【新刊速递】《亚太国际关系》（IRAP）, Vol.21, No.3，2021
期刊简介
《亚太国际关系》（International Relations of the Asia-Pacific），简称"IRAP"，是出版在亚太区域最好的原创性文章的主流国际期刊。本刊创刊于2001年，每年在一、五、九月各发行一刊。《亚太国际关系》的创刊目的有二：其一是给读者奉献亚太国际关系领域的优质研究成果，其二是为从事亚太国际关系的学者提供专业的学术平台。根据IRAP官网显示，当前影响因子为2.324。
本刊着眼于：亚太区域内国际关系，亚太与世界其他区域的关系、涉及亚太国家的国际关系一般性事务与理论。本刊欢迎各类研究方法与思想学派。本刊着眼于但不仅限于：亚洲价值之争、后苏哈托时期印尼外交政策、亚太地区投资的政治经济学、日本与美英的“特殊关系”、东盟与中日美大三角、亚太区域主义的兴起、国际机制的作用、柬埔寨与东帝汶的人道主义干预、朝鲜半岛的统一问题、战区导弹防御倡议与地区回应、国家主权的变更：以亚太为例、亚洲金融危机与国际货币基金组织。
本期目录
1.超越内陆：探索中国云南省的国际角色
Beyond the hinterland: exploring the international actorness of China’s Yunnan province
2. 朝鲜的核战略：想象的确保反击
North Korean nuclear strategy: envisioning assured retaliation
3. 国内仲裁机构与外商直接投资
Domestic arbitral institutions and foreign direct investment
4. 寻求联盟外的支持？重新思考冷战后大国伙伴关系政治
Seeking support beyond alliance? Rethinking great power partner politics after the Cold War
5. “强制联盟”与“协商联盟”：对国际联盟“改革”争论的再评价
Between 'Coercive League’ and 'Consultative League’: a reappraisal of debates surrounding the 'Reform’ of the League of Nations
01
超越内陆：探索中国云南省的国际角色
题目：Beyond the hinterland: exploring the international actorness of China’s Yunnan province
作者：刘天阳, 武汉大学政治与公共管理学院特聘副研究员；Yao Song，中国香港中文大学人文社科学院。
摘要：关于平行外交的学术文献往往过于关注联邦系统中的地方政府，而不是单一制和中央集权国家的地方政府。然而，值得注意的是，这些国家的一些地方政府在国际关系中表现得越来越积极主动。本研究探讨了自20世纪90年代初以来，中国南部省份——云南省积极参与跨境合作的平行外交活动。本研究将平行外交的概念与行为体理论相结合。首先，研究指出，激励云南开展平行外交的原因有以下几个：北京关于开放边境的决定；中央政府在管理边境相关问题方面存在效率问题；以及湄公河次区域省与省之间在经济和外交影响力方面的竞争。第二，外部环境带来的一系列新机遇巩固了云南省新的对外权力。第三，云南新的对外事务权力使其能够利用两大工具（基础设施建设和经济治理手段）使周边国家更加依赖与它的合作。最后，云南作为国际关系参与者的角色已经得到周边国家和北京的认可。
The scholarly literature on paradiplomacy has tended to focus overly on subnational governments in federal systems rather than those in unitary and centralized countries. However, it is important to note that some subnational governments in these countries have been increasingly proactive in international relations (IR). This study explores the paradiplomatic activities of Yunnan, a province in the south of China which, since the early 1990s, has actively engaged in cross-border cooperation. Combining the concept of paradiplomacy with the theory of actorness, this study first argues that Yunnan has been incentivized to conduct paradiplomacy through the decision of Beijing to open China’s borders; the inefficiency of the central government in managing border-related issues; and the interprovincial competition over economic and diplomatic clouts in the Mekong subregion. Second, this study argues that Yunnan’s new external affairs powers have been consolidated by a host of new opportunities stemming from the external environment. Third, it argues that Yunnan’s new external affairs powers have enabled it to leverage two broad instruments (infrastructure development and economic statecraft) to make neighboring countries more dependent on cooperation with it. And finally, it is argued that Yunnan’s role as an IR player has been acknowledged both by neighboring countries and by Beijing.
02
朝鲜的核战略：想象的确保反击
题目：North Korean nuclear strategy: envisioning assured retaliation
作者：Dong Sun Lee：高丽大学政治科学与国际关系系；Iordanka Alexandrova：高丽大学和平与民主主义研究所教授。
摘要：朝鲜采取了怎样的核战略?是什么因素推动了这一核战略的发展?本文探讨了平壤核计划的关键特征，从而探究这些学术和实践重要问题的答案。本文认为，朝鲜可能已经采取了切实的报复战略，威胁进行第二次核打击，以阻止美国的核攻击。朝鲜选择这一战略原因是其优越的可行性和可取性。它只需要一个成本适中的核武库，从而减少朝鲜在安全上对中国的依赖，实现朝鲜对核武器在政治安全的集中控制，经济方面也同理。这篇文章对一系列观点提出了质疑，包括朝鲜利用其核能力来诱导中国援助的“催化战略”、“不对称升级战略”和朝鲜使用核武器主要是为了对抗对手的优势常规力量的“边缘政策”。
What nuclear strategy has North Korea adopted? What factors have driven the development of this nuclear strategy? This article examines the key attributes of Pyongyang’s nuclear program to offer possible answers to these questions of scholarly and practical importance. It argues that North Korea has likely adopted an assured retaliation strategy, threatening a nuclear second strike to deter US nuclear attacks. This strategy was chosen due to its superior feasibility and desirability: it requires only a modest cost-effective nuclear arsenal, reduces Pyongyang’s security dependence on Beijing, permits politically safe centralized control over the nuclear weapons, and is also relatively economical. This article calls into question the common views that North Korea has employed a catalytic strategy using its nuclear capabilities to induce China’s assistance, and that Pyongyang is developing an asymmetric escalation strategy or a brinkmanship strategy, which utilizes nuclear weapons primarily to counter the superior conventional forces of its adversaries.
