TE||Sunrise in Tokyo
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导读
感谢思维导图作者
Mayof, 女，大三, catti三级备考中, 比较文学考研备考中
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Sunrise in Tokyo
王者归来
英文部分选自经济学人Finance and economics版块
Japan’s stockmarket is poised for a comeback
日本证券市场蓄势待发东山再起
The big hair, shoulder pads, splashy videos and tinny recordings were hard to escape at the time. But where are the pop stars of the 1980s now? At an arena near you, most probably. Though the waists are thicker and the hair is thinner, the singers and their songs are recognisably the same. In their own minds, they are still big stars. It was the music business that got small.
在那个年代，爆炸头、大垫肩、风靡一时的录像带和老式唱片都难以回避。但上世纪八十年代的那些明星现在都在哪儿呢？很有可能就在你附近出没。尽管他们现在腰变粗了，头发稀疏了，但歌手还是那些歌手，歌呀还是那些歌。在他们的意识里，他们仍是超级明星，不过是音乐市场变小了。
No sub-genre of pop is so lamentable that it cannot be resold to the nostalgic. Might such marketing magic also be applied to Japan’s stockmarket? In the 1980s asset prices in Japan reached a level of excess that made the cocaine-addled pop stars of the era seem like choirboys. By 1990 the Nikkei index of stocks was trading at 60 times company earnings. Then came the fall. But after a long time in rehab, Japanese stocks are creeping back into the spotlight.
没有一种类型的流行乐会令人失望到连那些怀旧者都不再买账。这种市场魔力也许可以同样解释日本证券市场。在上世纪八十年代，日本资产价格达到了超高水平，令那个时代沉迷于可卡因的流行明星看起来像极了唱诗班男孩。到1990年，日经指数的平均市盈率为60倍，此后股价开始下跌。历经长期恢复，日本股票市场正悄无声息重回聚光灯下。
Like other mooted revivals, this one attracts plenty of scorn. Repeated attempts to call the bottom of the Japanese market have made fools of foreign investors. Japanese companies are not known for making shareholder returns a priority. And why invest in a country with an ageing and shrinking workforce? For these and other reasons, big global funds have been underweight Japan. But who can resist a comeback story? For the first time in years, Japanese companies are playing a tune that investors are able to whistle.
与其他有争议的复兴计划一样，日本证券市场也受到了很多人的鄙夷。日本市场多次试图冲破底部愚弄了不少外国投资者。日本公司一贯不优先回报股东。那么投资者为什么还要投资这个劳动力日益衰退的老龄化国家呢？且正因如此，加之其它原因，大型全球基金一直减码日本市场权重。但谁也不能阻止其卷土重来。多年来，日本企业第一次演奏出投资者能够吹出的“曲调”。
注：
1.be underweight Japan ：低估了日本
2.whistle ：sb. can whistle for sth.（表示不给他人所要的东西）得不到，空指望
The key change is that listed firms in Japan are using shareholder funds more effectively. As a new report from analysts at Morgan Stanley points out, return on equity (ROE) has lagged well behind global standards for most of the past three decades. But since 2012 the gap has narrowed. Japan’s roe has doubled, to 9.8% (see chart). Much of the improvement can be traced to cuts in corporate taxes and a reduction in debt-servicing costs because of lower interest rates. But it is also down to better control of costs and the sweating of corporate assets.
关键转变在于日本上市公司能够更有效地利用股东资金。据摩根士坦利（Morgan Stanley）一项新报告表明，过去30年的大部分时间里，日本股本回报率(ROE)远远落后于全球标准。但2012年以来，这一差距逐渐缩小。日本市场ROE翻番，达9.8%(见图表)。这主要归功于日本降低公司纳税标准；并且低利率降低了借贷成本。而降低利率是为了更好地控制成本和公司资产消耗。
A healthier economy has helped, too. Deflation has ended. Nominal gdp has been growing steadily. And the job market is buoyant. Unemployment has fallen to 2.3%. The ratio of vacancies to jobseekers is the highest since the early 1970s. More women than ever are in the workforce—the female participation rate is higher than in America and above average for the OECD. Output per hour has recently grown faster in Japan than in any other G7 country, according to the Conference Board, a research group.
