经济学人财经 || 货币市场与美联储都受惊了
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导读
感谢思维导图作者May Li
May Li，我要去追逐心中的太阳，北大临床心理备考中
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Hitting the ceiling
受惊了
英文部分选自经济学人20190921Finance and economics版块
Money markets and the Fed
货币市场与美联储
Hitting the ceiling
受惊了
注：
此处hit the ceiling理解为双关，首先货币市场遇到钱荒，repo的隔夜利率飙升碰到了ceiling；其次美联储也被杀了个措手不及，非常鸡冻地赶紧注入流动性（这点的理解也欢迎大家一起探讨)
The Fed intervenes in short-term money markets for the first time in a decade
美联储10年来首次干预短期货币市场
The federal reserve had plenty to fret about as it prepared to discuss policy interest rates on September 17th and 18th. Trade tensions and wilting global growth have seen businesses cut back investment in the second quarter of the year. In manufacturing, production and capacity utilisation have been falling since the end of 2018. Though the Fed has described jobs growth as “solid”, some analysts worry that the labour market is wobbling. As expected, these concerns prompted the central bank to lower rates for the second time this year, by 0.25 percentage points, to a target of 1.75-2%. But the meeting was overshadowed by turmoil in money markets.
美联储准备在讨论9月17号和18号的利率政策时，有很多值得担心的问题。贸易局势的紧张和全球经济增长的放缓导致企业在今年第二季度削减了投资;自2018年年底以来，制造业的生产量以及产能利用率一直在下降;尽管美联储曾称就业“稳健”增长，但是一些分析师一直担心劳动力市场动荡。不出所料，这些担忧促使美联储在今年第二次降息，降息25个基点，联邦基金利率目标区间下调至1.75%-2%。但货币市场的动荡给本次会议蒙上了阴影。
On September 17th, for the first time in a decade, the Fed injected cash into the short-term money market. The intervention was needed after the federal funds rate, at which banks can borrow from each other, climbed above the Fed’s target. It rose as the “repo” rate—the price at which high-quality securities such as American government bonds can be temporarily swapped for cash—hit an intra-day peak of over 10%. On September 17th the Fed offered $75bn-worth of overnight funding, of which banks took up $53bn. The following two days it again offered $75bn-worth. Banks gobbled it up.
9月17日，美联储十年来首次向短期货币市场注入资金。联邦基金利率是银行间相互借款的基准利率，在其攀升超出设定目标之后，干预是有必要的。随着回购利率（例如像美国政府债券等优质债券能够暂时被兑换为现金的价格）达到当天日间峰值10%，联邦基金利率上升。9月17日，美联储提供了750亿美元的隔夜融资，其中银行占了530亿美元。接下来的两天里，美联储再次注入750亿美元，银行很快将其消耗。
注
1.federal funds rate联邦基金利率
联邦基金利率是美国银行同业拆借市场的利率。最主要的为隔夜拆借利率。这种利率的变动能够敏感地反映银行之间资金的余缺，美联储瞄准并调节同业拆借利率能直接影响商业银行的资金成本，并且将同业拆借市场的资金余缺传递给工商企业，进而影响消费、投资和国民经济。在联邦基金市场中最常被引用的利率是有效联邦基金利率。
2.“repo” rate回购利率
银行间互相持有债券，当银行进行回购交易时就会有回购利率。
3.Federal funds rate 和 repo rate的关系
美国的回购利率源于非银行金融机构没有进入联邦基金利率市场的资格，无法向美联储进行借款。所以回购市场成为了非银行金融机构斩获隔夜贷款的主要市场，而且它的利率比联邦基金利率更低。自此之后，银行的联邦基金利率以及非银行的回购市场利率成为了美国金融系统中隔夜市场的两大基准。
联邦基金市场和回购市场总体存在一种正相关的关系，但是价差却总是高低不等。对于市场来说，回购利率和联邦基金利率能够透露很多信息。比如这一价差会在季度末的时候集中反映资金紧张的局面。同时，这一价差往往能显示市场紧绷的程度或者提醒市场何时杠杆水平过高。
4.overnight funding 隔夜融资
隔夜市场被认为是金融市场的基本管道，短期内需要现金的银行在这个市场进行融资。
延伸阅读：
5.纽约联储十年来首次隔夜逆回购
http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2019-09-19/doc-iicezzrq6826554.shtml
6.联邦基金有效利率与目标利率之间的关系
https://wenku.baidu.com/view/0da4cceb5901020206409c34.html
That sent shivers down spines. A spiking repo rate was an early warning sign before the financial crisis. In 2007, as market participants began to doubt the quality of collateral backed by mortgage lending, repo rates jumped as lenders hoarded cash.
