Geopolitics and business 地缘政治和商业 | 经济学人精读笔记
选自 TE20210605，Leaders
America and C now dominate global business. That is a wake-up call for other countries.
wake-up call 警钟
美国和 C 现在主导着全球商业，这给其它国家敲响了警钟。
Twenty years ago this week the share price of a startup run by an obsessive called Jeff Bezos had slumped by 71% over 12 months. Amazon’s near-death experience was part of the dotcom crash that exposed Silicon Valley’s hubris and, along with the $14bn fraud at Enron, shattered confidence in American business. There was little sign that it could create a culture of entrepreneurship. Instead the bright hope was in Europe, where a new single currency promised to catalyse a giant business-friendly integrated market.
near-death experience 濒临破产的经历
the dotcom crash 互联网泡沫破灭（20世纪90年代后期，互联网广泛普及，由互联网相关公司的过度投机引起的股市泡沫。）
to shatter confidence in American business 粉碎人们对美国企业的信心
a culture of entrepreneurship 一种创业文化
the bright hope 美好前程
to catalyse 催生
a giant business-friendly integrated market 一个庞大的商业友好型综合市场
along with 跟……一起
Creaking 嘎吱作响;摇摇欲坠
二十年前的这个星期，一个叫杰夫·贝佐斯的痴迷者经营的初创公司股价在 12 个月内暴跌了 71%。亚马逊濒临破产的经历是互联网泡沫破灭的一部分，它暴露了硅谷的骄傲自大，再加上安然公司 140 亿美元的欺诈案，粉碎了人们对美国企业的信心。几乎没有迹象表明它能够创造一种创业文化。相反，光明的希望在欧洲，在那里，一种新的单一货币承诺有望催生一个庞大的商业友好型综合市场。
创业文化是指与社会创业有关的意识形态、文化氛围,其中包括人们在追求财富、创造价值、促进生产力发展的过程中所形成的思想观念、价值体系和心理意识, 主导着人们的思维方式和行为方式。
Creative destruction often makes predictions look silly, but even by these standards the post-pandemic business world is dramatically different from what you might have expected two decades ago. Tech firms comprise a quarter of the global stockmarket and the geographic mix has become strikingly lopsided. America and, increasingly, C are ascendant, accounting for 76 of the world’s 100 most valuable firms. Europe’s tally has fallen from 41 in 2000 to 15 today.
the geographic mix 地域组合
to have become strikingly lopsided 变得极其不平衡
to be ascendant 正在崛起
Account for 数量或比例上占
创造性破坏往往使预测看起来很愚蠢，但即使按照这些标准，后疫情时代的商业世界也与二十年前的预期大不相同。科技公司占全球股票市场的四分之一，地域组合已变得明显不平衡。美国和 C 日益崛起，在全球 100 家最有价值的公司中占 76 家。欧洲的总数已从 2000 年的 41 个下降到今天的 15 个。
创新和改革让一批人失去了原有的工作和经济来源，却又使得新的行业和工作方式崛起。时代的变革，注定着没人能够一直延循着一套不变的法则应对变化的未来。“以不变应万变”有时候并没有什么指导性的作用。
这种“破旧立新”的发展趋势，成为了一种势如破竹的创新力量。这种发展形式就是“创造性破坏”。
创造性破坏是由奥地利经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特提出的重要观点，是其创新理论与经济周期理论的基础。其理论描述的是“从内部不断彻底改变经济结构，不断摧毁旧经济结构的工业变异过程，不断创造一个新的结构。”
This imbalance in large part reflects American and Chinese skill, and complacency in Europe and elsewhere. It raises two giant questions: why has it come about? And can it last?
In large part 在很大程度上
Come about 产生
complacency 自满
这种不平衡在很大程度上反映了美国和C 的技能，以及欧洲和其他地方的自满情绪。它提出了两个巨大的问题：它为什么会出现？它能持续吗？
In themselves, big companies are no better than small ones. Japan Inc’s status soared in the 1980s only to collapse. Big firms can be a sign of success but also of sloth. Saudi Aramco, the world’s second-most-valuable firm, is not so much a $2trn symbol of vigour as of a desert kingdom’s dangerous dependency on fossil fuels. Even so, the right sort of giant company is a sign of a healthy business ecology in which big, efficient firms are created and constantly swept away by competition. It is the secret to raising long-run living standards.
not so much …as…这个结构表示的基本意义和not as (or so)…as…一样,通常翻译为“与其说…不如说…”.