03
国内仲裁机构与外商直接投资
题目：Domestic arbitral institutions and foreign direct investment
作者：尹伟文博士现为香港教育大学亚洲及政策研究学系助理教授，其研究和教学兴趣包括国际政治经济学、比较政治经济学、国际法与国际组织、经济史与定量分析方法，东亚是其研究的重点关注区域。
摘要：现有研究文献重点关注了国内和国际机构如何处理投资者-国家争端解决以吸引外商直接投资 (FDI)。然而，外国公司和本国公司之间的合同纠纷却在很大程度上被忽视了。对于外国投资者而言，能够有效解决合同纠纷的纠纷解决机制也非常重要。本文研究了负责处理外国和本国公司纠纷的国内仲裁机构对外商直接投资流入的影响。着眼于中国的国内差异，本文发现设有中国国际经济贸易仲裁委员会（CIETAC）的省份获得了更高水平的外商直接投资。这些机构之所以能够吸引外商直接投资，是因为它们可以令人信服地表明：当外国投资者与当地公司发生纠纷时，地方政府确实愿意公平地对待外国投资者。总之，本文强调了在外商直接投资研究中被忽略的一个制度变量。
Existing literature focuses on how domestic and international institutions address investor–state disputes and attract foreign direct investment (FDI). However, contractual disputes between foreign and domestic firms are largely neglected. For foreign investors, dispute resolution mechanisms that can effectively resolve contractual disputes are very important as well. In this article, I examine the effect of institutions that conduct arbitrations for disputes between foreign and domestic firms on FDI inflows. Focusing on the within-country variation of China, I find that provinces with CIETAC (China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission) agencies receive a higher level of FDI. These agencies attract FDI because they can credibly signal that local governments are truly willing to treat foreign investors fairly when they have disputes with local firms. In sum, this article highlights an institutional variable that has received little attention in the literature on the politics of FDI.
04
寻求联盟外的支持？重新思考冷战后大国伙伴关系政治
题目：Seeking support beyond alliance? Rethinking great power partner politics after the Cold War
作者：丁鲁，清华大学国际关系学系；孙学峰，清华大学国际关系学系教授，国际关系研究院常务副院长。
摘要：冷战结束后，建立伙伴关系一直是大国之大战略的重要组成部分，其分为安全伙伴和政治经济伙伴关系。统计数据显示，不同大国的安全伙伴关系所占比例存在显著差距。作者认为该差异由大国受到的战略威胁和维护国家安全的方式（自助还是安全依赖美国）决定。具体来说，无论是处在中国战略影响下的安全依赖型大国，还是处于美国战略影响下的自助型大国，其安全伙伴关系比例均高于未处在中国影响下的安全依赖型大国和处于中国影响下自助型大国。这些发现将有助于完善目前的大国政治理论。
Since the end of the Cold War, establishing partnerships has been part and parcel of the grand strategy of great powers. The partners that great powers seek fall under the two categories of security partners and political-economic partners. Statistics show a significant variation in the proportions of great powers’ security partners. The authors argue that such variation is mainly determined by two factors, namely, great powers’ strategic threats, and their ways of maintaining national security [self-help or security-dependent (on the United States)]. Specifically, both the security-dependent great powers that are under China’s strategic threat and the self-help great powers that are under the US’s strategic threat have a higher proportion of security partners than the security-dependent great powers that are not under China’s strategic threat and the self-help great powers that are under China’s strategic threat. These findings will help to refine the current theories of great power politics.
05
“强制联盟”与“协商联盟”：对国际联盟“改革”争论的再评价
题目：Between 'Coercive League’ and 'Consultative League’: a reappraisal of debates surrounding the 'Reform’ of the League of Nations
作者：Shunsuke Obiya，日本东京大学综合文化研究科国际社会科学专业。
摘要：本文从英国和中国的立场分析对国际联盟改革的争论。国际联盟没有成功制止日本入侵满洲和意大利入侵阿比西尼亚，这也加速了自身组织的崩溃；在此背景下，中英两国主要关注集体安全的利和弊。争论的焦点在于，国际联盟应该是“强制联盟（Coercive League）”还是“协商联盟（Consultative League）”。“强制联盟”是指加强集体安全以阻止进一步的侵略；“协商联盟”是指削弱集体安全，引导德国、意大利和日本与国际联盟合作。在大国影响力显著的行政院和小国享有话语权的国联大会上均围绕此分歧展开讨论。本文将英、中两国分别视作大、小国代表。
This article addresses debates surrounding the reform of the League of Nations from the viewpoint of Britain and China. They focused on the pros and cons of collective security because the failure of the League to stop Japanese invasion of Manchuria and Italian invasion of Abyssinia threatened the collapse of the League. There were two contrasting visions in debates, the 'Coercive League’ and the 'Consultative League’. The 'Coercive League’ was the course to reinforce collective security to prevent further aggression. Conversely, the 'Consultative League’ argument was to weaken collective security and induce Germany, Italy, and Japan to cooperate with the League. Deliberations took place in both the Council, in which great powers exerted a strong presence, and the Assembly, in which small powers made their voices heard. Therefore, this article deals with Britain as an example of a great power and China as one of a small power.
编译 | 吕紫烟 李思 王芷汀 戎秦婴 钱靓
审校 | 卫艺璇 黄慧彬 徐一凡 程朵依 姚寰宇
排版 | 杜丛竹 牛子悦