这让人毛骨悚然。回购利率飙升是金融危机爆发前的一个预警信号。2007年，由于市场参与者开始怀疑抵押贷款作为抵押品的质量，随着放款人囤积现金，回购利率飙升。
The latest jump was unlikely to have been caused by such doubts. Most collateral is now high-quality American Treasury bonds or bills. Even so, there are reasons to worry. America’s banks and companies seem to be short of cash. And during the turmoil the repo rate stopped tracking the federal funds rate. This link is the main way monetary policy influences the economy. A gap opening between the two deprives the Fed of its most important policy tool.
最近一次利率的飙升不太可能由此类担忧引起。大多数现有的抵押品都是高质量的美国长期国债或者短期国库券。即便这样，担忧来源众多。美国银行和公司似乎缺少现金。在动荡期间，回购利率不再与联邦基金利率呈正相关关系，而这层关系正是货币政策影响经济的主要途径。两种利率之间逐渐扩大的差距会使得美联储最重要的货币政策工具失效。
注：Treasury bonds /notes/bills
Treasury bills（短期债券）：投资期限短于一年，不支付利息，折价发行。
Treasury notes（中期债券）：投资期限1-7年，半年付息一次。
Treasury bonds（长期债券）：投资期限7-25年，半年付息一次。
Fortunately, the Fed’s interventions seemed to work. The repo rate returned to its usual level, close to the federal funds rate, which in turn is within the range targeted by the Fed. Even so, the turmoil raised questions about how it plans to handle future cash shortages. The mere prospect of them marks an important shift for America’s financial system. Before the financial crisis the Fed controlled the federal funds rate using a “corridor”, with a ceiling and a floor. Banks with too little cash could borrow at the ceiling rate. But there was no compensation for extra cash held at the Fed (the floor interest rate was zero). To keep interest rates precisely on target the Fed used “open market operations”, swapping Treasuries and cash to control liquidity in the banking system.
幸运的是，美联储的干预似乎起效了。回购利率回到正常水平，与处于设定目标范围内的联邦基金利率相近。即便如此，此次市场动荡引发了人们对美联储未来将如何应对资金短缺的疑问。仅这一前景就标志着美国金融系统的重要转变。在金融危机前美联储通过有上下限的“利率走廊”控制着联邦基金利率。极度缺少资金的银行能按上限利率（央行贷款利率）借钱。但是存放在美联储的超额准备金没有额外补偿（利率下限为0）。为了准确保持利率在目标范围内，美联储使用公开市场操作，通过买卖债券来控制银行系统内的资金流动。
注：陆晓明 《美联储利率政策操作体系的变化趋势及未来走向》
http://bond.hexun.com/2015-02-13/173367322.html
Six years of quantitative easing changed all that. To push down long-term interest rates, the Fed bought vast quantities of long-dated Treasury bonds. Its balance-sheet ballooned to $4.5trn. The holders—mainly banks—ended up with mountains of cash. To keep market interest rates at or above the policy rate, the Fed was authorised by Congress to raise the floor from zero, compensating banks for their cash that it held. The ceiling became redundant, as did open market operations. Only the floor mattered.
然而，六年的量化宽松政策彻底改变了这一切。为了压低长期利率，美联储购买了大量的长期债券，其资产负债表激增至4.5万亿。长期债券的持有者——多数为银行——最后拥有大量现金。为了保持市场利率不低于政策利率，国会允许美联储提高利率下限（高于0），以补偿银行存放在美联储的准备金。如此，利率上限和公开市场操作就变得多余了，仅利率下限起到作用。
But banks’ cash piles have dwindled of late. Since late 2017 the Fed has been reducing its balance-sheet by not reinvesting all the proceeds when its assets mature. The balance-sheet shrank from $4.5trn in 2017 to $3.8trn in June this year. Moreover, a wider budget deficit means the Treasury has had to issue more bills and bonds. So far this year it has issued an average of $63.9bn-worth per month, net of repayments. During the same period in 2017 the monthly figure was just $19.6bn. As banks buy Treasuries, their cash piles fall. The surplus reserves banks hold in their deposit accounts at the Fed fell from $2.2trn in 2017 to $1.4trn now.
