【新刊速递】第36期 | International Studies Quarterly, No.1, 2020

期刊简介

《国际研究季刊》（International Studies Quarterly）是国际研究协会的旗舰期刊，由牛津大学出版社每年发行四期，旨在发表与国际研究中重要理论性、实证性、规范性主题相关的领先学术成果。根据Journal Citation Reports的数据，2018年该期刊的影响因子为2.172。

本期编委

【编译】徐垚晟 李源 刘潇昱 贺凡熙 王馨翊

【校对】董骁天

【审核】金磊

【排版】贺奕

本期目录

1. 超越“可信承诺”：以投资条款为焦点

Beyond Credible Commitments: (Investment) Treaties as Focal Points

2. 自我强化的文官统治：基于计量的军政关系分析

Self-Reinforcing Civilian Control: A Measurement-Based Analysis of Civil-Military Relations

3. 人权在路上：拉丁美洲的镇压、压迫和抗议

Human Rights on the March: Repression, Oppression, and Protest in Latin America

4. 乌克兰外交政策偏好：贸易与民族语言身份

Foreign Policy Preferences in Ukraine: Trade and Ethnolinguistic Identity

5. 共同金融治理的局限：区域发展银行和联合国大会上美国的投票联盟

The Limits of Collective Financial Statecraft: Regional Development Banks and Voting Alignment with the United States at the United Nations General Assembly

01

超越“可信承诺”：以投资条款为焦点

【题目】Beyond Credible Commitments: (Investment) Treaties as Focal Points

【作者】Lauge N Skovgaard Poulsen, 伦敦大学学院政治学副教授

【摘要】国家为什么要签订条约？在关于投资条约制度的文献中，主要的观点认为是投资条约为外国投资者提供了可信的承诺。这种说法提供了很有价值的见解，但并不能解释条约的历史来源。真正的事实是，最早期条约的起草者们明确的排除了“强力的”争端解决条款。与现代投资条约不同的是，早期的投资条约制度并不允许投资者通过争端解决条款（ISDS）向东道国提出索赔。综合三个主要的资本输出国（美国、英国和德国）的历史证据，本文认为这是一个有意的设计选择。相比于提供正式的争端解决、制裁和惩罚机制从而做出可信的承诺，西方国家是打算将投资条约作为非正式解决投资争端的焦点。其实质目标是在没有司法化争端解决机制的情况下发挥协调作用。这一观点不仅具有历史意义，而且对以可信承诺论为主导的国际经济法文献以及目前对争端解决条款的抵触具有广泛的影响。

Why do states enter into treaties? In literature on the investment treaty regime, the dominant answer is that investment treaties provide credible commitments to foreign investors. This narrative provides valuable insights but cannot account for the historical origins of the treaties, where drafters explicitly decided to exclude “strong” dispute settlement provisions. Unlike modern-day investment treaties, the early investment treaty regime did not allow investors to file claims against host states through investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). Using historical evidence from three major capital-exporting states—the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany—the article shows that this was a conscious design choice. Rather than providing formal dispute settlement, sanctions, and penalties to make credible commitments, Western states intended investment treaties to serve as salient focal points for the informal resolution of investment disputes. The substantive obligations were expected to fulfil their coordinating role without the shadow of judicialized dispute settlement. The argument is not just of historical interest but has broader implications for literature on international economic law dominated by the credible commitment narrative, as well as the current political backlash against ISDS.

【编译】徐垚晟

【校对】董骁天

【审核】金磊

02

自我强化的文官统治：基于计量的军政关系分析

【题目】Self-Reinforcing Civilian Control: A Measurement-Based Analysis of Civil-Military Relations

【作者】Michael R Kenwick，罗格斯大学政治学系助理教授

【摘要】时间的流逝如何有助于建立一国的文官统治？作者认为，一旦采用文官制度并经过足够的时间，文官就可以实现对政治的支配：（1）在军队内部形成共同的文官统治规范；（2）军事精英进行学习，从而培养以下信念：文官统治能够有效应对军事挑战。结果是，文官统治是自我强化的。作者通过提出和验证自我强化的制度动力的潜变量模型评估了这些主张。作者估算了1945年至2010年所有国家的文官统治，发现有力的证据表明，文官统治是自我增强的，但这一过程是在几十年中逐步进行的。

How does the passage of time contribute to the establishment of civilian control of the State? We argue that civilian dominance of politics is achieved once civilianized institutions are adopted and sufficient time has passed to permit: (1) the development of a shared norm of civilian control within the military and (2) learning among military elites that fosters a belief that civilian rule is robust to military challenges. As a result, civilian control is self-reinforcing. We evaluate these claims by developing and validating a latent variable model of self-reinforcing institutional dynamics. We generate estimates of civilian control for all countries, 1945–2010, and find strong evidence that civilian control self-reinforces, but incrementally and over the course of several decades.

