【经岚传递】探悉美国制造业污染减排的原因

【经岚传递】16L57

探悉美国制造业污染减排：贸易，规制，生产效率和偏好的作用

——[读论文]之“环境政策分析”系列

编译/ ZQ

本期【经岚传递】所介绍的是来自于Joseph S. Shapiro and Reed Walker发表在NBER Working Paper（2015，20879）上的“WHY IS POLLUTION FROM U.S. MANUFACTURING DECLINING? THE ROLES OF TRADE, REGULATION, PRODUCTIVITY, AND PREFERENCES”一文。

文章摘要

在1990年到2008年期间，美国制造业排放的主要空气污染物下降了60%，但与此同时，制造业的总产出却在大幅上升。本文构建了数量分析模型，来解释贸易，环境规制，生产效率和消费者偏好等因素的变化对于污染减排的作用。文章利用工厂水平的生产和排放数据来估计模型的主要参数，然后文章将这些估计值与详细的历史数据相结合，对污染变化的原因就行了模型分解。最后，文章将模型分解的结果与同级分解的结果相比较。模型和数据的发现如下：1，污染排放下降与特定行业单位产出的污染水平持续下降密不可分。2，从1990年到2008年，影子污染税的作用翻了一番。3，环境规制可以解释75%或更多的制造业减排量。

ABSTRACT

Between 1990 and 2008, emissions of the most common air pollutants from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent, even as real U.S. manufacturing output grew substantially. This paper develops a quantitative model to explain how changes in trade, environmental regulation, productivity, and consumer preferences have contributed to these reductions in pollution emissions. We estimate the model’s key parameters using administrative data on plant-level production and pollution decisions. We then combine these estimates with detailed historical data to provide a model-driven decomposition of the causes of the observed pollution changes. Finally, we compare the model-driven decomposition to a statistical decomposition. The model and data suggest three findings. First, the fall in pollution emissions is due to decreasing pollution per unit output within narrowly defined products, rather than to changes in the types of products produced or changes to the total quantity of manufacturing output. Second, the implicit pollution tax that rationalizes firm production and abatement behavior more than doubled between 1990 and 2008. Third, environmental regulation explains 75 percent or more of the observed reduction in pollution emissions from manufacturing.

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