The right sort of 合适的，正确的
Only to 结果却；仅仅为了
No better than 几乎等于
In themselves 就其本身而言
status soared 地位飙升
only to collapse 最终却崩溃了
to be a sign of success but also of sloth 是成功的标志，但也可能是懒惰的标志
dangerous dependency on fossil fuels 对化石燃料的病态依赖
efficient firms 高效的公司
to be constantly swept away by competition 在不断的竞争中被淘汰
It is the secret to doing sth. 这是做某事的秘诀。
raising long-run living standards 提高长期生活水平
就其本身而言，大公司并不比小公司好。日本公司的地位在 1980 年代飙升，但后来崩溃了。大公司可能是成功的标志，也可能是懒惰的标志。沙特阿美是世界价值排名第二的公司，与其说是价值2 万亿美元的活力象征，不如说是沙漠王国对化石燃料的病态依赖。即便如此，合适的大型公司是健康商业生态的标志，在这个生态中，大型、高效的公司被创造出来，并在不断的竞争中被淘汰。这是提高长期经营水平的秘诀。
沙特阿美公司，是一个有多年历史的综合国际石油公司，是世界最大的石油生产公司和世界第六大石油炼制商，业务遍及沙特王国和全世界。它主要从事石油勘探、开发、生产、炼制、运输和销售等业务，拥有世界最大的陆上油田和海上油田。
One way of capturing the dominance of America and C is to compare their share of world output with their share of business activity (defined as the average of their share of global stockmarket capitalisation, public-offering proceeds, venture-capital funding, “unicorns”—or larger private startups, and the world’s biggest 100 firms). By this yardstick America accounts for 24% of global GDP, but 48% of business activity. Other countries, with 77% of the world’s people, punch well below their weight.
One way of doing A is to do B 做A的一种方式就是B
to capture the dominance of 夺取主导地位
By this yardstick 按照这个标准
to punch well below their weight 没有表现出自己的水平
夺取美国和C 主导地位的一种方法就是比较它们在全球经济产出中的份额和其在商业活动中的份额（定义为它们在全球股票市场资本、公开发行收益、风险投资基金、“独角兽”或更大的私营初创公司，以及世界上最大的 100 家公司的份额的平均值）。按照这个标准，美国占全球 GDP 的 24%，但占商业活动的 48%。其他占世界人口的 77%国家，表现远低于应有的水平。
Part of the explanation is Europe’s squandered opportunity. Political meddling and the debt crisis in 2010-12 have stalled the continent’s economic integration. Firms there largely failed to anticipate the shift towards the intangible economy. Europe has no startups to rival Amazon or Google. But other countries have struggled, too. A decade ago Brazil, Mexico and India were poised to create a large cohort of global firms. Few have emerged.
Part of the explanation is 部分原因是
Europe’s squandered opportunity 欧洲浪费了机会
to have stalled the continent s economic integration 阻碍了欧洲大陆的经济一体化
Firms there 那里的企业
largely failed to anticipate sth. 基本上没有预料到...
the shift towards the intangible economy 向无形经济的转型
to rival Amazon or Google 与亚马逊或谷歌匹敌
to be poised to do sth. 准备好做某事
to create a large cohort of global firms 创建一大批全球性公司
部分原因是欧洲浪费了机会。政治干预和2010- 2012年的债务危机阻碍了欧洲大陆的经济一体化。那里的企业基本上没有预见向无形经济的转变。欧洲没有能与亚马逊或谷歌竞争的初创公司。但其他国家也在苦苦挣扎。十年前，巴西、墨西哥和印度准备创建一大批全球性公司。几乎没有公司能展露头脚。
经济按物质性可分为有形经济与无形经济。前者包括第一、二、三产业的物质生产部门生产的两大部类及劳务的价值，如国民生产总值等；后者如汇率、虚拟资本、通货膨胀(是其绝对数价值量,而不是相对数比率)、亏损、赤字、国民收入超分配、无形资产、无形贸易、知识产权、无形损失等，作为无形经济的一个要素存在于整个社会的再生产过程各个环节及其主要方面，构成经济的一个重要组成部分。
Instead, only America and C have been able to marshal the process of creative destruction. Of the 19 firms created in the past 25 years that are now worth over $100bn, nine are in America and eight in C. Europe has none. Even as mature tech giants like Apple and Alibaba try to entrench their dominance, a new set of tech firms including Snap, PayPal, Meituan and Pinduoduo are reaching critical mass. The pandemic has seen a burst of energy in America and C and a boom in fundraising. Firms from the two countries dominate the frontier of new technologies such as fintech and electric cars.
Even as 恰巧在…时候;正当
to marshal the process of creative destruction 指挥创造性破坏的过程
mature tech giants 成熟科技巨头
to entrench their dominance 试图巩固主导地位
a new set of tech firms 一批新的科技公司
to reach critical mass 达到临界规模
to have seen a burst of energy 爆发了一股能量
相反，只有美国和 C 能够引领创造性破坏的过程。在过去25年创建的、目前价值超过1000亿美元的19家公司中，9家在美国，8家在 C。欧洲没有一家。就在苹果和阿里巴巴等成熟科技巨头试图巩固其主导地位之际，Snap、PayPal、美团和拼多多等一批新的科技公司正在达到临界规模。这场疫情在美国和 C 爆发了一股能量，并引发了筹款的热潮。这两个国家的公司主导着金融科技和电动汽车等新技术领域的前沿。
The magic formula has many ingredients. A vast home market helps firms achieve scale quickly. Deep capital markets, networks of venture capitalists and top universities keep the startup pipeline full. There is a culture that exalts entrepreneurs. Elon Musk sleeps on Tesla’s factory floor. Above all politics supports creative destruction. America has long tolerated more disruption than cosy Europe.