但银行的储备现金最近有所减少。自2017年末以来，美联储一直通过资产到期后不将所有回收资金进行再投资的方式来缩减资产负债表。资产负债表从2017年的4.5万亿美元缩减至今年6月的3.8万亿美元。此外，扩大的预算赤字意味着财政部不得不发行更多的短期债券和长期债券。截止目前为止，扣除还款，财政部每月平均发行价值639亿美元的债券。2017年同期，仅为196亿美元。当银行购买国债时，其现金储备就会减少。银行在美联储的存款账户中持有的盈余准备金从2017年的2.2万亿美元降至现在的1.4万亿美元。
No one knows how much surplus cash banks need to feel comfortable. That depends partly on regulations, which have increased the amount of cash banks must hold as a buffer, but also on business sentiment. Banks’ near-death experience in 2008-09 has left them with a strong desire to hold plenty of extra cash. Economists have attempted to estimate the level at which banks would start to squirm, most coming up with estimates of $1.2trn-1.5trn.
没人知道银行需要多少盈余现金才能安心。这在一定程度上不仅取决于监管力度，因为监管会增加银行强制持有现金作为缓冲；而且也取决于企业信心。在经历过2008至2009年临近倒闭的情况后，银行强烈渴望持有大量额外现金。经济学家曾试图评估过银行开始不安的现金规模水平，多数人估算为1.2万亿至1.5万亿美元。
Usually banks have at least this much on hand. But they may not have had on September 16th, for quite benign reasons. That was the deadline for quarterly corporate-tax payments, meaning companies asked banks for more cash than usual. The Treasury had issued $77bn-worth of bills the previous week. The buyers, mostly banks, also had to pay on September 16th. The Fed expected these events, said Jerome Powell, its chairman, but not such an extreme reaction. As banks’ cash piles shrank, they grew reluctant to lend to companies and other counterparties. The repo rate spiked. Some banks stepped in, lending to companies at elevated rates. But then those banks tried to borrow from other banks in the federal funds market, pushing up the rate. This prompted the Fed to intervene.
通常银行手头至少要有这么多钱。但由于一些良性原因，银行可能在9月16日时没有那么多现金。（一方面，）这是缴纳季度公司税的最后期限，这意味着企业会要求银行提供相比平常更多的现金。（另一方面，）美国财政部上周发行了价值770亿美元的短期债券。买家主要是银行，也必须在9月16日付款。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)表示：美联储曾预料过这些事件，但没想到（市场）会做出如此极端的反应。随着现金储备的缩水，银行越来越不乐意向企业和其他交易对手提供放贷;故而，回购利率飙升。一些银行通过向企业不断提高贷款利率入场，但随后这些银行试图从联邦基金市场的其他银行借款，最终推高了利率。这促使美联储出手。
Cash would have become scarce sooner or later, says Bill English of Yale University. In a growing economy—especially one with a rising government deficit—the demand for bank cash increases over time.
耶鲁大学的比尔·英格利希（Bill English）表示：现金迟早会变为稀缺资源。在经济增长的背景下——尤其是还伴随着持续增长的政府赤字，对银行现金的需求会随着时间的推移持续增长。
The Fed now faces a choice. It could return to conducting frequent open market operations to pin down interest rates, as before the crisis. Or it could keep the current system and avert future cash shortages by expanding its balance-sheet enough to keep the banking system permanently saturated with liquidity, even as demand for cash grows. On September 18th Mr Powell suggested that the Fed would opt for the latter, saying it wanted reserves to be ample enough to avoid operations of the sort carried out in recent days. He also announced technical tweaks that will mean banks are compensated a little less handsomely for cash deposited at the Fed, which might encourage them to lend a little more in the repo market instead.
