最成功的人是最有才能的？未必
We’re often reluctant to credit our good fortune purely to luck.
我们通常不会把自己的事业成功只归因于运气。
We’d much rather put a material gain or positive outcome down to our brilliant intelligence, smarts, skills or hard work.
我们更愿意把物质的收获或者好的成果归功于我们高超的智商，聪慧，技能和努力工作。
But if success is directly correlated to our ability, why do there seem to be so many rich people with mediocre talent?
但如果成功与我们的能力是直接相关的，那么为什么会有这么多富人却只拥有中等的才能呢？
And why aren’t the smartest people in the world also the wealthiest?
为什么世界上最聪明的人不是世界上最富有的人呢？
A new paper authored by a team of Italian researchers, physicists Alessandro Pluchino and Andrea Raspisarda and economist Alessio Biondo, used a computer simulation of success defined by financial wealth to show that the most successful people in the world aren’t necessarily the most talented. They are the luckiest.
由意大利研究团队发表的新论文，作者有物理学家亚力山卓.普鲁奇诺，安卓娅.拉斯普赛达还有生态学家阿里西奥.比昂多利用电脑仿真对由经济富裕定义的成功进行了研究显示世界上最成功的人不一定是最有才华的。他们是最幸运的。
The researchers created an imaginary world, filled with 1,000 individuals with varying levels of talent in random positions who were exposed to random lucky and unlucky events.
研究者们创立了一个想象中的世界，里面有1000个人，拥有不同水平的才华，处于随机的位置，也面临着随机的运气和不幸事件。
Each person started with the same amount (10 units) of capital.
每个人的起始资金是一样的。（10个单位）
Their level of talent (characteristics like intelligence, skill or effort) influenced the probability that they would be able to turn a lucky opportunity into more capital.
他们的能力水平（如智商，技能和努力等特征）会影响到他们能否将一个好机遇转化为更多资金。
After a simulation of 40 years, meant to represent a person’s career, the distribution of wealth looked an awful like it does in the real world, with a small percentage of people obtaining the most capital.
在经历40年的模拟设定后，这象征着一个人的事业期，最后财富的分布跟现实世界中的分布惊人地相似，少部分的人拥有了绝大部分的财富。
“Were the most successful people also the most talented ones?
最成功的人们是不是同时也是最有才华的人呢？
That’s what we would expect...if we assume that we reward the most successful people because they are more talented or intelligent than other people, says physicist Pluchino.
我们可能会这样预想...如果我们假定最成功的人是因为他们比别人更富有才华和智慧，物理学家普鲁奇诺说。
“But we discovered that this is not the case. Instead, very often, the most successful people are moderately talented but very lucky.
“但我们发现结果不是这样。相反的，常常看到最成功的人们才华是中等的，但是却是最幸运的。”
“We discovered a strict correlation between luck and success. Encountering a series of lucky events was responsible for incredible success even if their individual talent was lower than super talented people.
“我们发现成功与运气之间存在紧密的联系。遇到一系列幸运事件可能会导致巨大的成功，就算他们本人的才能比那些最有才能的人更低。”
“This is what we usually see around us in the real world. There are plenty of instances of people who we don’t consider particularly smart but in some way they reach a high level of wealth and success.”
“我们在现实世界中也经常看到这样。有太多那些我们不认为特别聪明但却在某方面取得了巨大的财富和成功的人的例子。”
Of course, you need a certain level of talent be able exploit those lucky opportunities, the researchers say, and this "talent" can be anything from capacity for hard work to intelligence, to actually being hard working.
当然，你也需要一定的才能才能够去探寻到那些幸运的机遇，研究者们说，这种才能可能会是可以努力工作的能力或者智力也可能是切切实实的努力工作。
But talent alone is not enough.
但光有才能是不够的。
In the simulation, the people who had the highest level of talent only made up a small portion of successful people.
在这次模拟中，最有才能的人只占到最成功的人中很小一部分。
“Expose yourself to as many casual interactions and opportunities as possible,” says Pluchino. “It’s also true that if you will still need luck.
“将你自己尽可能多地放在各种互动和机遇中去吧，”普鲁奇诺说。“你还是会需要运气的。”
“But you probably won’t find lucky opportunities if you stay locked in your room.”
“但如果你宅居斗室，恐怕是不会找到成功的机遇的。”
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