【编译】李源

【校对】董骁天

【审核】金磊

03

人权在路上：拉丁美洲的镇压、压迫和抗议

【题目】Human Rights on the March: Repression, Oppression, and Protest in Latin America

【作者】James C Franklin，俄亥俄卫斯理大学政治与政府系教授

【摘要】本文以七个拉丁美洲国家——阿根廷、巴西、智利、危地马拉、墨西哥、尼加拉瓜和委内瑞拉为案例，研究了人权抗议活动对人权侵犯现象的影响。作者发现，广泛关注人权的抗议活动和与人权侵犯现象的显著减少有关，从而控制以往研究中的重要因素。作者认为，区分政治镇压（对政治活动家的迫害）和强制性的国家压迫（目标是非政治的）是十分重要的。这两种侵犯行为是对不同因素的反应，但是研究发现广泛关注于人权的抗议活动可以减少上述两种行为。作者进一步指出，时有发生的人权抗议表明，一场声势浩大的人权运动将提高对这种侵犯行为追究责任的可能性，也包括提高刑事司法体制改革的可能性，从而遏制警察与压迫相关的滥用权力、侵犯人权的行为。

This research examines the impact of human rights protests on human rights abuses in seven Latin American countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. I find that protests focused broadly on human rights are associated with significant declines in human rights abuses, controlling for important factors from previous studies. Furthermore, I argue that it is important to distinguish political repression (abuses that target political activists) from coercive state oppression, which has nonpolitical targets. These two types of abuses respond to different factors, but broadly focused human rights protests are found to decrease both types of abuses. I argue further that a strong human rights movement, indicated by frequent human rights protests, discourages the police abuses associated with oppression by raising the likelihood of accountability for such abuses, including by improving the likelihood of reforms to the criminal justice system.

【编译】刘潇昱

【校对】董骁天

【审核】金磊

04

乌克兰外交政策偏好：贸易与民族语言身份

【题目】Foreign Policy Preferences in Ukraine: Trade and Ethnolinguistic Identity

【作者】Celeste Beesley，杨百翰大学政治科学助理教授

【摘要】在外交政策上，个体倾向于偏好其重要的贸易伙伴。文化亲缘性也会影响个体的外交政策立场。本研究调查了公民如何在面对民族语言分歧时优先考虑同贸易伙伴的关系。利用有关乌克兰外交政策偏好的数据，以及乌克兰与其两个最大贸易伙伴(俄罗斯和欧盟)之间的双边贸易数据，作者发现，民族语言认同和相对贸易暴露都会影响外交政策偏好，而这些因素会引入“横切分层”(cross-cutting)  。在与俄罗斯贸易的经济重要性相对较高的地区，  讲乌克兰语的乌克兰人比其他地区讲乌克兰语的人更有可能支持对俄罗斯的外交政策。同样，在与欧盟贸易水平较高的地区，讲俄语的人在外交政策上更倾向于欧盟。

Individuals tend to favor important trade partners in their foreign policy preferences. Cultural affinity is also known to influence individuals’ foreign policy stances. This study examines how citizens prioritize international relations with trading partners in the face of ethnolinguistic divisions. Using survey data on foreign policy preferences paired with data on bilateral trade between Ukraine and its two largest trade partners (Russia and the European Union [EU]), I find that ethnolinguistic identity and relative trade exposure both affect foreign policy preferences and that these effects introduce cross-cutting cleavages. Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians in regions where the economic importance of trade with Russia is relatively higher are more likely to favor foreign policy oriented toward Russia than Ukrainian speakers elsewhere. Similarly, Russian speakers in areas with high levels of trade with the EU have more EU-oriented foreign policy preferences.

【编译】贺凡熙

【校对】董骁天

【审核】金磊

05

共同金融治理的局限：区域发展银行和联合国大会上美国的投票联盟

【题目】The Limits of Collective Financial Statecraft: Regional Development Banks and Voting Alignment with the United States at the United Nations General Assembly

【作者】Anastassia V Obydenkova，俄罗斯国立高等经济学院研究员；Vinícius G Rodrigues Vieira，巴西圣保罗大学国际关系学访问教授

【摘要】霸权国在通过多边机构行使金融治理权时面临着哪些限制？最近的研究表明，由美国赞助、作为共同金融治理的政府间组织（IGO），例如世界银行和国际货币基金组织（IMF），会促使发展中国家在联合国（UN）内与华盛顿结盟。相同的效果在美国的双边援助中也得到了验证。然而，在同样的背景下，关于美国赞助的区域开发银行（RDB）的影响的讨论很少。区域开发银行是特殊的政府间组织，每间银行覆盖世界上的某个地区，同时依赖于发达国家（赞助方）和发展中国家（借贷方）的资源。本文作者试图填补关于经济和金融治理讨论中的空白。他们利用截尾回归模型（Tobit model）说明，借贷国的物质能力越强，就越不可能与美国在联合国大会（UNGA）中结盟。除欧洲复兴开发银行（EBRD）之外，所有区域开发银行的成员都产生了相同的效果。这个结果表明有必要对区域开发银行进行进一步的研究，以评估它们是否激励了对霸权国的挑战。

Which limitations does the hegemon face when exerting financial statecraft through multilateral institutions? Recent studies indicate that intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) that are tools of collective financial statecraft sponsored by the United States, like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, lead developing states to align with Washington in the United Nations (UN). The same effect is verified in the case of US bilateral aid. Little, however, has been discussed about the effect of American-sponsored regional development banks (RDBs) in the same context. RDBs are IGOs with unique characteristics as each of them covers a region of the world and relies on resources from developed sponsors and developing borrowing members alike. In this article we aim to fill this gap in the debates on economic and financial statecraft by demonstrating through Tobit models that the higher the material capabilities of a borrowing state that takes loans, the less likely it is to align with the United States at the UN General Assembly (UNGA). Membership of all RDBs but the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) yields the same effect. Results indicate the need to develop further research on RDBs to assess whether they create incentives for challenging the hegemon.

【编译】王馨翊

【校对】董骁天

【审核】金磊

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