Above all 首先，尤其是
The magic formula has many ingredients. 形成这种局面的因素有很多。
A vast home market 广阔的国内市场
to achieve scale quickly 迅速扩大规模
Deep capital markets 深厚的资本市场
to keep the startup pipeline full 让初创公司人丁兴旺
to exalt entrepreneurs 推崇企业家
tycoons 企业大亨
cosy Europe 舒适的欧洲
to let sb. run riot 让某人肆意妄为
这个神奇的配方有很多成分（喻：形成这种局面的因素有很多）。广阔的国内市场有助于企业迅速扩大规模。深厚的资本市场、风险投资家的网络和顶尖大学让初创公司的渠道不断爆满。有一种推崇企业家的文化。埃隆·马斯克睡在特斯拉工厂的地板上。最重要的是，政治支持创造性破坏。长期以来，美国比舒适的欧洲能够容忍更多的混乱。
The recent erosion of this political consensus in both countries is one reason this dominance could prove unsustainable. Americans are worried about national decline, as well as low wages and monopolies (roughly a quarter of the s&p 500 index merits antitrust scrutiny, we estimated in 2018). The Economist supports the Biden administration’s aim to promote competition and expand the social safety-net to protect workers hurt by disruption. But the danger is that America continues to drift towards protectionism, industrial policy and, on the left, punitive taxes on capital, that dampen its business vim.
to merit antitrust scrutiny 应受到反垄断审查
to expand the social safety-net 扩大社会保障网络
punitive taxes on capital 惩罚性资本税
to dampen its business vim 抑制其商业活力
两国最近这种政治共识的削弱是这种主导地位可能无法持续的原因之一。美国人担心国家衰落，以及低薪和垄断(我们在2018年估计，大约四分之一的标准普尔500指数公司值得进行反垄断审查)。《经济学人》支持拜登政府促进竞争和扩大社会保障网络以保护因生产中断而受到伤害的工人的目标。但危险在于，美国继续向保护主义、产业政策和资本惩罚性税收的方向漂移，这些都会抑制其商业活力。
As party officials seek to “guide” incumbent private firms in order to achieve policy goals, such as national self-sufficiency in some technologies, they are also more likely to protect them from freewheeling competitors.
incumbent private firms 现有的私营企业
freewheeling competitors 不受约束的竞争者
由于官员寻求“引导”现有私营企业以实现政策目标，例如某些技术的国家自给自足，他们也更有可能保护他们免受随心所欲的竞争者的侵害。
The more America and C intervene, the more the rest of the world should worry about the lopsided geography of global business. In theory the nationality of profit-seeking firms does not matter: as long as they sell competitive products and create jobs, who cares? But if firms are swayed by governments at home, the calculus changes.
calculus 权衡
the lopsided geography of global business 全球商业版图的不平衡
In theory 从理论上讲
to be swayed by 受到...的影响
the calculus changes 就是另外一码事
美国和 C 干预得越多，世界其他国家就越应该担心全球商业地理的不平衡。从理论上讲，追求利润的公司的国籍并不重要:只要他们销售有竞争力的产品并能够创造就业机会，谁在乎呢?但如果公司受到国内政府的影响，这种权衡就会改变。
As globalisation unwinds, rows are already erupting over where multinational firms produce vaccines, set digital rules and pay taxes. European hopes of being a regulatory superpower may become a figleaf for protectionism. Others with less clout may erect barriers. To assert its sovereignty, India has banned Chinese social media and hobbled American e-commerce firms. That is the worst of both worlds, depriving local consumers of global innovations and creating barriers that make it even harder for local firms to achieve scale.
As globalisation unwinds 随着全球化进程的展开
rows are already erupting over sth. 已经爆发了关于某事的争吵
a figleaf for protectionism 保护主义的遮羞布
Clout 影响力
with less clout 影响力较小
to hobble American e-commerce firms 让美国电商陷入困境
随着全球化进程的展开，关于跨国公司在哪里生产疫苗、制定数字规则和纳税的争论已经爆发。欧洲想要成为监管超级大国的希望可能会成为贸易保护主义的遮羞布。其他影响力较小的国家可能会设立障碍。为了维护自己的主权，印度禁止了 C 的社交媒体，并让美国的电子商务公司陷入困境。这是两个世界中最糟糕的，既剥夺了当地消费者的全球创新能，又制造了障碍，使当地企业更难实现规模。
It's the acorns, not the oaks
这是橡子，而非橡树（舍本逐末）
It would be a tragedy if only two countries in the world proved capable of sustaining a process of creative destruction at scale. But it would be even worse if they turned away from it, and other places admitted defeat and put up barricades. The best gauge of success will be if in 20 years' time the list of the world's biggest companies looks absolutely nothing like today's.
to turn away from it 不去做某事
The best gauge of success 衡量成功的最佳标准
如果世界上只有两个国家被证明有能力维持大规模的创造性破坏进程，那将是一场悲剧。但如果他们放弃，并且其他地方承认失败，竖起路障，那就更糟糕了。衡量成功的最佳标准是，20年后的全球最大公司名单是否与今天的完全不同。
“王不留说”