美联储现在面临着一个选择。要么通过频繁的公开市场操作来固定利率，就像08年金融危机之前那样；要么保持现有体系并通过扩张资产负债表长久保证银行体系的流动性，即便是在对现金需求增长的情况下。在9月18日，鲍威尔先生表明美联储将会选择后者，并希望保持储备金充足以避免近来情况再次发生。他还宣布美联储将作出的技术调整，这意味着银行通过现金储蓄所能获得的补偿将变少，而这或许会鼓励他们在回购市场上多投入一些资金。
It is unclear how quickly balance-sheet expansion might be resumed. This week’s events suggest it may be soon. As Mr Powell said after the Fed’s meeting, “I think we’ll learn quite a lot in the next six weeks.”
目前尚不清楚资产负债表扩张恢复的速度，但这周发生的事件表明可能会很快。正如美联储会议后，鲍威尔说的那样：“我认为我们将在接下来的六周内学到很多。”
翻译组：
Vivian，女，金融硕士，爱潜水爱运动
Nana，女，南开世界经济硕士，努力学习经济学和英语中
Gloria，女，经济学在读，爱健身爱电影爱古怪新奇的事物
May ，男， 跨界财经、法律、政治，热恋越野跑，迷恋经济学人
Ashley，女，金融硕士，爱宠物，爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝Summer（琚儿），女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐/健康走天涯
校对组：
Jessie Lulu, 金融从业者，爱阳光，爱细雨，爱经济学人
Martina，女，谷歌广告从业者，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济
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观点|评论|思考
本期感想
Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝
这期刊物是19日发刊，美联储是在18日宣布降息，但是看上去稿子像是16日写完然后等在日发刊。
教科书上讲的央行影响利率和货币供应量的方式一般有三种：
1） 公开市场操作
2） 再贴现率
3） 准备金率
美联储影响利率和货币的方式确实是这三种，其他各国央行调控的方式各有各的不同（毕竟书都是美国大牛写的）。美联储影响利率的方式还有一种，也是最最重要的一种，就是federal funds target range，是一种同业拆借利率，因为银行有储备一定现金的最小比例，所以每天结束核算账目的时候有的银行缺钱有的银行多了钱就会相互借来借去，本质是一种银行间借贷资金的成本，美联储会给一个上下限upper limit lower limit，俗称利率走廊。每天会有大大小小的银行间同业拆借业务的往来，每笔业务的拆借利率都不同（两家银行协商而来，只要利率在这个利率走廊里就可以），每天这些拆借利率的加权平均求和会得到一个effective funds rate，基本上这个利率可以衡量每天同业拆借资金的松紧状况。
美联储委员会（FOMC，federal open market committee）每年会开8次会，基本上每隔7周一次，基本上会宣布关于货币政策的调整。而美联储的工具箱，如上文提及的，有这几种方式，这一次在9.18，选择了降息，也就是降低利率走廊的上下限各25bp。
市场会区分美联储的发言算是鸽派还是鹰派。鹰派指的是把应对通胀维持低位为主要目标，鸽派是指把其他目标变量如充分就业等排在通胀问题之前。因为利率不可能时刻盯住一篮子变量，而且这些变量如失业率、通胀率时常走向相反。所以鸽派鹰派的分发更多是出于对美联储更看重哪个宏观变量的立场的区分。
这次美联储传递出的信息总体偏鹰，为什么这么说呢？美联储宣布完政策之后，出了一个点阵图，点阵图每季度出炉。点阵图显示：
所以从点阵图来看委员会内部存在分歧，但是将年限拉长来看，委员会都认为长期来看通胀率会上升失业率会下降，同时利率走廊要比现在上移。所以市场恐怕以此为依据认为将来利率可能还是会有上调的可能，因为后面鲍威尔的讲话鹰派鸽派都有并没有表达什么立场。另外有意思的是，这次降息的决定委员会内部并不统一，10个人投票，7个人赞成降25bp，两个人认为应该维持原状，1个人认为应该降50bp。一般一个个人魅力非凡的美联储主席能够统一大家的意见，但这次却出现了分歧，可见此刻美国经济来到了一个微妙的拐点，连fed委员会都有朝不同方向看去了。
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愿景
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