刺激经济增长的同时，一不小心就带动了了全球原油的价格。另一方面，还有持续走软的美元指数的影响，毕竟原油是用美元计价的。
但这两个属性的影响其实最终还是可以归结为需求和供给的影响，那其中的逻辑各位老铁可以自己想一想。
而最终，所有因素的相融合，才带来了多空双方的焦灼，这也正是市场的魅力。
不过我最关心，加满一箱油，又要多花几块？
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