另外，日本经济发展日趋健康化也起了作用。通货紧缩期已经结束。名义GDP增长率稳步上升。就业市场活跃，失业率已降至2.3%。自20世纪70年代初以来，岗位空缺与求职人数的比率达历史新高。加入劳动市场的女性人数比任何时候都多，女性劳动力参与率高于美国，并且超过经合组织（OECD）成员国的平均水平。根据研究机构世界大型企业联合会(the Conference Board)提供的数据，最近日本每小时产值增长速度超过了G7其他任何成员国。
注：
1. Nominal GDP：名义GDP，也称货币GDP，是用生产物品和劳务的当年价格计算的全部最终产品的市场价值。名义GDP的变动可以有两种原因：一种是实际产量的变动，另一种是价格的变动。也就是说，名义GDP的变动既反映了实际产量变动的情况，又反映了价格变动的情况。
2. buoyant.:有浮力的，上涨的（物理名词：浮力（英语：buoyancy 或 upthrust），物理学名词。一般指物理体在流体（包括液体和气体）中，各表面受流体（液体和气体）压力的差（合力）。浮力的单位是牛顿（N）。
Less noticed, perhaps, are changes at the company level. Corporate Japan remains a cosy place; the custom of cross-shareholdings, in which companies own equity stakes in each other, created a core of friendly stockholders who don’t rock the boat. But a recent spate of governance reforms has shaken things up a bit. The vast majority of companies now have at least two independent directors. There are more female board members. And firms are less likely now to schedule their shareholder meetings on the same day as each other—a tactic to deter awkward questions for managers.
容易让人忽略的可能是公司层面的改变。日本公司总保持着友好亲密：各公司之间交叉持股的传统使得股东之间不会彼此发难。不过最近的一波政府改革可能会带来重大的整改。大多数公司现在至少有两名独立董事，董事会里女性的面孔变多了，公司们现在也更不可能会把股东大会放在同一天了——回避基金经理棘手提问的一个对策。
注：
1. Cross-shareholding：交叉持股，是指两个或两个以上的公司为了特定目的而相互持有股份。http://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6608346-1-1.html
2. Rock the boat：兴风作浪，捣乱，破坏现状，多用与否定句。
3. A spate of：一连串，接二连三。
All this is encouraging. But it is easier to change Japan’s corporate culture than its demography. Investors wonder why they should put money into a country with fewer and fewer customers. The answer is that the market for Tokyo-listed firms is not confined to Japan. A survey commissioned by the Morgan Stanley analysts found that expanding into foreign markets was the primary strategic focus of Japanese firms. (Improving productivity was second.)
所有这些都很振奋人心。但改变日本的公司文化要比改变其人口结构可简单多了。投资者会问为什么要把钱投资于一个顾客越来越少的国家去？答案是在东京挂牌上市的公司把市场不止局限在日本本土。一份来自摩根斯坦利分析师写的调查报告显示把市场拓展到海外是日本公司的主要战略焦点。（提升生产率则居次位）
衍生资料：
Japan’s Journey from Laggard to Leader (Morgan Stanley, 2018.9.11)
https://max.book118.com/html/2018/0921/8026013073001124.shtm
The firms themselves are investing. Private-sector capital spending has risen for seven consecutive quarters for the first time since the 1980s. In an economy with a shortage of labour, people are more likely to be open to automation. Japanese firms already hold sway in key parts of the robotics industry. Increased automation will help Japan close the roe gap with its peers by 2025, says Morgan Stanley. A higher premium on Japanese stocks would then be warranted.
并且，公司自身也在投资。私人部门的资本投资从八十年代起第一次连续七个季度持续上升。在一个缺少劳动力的经济体里，人们对自动化相对更加开放。在机器人领域的关键组成部分里，日本公司掌握着支配地位。摩根士丹利认为，更多的技术自动化可以帮助日本公司到2025左右年缩小和同业间的ROE差距。到那时，日本公司的股票溢价就有了保证。
注：
Hold sway：支配，统治
Reaching that target would depend on Japan sticking with “Abenomics”, the expansionist policies of the prime minister, Shinzo Abe. It would also require buy-in from global fund managers. They are used to thinking of China and other emerging markets as the alternatives to investing in America, passing over Japan and Europe as has-beens.
能否达到上述的目标取决于日本国内对首相安倍晋三的扩张型经济政策-安倍经济学的贯彻程度，并且还需要各国基金经理对日本资产的青睐。（即便）他们曾经将中国和其它新兴市场视为在美国投资的备选地点，并且认为日本和欧洲早已是过气的投资市场。
But fashions change, in investing as in popular culture. Time in the wilderness can be used to great effect. In order to have a comeback you must first have a setback—a wise observation by that icon of 1980s popular culture, Mr. T.
但是潮流趋势会变化，无论在投资界还是流行文化范畴。日本经济低迷的那段时期也可以对未来的复苏反弹产生巨大的作用。正如从上世纪八十年代流行文化的偶像T先生身上所得到明智的发现那样-曾经的挫折是为了以后更强大的归来。
注: T先生（Mr. T），本名Laurence Tureaud，曾在80年代热播电视剧《天龙特攻队》饰演“怪头”，在1982年拍摄的卖座电影《洛奇III》中出演克拉伯，在这两部作品中都有不俗表演而名声大噪。他还在1985年跨界进入摔角行业，并且入选了WWE名人堂。曾因作为演员而被职业摔跤手所歧视，然后最终却入选了WWE名人堂。（个人理解:如此的传奇经历可以解释文末的那句 in order to have a comeback you must first have a setback）
（摘自：https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._T）
翻译组：
Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝
Leon, 男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉
Lucia ，女，翻译学硕士三年制，经济学人粉丝
Fiona，教育从业人员，爱爬山爱口红，经济学人粉丝
校核组：
Emily，食物链底端金融民工，TE粉
Yoga，体制内搬砖，爱游泳，爱潜水，爱TE
知识点收集组：
Luvii，英专，TE爱好者
Albee，非英专研究生，英语爱好者
Mayof，非英专，catti备考，考研备考
戴王，动画人，备考英语，斯德哥尔摩式爱英语
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观点|评论|思考
本期评论员
Sue，女，游手好闲者，爱电影爱文学爱TE
说起上个世纪八十年代的日本经济，经济学爱好者肯定是如数家珍。简述之：80年代初，日本开始从重化工产业向新型知识密集型产业转型。1985年，日本与美国签订了“广场协议”，日元升值，出口受到抑制。这时，日本政府决定通过大搞基建，刺激房地产来刺激内需。然后就出现了华丽丽的房地产泡沫。泡沫有多华丽，据说当时仅东京的房地产价格总额就相当于整个美国的房地产价格总额。住房问题已成日本政府燃眉之急。情急之下，日本出台了“硬着陆”政策，于是“全都是泡沫，只一刹的花火”。烟花灿烂过后，是长达二十多年的寂静。
在这段时间里，世界的焦点在改革开放的中国。说起改革开放的这几十年，可谓是红红火火恍恍惚惚。但是近些年，中国也出现了房地产泡沫、资产泡沫、产能过剩等问题。在如今这场危险游戏中，有人作壁上观，独善其身，有人难禁诱惑，与狼共舞。
最近刚读完Animal farm，里面有这样一段描述：Reading out the figures in a thrill,rapid voice,he proved to them in detail that they had more oats,more hay,more turnips than they had had in Jone’s day……数据有不同的统计口径，在不同的阶段有不一样的参考价值。量化确实有助于分析问题，引导解决问题，但也没有必要为了数据而追求数据。好的数据应该是尽可能反应真实状况的。所以即使中国经济接下来的成绩单不好看，也没有必要过于悲观。
让中国经济冷静一下，未尝不是好事一件。说起中国现在的状态，很多人不约而同地说出一个词——浮躁。贩卖焦虑也好，共享单车的昙花一现也罢，上海地铁口的彩票摊和鸡血标语都有着汲汲营营的中国人的身影。正如，日本在这沉寂的二十多年里，通过不断地摸索和尝试，使经济变得更健康。蜕变的阵痛总好过于固步自封的自我麻醉。就像文中最后一句写的：“Time in the wilderness can be used to great effect. In order to have a comeback you must first have a setback……”
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